Baseball is back, and it did not ease anyone into the new season gently. The first 48 hours of 2026 gave us historic struggles, generational debuts, and enough chaos to remind everyone that October is far, far away.

Let’s start with the bad news. Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, did not make it out of the first inning at Citi Field. He threw 37 pitches, recorded just two outs, and surrendered five earned runs before the Pirates were forced to go to the bullpen before most fans had found their seats. The Mets' new lineup, featuring Bo Bichette and rookie Carson Benge, who went yard, drew two walks, and stole two bases in his debut, made Skenes look like he was still in spring training.

Logan Webb had already given us a preview of his struggles on Opening Night against the Yankees, allowing seven runs and nine hits over five innings. A five-run second inning did most of the damage in what became a shutout loss. Aaron Judge was on the winning side but wrote his own unfortunate entry in the record books, going 0-for-5 with four strikeouts to become the first reigning MVP in MLB history to wear the golden sombrero on Opening Day. 

The youth movement was something else entirely. Kevin McGonigle made his MLB debut for the Tigers and hit a two-run double on the very first pitch he saw professionally. He finished 4-for-5 with two doubles, becoming just the 25th player in history to record four hits in a debut game. JJ Wetherholt hit a 425-foot home run on an 0-2 count for the Cardinals. He is the first St. Louis player to debut as a leadoff hitter since 1949. Jacob Misiorowski set a Brewers Opening Day record by striking out 11 batters in five innings while allowing a single hit.

There is one under-the-radar development worth monitoring closely from a betting perspective. The new Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System was used aggressively in the first afternoon slate, with players successfully overturning calls at a 62% rate across nine games. This is already causing a big impact on plate discipline patterns, pitcher command metrics, and ultimately how we should be thinking about strikeout and walk totals as the season finds its rhythm. Keep that in mind this week.

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🏀 Friday Night NBA: Three Bets to Close the Week

The Friday night slate has some real meat on the bone. Two Eastern Conference games with playoff implications and a pace-driven player prop. Here is your Friday night value.

Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Boston

Boston is a legitimate title contender and TD Garden is one of the hardest places to win in the league. Against the spread at home, their exactly 18-18. Can the Celtics cover against a Hawks team that has been one of the better road ATS teams in basketball this season?

Atlanta is 21-15 against the spread on the road and has covered in four of their last five games. Their offense leads the league in assists per game and ranks first in transition points added per 100 possessions. If the Hawks can continue to push the pace, and make their shots, this stays within a possession or two late. Atlanta is exactly the kind of high-volume offensive team that keeps putting points on the board regardless of the situation.

Miami Heat +5.5 at Cleveland

Cleveland's backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden is as good as any in the conference, but Miami's defense has been specifically strong at taking away the three-point line, holding opponents to the fifth-lowest three-point percentage in the league. If Cleveland cannot get into a rhythm from deep, their offensive efficiency takes a significant hit.

Add in the injury ripple and it starts looking tougher for the Cavs. Dean Wade is already out and Jarrett Allen continues to sit out with a knee injury.

The Heat play at the fastest pace in the league and have the motivation of fighting in a tight, four-dog race in the Southeast division. Don’t be surprised if they cover in Cleveland.

Evan Mobley Over 17.5 Points (-105)

This one connects directly to the Cleveland injury situation, and their opponent’s pace. With Jarrett Allen out his usage redistributes, and most of it flows directly to Mobley in the form of high-percentage rim looks and post touches.

Over his last ten games Mobley is averaging 20.2 points and has cleared 17.5 in eight of those contests. His last five games show the same 80% hit rate. He converts 74% of his attempts at the rim and his usage rate is already sitting at 21.7% before accounting for Allen's absence.

Miami plays the fastest pace in the league, which means more possessions and more opportunities.

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💃 Cinderella is wearing black and gold. The impossible March Madness run just keeps getting better.

🏀 Why Sweet 16 Offenses Mean Backing Player Prop Overs

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

There was a quote from Florida head coach Todd Golden to @CBB_Central that some believe explains the lack of upsets over the last two NCAA Tournaments.

“When you have the opportunity to recruit bigger, stronger, faster athletes…that allows you to raise your floor with high two-point field goal percentage…that just gives you a better chance to be consistently successful.”

In other words, the best programs are becoming upset-proof by getting bigger and stronger to dominate the glass and not have to worry about a bad shooting night or their opponent getting hot from three.

But That’s Not Entirely What’s Happening

Iowa narrowly knocked off 1-seed Florida despite being the shorter team.  The Hawkeyes weren’t any better shooting threes (29% versus the Gators’ 32%).  It was simply a hard-fought game that just went Iowa’s way.  

Michigan is considered the 30th-tallest team, yet are as good a bet as any to win the National Championship.  

Bigger ad stronger helps raise a team’s floor, but it doesn’t eliminate variance. Even in games where size advantages exist, outcomes are still dictated by execution and shot quality.

Lost in the Conversation

Offenses are better now than perhaps they’ve ever been.  CBB Analytics has charted several offensive metrics since the 2018-19 season.  Division I teams are scoring more and are more efficient doing so.

But one reason isn’t just points in the paint, it’s that teams are attempting more threes.  Last season, three-point attempt rate jumped by 1.8 percentage points (from 37.3% to 39.1%).  Now, it’s up to 39.5%.  

The combination of teams not turning the ball over as much, shooting more threes and finding more effective ways to score tends to come from the best programs.  Elite teams separate themselves not just with size, but with scalable, efficient offense.

What That Trend Means for Bettors

There are still some elite defenses in the Sweet 16 and the market is aware of these overall offensive trends.  If offense is becoming more efficient and more scheme-driven, the edge isn’t just in game totals.  The edge is in identifying which players benefit most from those offensive evolutions.

Here’s what Jaxon and I recommend: 

Cameron Boozer (Duke) O4.5 Assists (+110)

Even as an elite program like Duke gets big men, it does not mean the offense is exclusively feeding them in the post and having them use their athleticism to get a layup or dunk.

Take 6’9” freshman Cameron Boozer.  He’s averaged five assists in his last seven games.  His assist rate of 26% leads the Blue Devils.  

If St. John’s is going to continue blitzing guards, then they have all the more reason to throw it inside to Boozer so he can become a decision-maker and distributor, not merely a finisher.  The offensive philosophy and matchup point to Boozer dropping several dimes.

Isaiah Evans (Duke) O2.5 Made Threes (+150)

Who might be the biggest beneficiary of these Boozer assists?  Probably Isaiah Evans.

The sophomore winger leads Duke with 2.7 made threes per game.  In this game, St. John’s plays at the 70th-fastest tempo in America, which means more possessions and, more importantly, more chances for Evans to surpass this mark.

Alex Karaban (UConn) O12.5 Points (+103)

UConn gets Michigan State, one of the tougher defenses still dancing.  

But, if you look at the type of players who have had the most success against the Spartans this season, they are stretch fours and combo guards, meaning players who force defensive indecision and create difficult rotations.

Alex Karaban can do just that.  He’s a wing forward, so even if he’s not the primary creator, he can keep a good Michigan State defense flummoxed.

Add to that he’s been inconsistent shooting the basketball, but his role and shot quality suggest more stable production going forward, and Karaban should score at least 13.

Opening weekend is just the beginning

Ask Jaxon about the ABS Challenge impact, early pitching trends, and which player props are already showing value.

Then hit the MLB sheets to shop lines and build your card.

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