The Broncos’ 33-32 win over the New York Giants will go down as one of the most improbable turnarounds ever witnessed on a football field. Thirty-three points in the fourth quarter alone, after being shut out through three quarters, set a new NFL record.

The wild finish didn’t just rewrite record books; it snapped a league-wide trend that seemed unbreakable. Before Sunday, NFL teams leading by 18 or more points with under six minutes left were 1,602-0. That streak is now over. 

Denver trailed 26-8 with just over five minutes to go, then somehow put up 25 points in that short span. A final-second field goal from Wil Lutz completed what had once seemed mathematically impossible. At the center of the chaos was quarterback Bo Nix.

In one quarter, Nix became the first player in history to record two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in the same quarter. He threw for more than 200 yards in that final period alone and delivered the go-ahead rushing score with under two minutes left.

For a franchise searching for an identity this season, Denver may have just found it. The team that never quits, even when the math says they should.

👀 See the Game Differently with Radar Charts

Ever wish you could see what’s driving a player prop before locking it in?
Now you can.

Radar Charts are live, letting you visualize the stats that power each matchup — from efficiency to usage to defensive splits — all in one glance.

No more guessing why a prop looks favorable.

• See which stats matter most for that matchup

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The more data you have, the better your bets — and this is data that actually makes sense.

We’re always building new features to give you an edge.
Ready to see what others are missing?

🦁 Advanced Metrics Love the Lions

Detroit enters this game performing like a top-five team across nearly every efficiency metric. Their Total DVOA sits at +32.7% (5th) in the league, compared to Tampa Bay’s +5.9% (13th). The Lions are elite on both sides of the ball and rank 6th in Offensive DVOA, 8th in Defense DVOA, and 6th on Special Teams.

The contrast becomes even sharper when you look at point production. The Lions are scoring 31.8 points per game (2nd in NFL) with a +49 point differential, a number you’d expect from a true contender. Tampa Bay, despite sitting at 5–1, has been winning tighter games and ranks just 14th in point differential at +14. While the Bucs’ record looks great, the data hints at some smoke and mirrors.

The biggest mismatch lies in the air. Detroit’s passing game has been lethal all season, ranking 1st in Passing Touchdowns (15) and 1st in Completion Percentage (76%), while averaging nearly eight yards per attempt. Jared Goff is operating with total control, and his chemistry with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta has been unstoppable.

That’s bad news for a Buccaneers defense that has been shredded through the air. Tampa ranks 27th in Passing Yards Allowed per game (275.3) and 28th in Yards per Attempt Allowed (8.3). If there’s a saving grace for Tampa Bay, it’s their run defense. They’re top five in both rushing yards and yards per carry allowed, which could force Detroit to lean more heavily on Goff’s arm. But that’s not exactly a win for the Bucs.

Tampa’s receiving corps isn’t at full strength either. Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are both nursing injuries, which limits Mayfield’s ability to capitalize on Detroit’s thin defensive backfield. If either of them can’t go, the Bucs’ offense will struggle to sustain drives.

Under Dan Campbell, Detroit has covered the spread in 11 straight games following a loss. Coming off a disappointing result against Kansas City, the stage is set for a rebound performance in front of a national audience.

💰 Pick: Detroit Lions -5.5

👀 Top Detroit Player Props

Based on the analysis that Detroit is likely to continue their offensive dominance at home and cover the spread, let’s dive into some high probably player props that match that game script.

Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Goff’s been lights out at Ford Field with 3.5 passing TDs per home game this season. He now draws a defense that ranks 27th in passing yards allowed. Tampa’s run defense will force Detroit to air it out, which is exactly where they shine. With Goff leading the NFL in passing TDs per game (2.3) and Detroit ranked 3rd in Passing EPA, the over remains the sharp side.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions

St. Brown is the heartbeat of Detroit’s offense and a volume monster in every sense. He’s cleared 6.5 receptions in five straight games, averaging 8.0 per during that run. At home, he’s been automatic with a 100% hit rate this year and faces a Buccaneers defense allowing plenty of production to WR1s. With Detroit ranking 1st in completion rate (76%), expect Goff to feed his go-to early and often.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Jaxon’s MNF Touchdown Picks are prime targets in the Red Zone. The high game total (53.5) suggests plenty of chances.

⛳️ Four straight birdies and a moment that meant the world. Nothing beat the sight of his son running onto the green.

👑 Call it whatever you want. We’ll remember this one forever as The Ohtani Game.

🩹 Not the news Ottawa wanted this week. Everyone else has to step up.

🏀 Power Rankings and preseason predictions are here for Opening Night. And so is that familiar, delusional optimism. 

🏈 Texans at Seahawks Best Bets

by Tony Reyes

The Texans' Defense Is About To Rain on Seattle's Parade

Look, the numbers don't lie here. Seattle's sitting pretty at 4-2, riding that #1 offense in DVOA. Sam Darnold's slinging it at 9.49 yards per attempt (best in the NFL), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is absolutely COOKING defenses for 696 receiving yards. But here's what nobody's talking about...

Houston's defense is the REAL DEAL. We're talking 12.2 points allowed per game – #1 in the entire league. Their secondary is suffocating teams, holding quarterbacks to a 58.82% completion rate. And it gets worse for Seattle.

The Texans are coming off a bye week with MOMENTUM – back-to-back wins where they outscored opponents 70-10. Derek Stingley Jr. got healthy. C.J. Stroud is playing like the guy we thought he was, with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two games.

Meanwhile, Seattle's secondary is falling apart...

Julian Love? Questionable. Devon Witherspoon? Questionable. The Seahawks are also ranked 30th in passing yards allowed. That's not a recipe for success against a quarterback finding his rhythm.

Here's the kicker: The weather report calls for persistent rain all game. Seattle's explosive passing attack – their entire identity – gets neutralized. Ball security becomes everything. The Texans built this roster to WIN games like this.

Seattle's about to learn what happens when their strength runs into Houston's brick wall.

💰️ Props That Print Money When The Under Hits

Once you lock in the Under 41.5, you need to stack props that WIN when defenses dominate.

C.J. Stroud Under 226.5 Passing Yards

Stroud is averaging just 215.2 yards per game this season, hitting the under in 60% of games. Now add Christian Kirk being OUT, persistent rain, and Seattle's secondary getting healthier.

When the weather forces conservative play-calling and Houston leans on the run game, Stroud's volume DIES.

Nick Chubb Over 10.5 Rushing Attempts

Chubb becomes Houston's entire offense with Kirk out. He's averaging 11.6 carries per game and hit the over in 80% of contests.

The Texans NEED to eat clock to keep this score low. That means feeding Chubb 15+ times.

Need Fantasy Basketball tips?

I asked Jaxon for some general advice this season. From Pre-Draft preparations to late round swings, there’s a wealth of information here to help you gain an edge in your fantasy league this season. When you try, be sure to include your league structure or any players/tactics you might want to focus on!