The Dallas Stars lost Game 1 to Minnesota 6-1, and the market reacted accordingly. Dallas went from series favorites at around -130 to sitting at +170 in the span of one bad night. On Kalshi the price initially fell to 32% but sharp money reacted quickly, bringing it back up to 35%.

Start with what actually happened in Game 1 and whether it reflects the true gap between these teams. Roope Hintz, one of Dallas's primary offensive drivers, did not play and is not expected back until at least Game 3. Miro Heiskanen suited up but was visibly limited. Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota's goaltender making his playoff debut, was outstanding. Jake Oettinger, who carried Dallas to the Conference Final in 2024 and won 35 games this regular season, had a horrible night to forget.

Take away the injured players, give Oettinger a normal performance, and the start of this series looks a lot different. Dallas finished the regular season second in the Western Conference with 112 points to Minnesota's 104. They ranked second in the NHL in goals against average and carried the second-best power play in the league at 26.8%. Minnesota's penalty kill checked in at 16th with a 79.8% kill rate.

Minnesota acquired Quinn Hughes midseason and he proceeded to set a franchise record for points by a defenseman in his 48 games with the club. In Game 1, Dallas gave him too much room to operate and he took full advantage. That is correctable, and a Dallas team with players like Esa Lindell, Tyler Myers, and Ilya Lyubushkin has the physical presence to make Hughes uncomfortable.

Wyatt Johnston scored 45 goals this regular season. Jason Robertson is one of the better two-way forwards in the conference. They showed a glimpse of what is possible when they combined for the only Dallas goal on Saturday but need to do more. When Hintz returns, Dallas gets significantly more dangerous.

The approximate price of +170 on Kalshi implies Dallas only wins this series 37% of the time based on one game in which they were shorthanded a young goalie having the best night of his career. The actual probability looks closer to 45%+ at worst. That gap is worth betting considering.

✨ NBA First Basket Props on Pine

Stop guessing on first basket props. Get everything you need to identify the most likely opening scorers before tipoff:

Tip Win % – See which teams control the opening possession
1st FG Attempt % – Know who's getting the first look
1st FG Made % – Track who actually converts when it matters
Shot Locations – On Desktop, expand a player to see where they shoot

🏀 NBA Three-Point Props Too Good to Ignore

Before we get into the picks, it is worth spending a moment on the gaps in team three-point data in this postseason field, because the numbers reveal a genuine divide between teams that shoot threes efficiently and teams that shoot them frequently. Maybe it goes without saying, but those are not the same thing.

Denver leads the league in overall three-point percentage at 39.7%, corner three percentage at 44.2%, and non-corner three percentage simultaneously. They rank 20th in attempts. Minnesota has improved as a shooting team, ranking sixth in percentage despite sitting 17th in attempts, which reflects better shot selection rather than just more volume.

The New York Knicks sit at the opposite end of the style spectrum from Denver, ranking first in corner three frequency and converting those looks at 41.6%. Jalen Brunson draws so much defensive attention driving that the corners stay open, and Karl-Anthony Towns has made that it even more punishing. Their opponent, Atlanta, ranks fifth in three-point percentage while sitting ninth in attempts, combining volume and efficiency in a way that few teams manage.

Cleveland shoots a lot of threes (7th most) and converts at a middle-of-the-road rate (13th), which makes their Game 1 performance of 50% from deep feel more like variance than a new baseline. Toronto operates the most conservative perimeter attack of this group, preferring transition finishes and mid-range work over deep ball volume.

All of that context matters for the three props we are backing this week.

James Harden Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-145)

Harden averaged 8.2 three-point attempts per game this season and has hit this prop in 80% of his last five games and 65% of his last 20. Toronto ranks 17th in point guard defense and struggles specifically against isolation scorers who can create their own looks off the dribble. Harden is in the 92nd percentile for three-pointers made at his position. In Game 1 he and Donovan Mitchell combined for eight makes from deep. The Cavaliers are a high-volume three-point team and Harden is their primary floor spacer.

CJ McCollum Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)

McCollum is averaging 3.4 makes per game over his last five and has hit this line in 80% of those contests. His season average sits right at 2.53, how convenient of him to get hot going into playoffs. The important detail here is where McCollum does his damage.

The Knicks are elite at defending corner threes, ranking first in frequency allowed at those locations, but McCollum operates primarily from the wings and above the break, where he shoots 37% and the Knicks are considerably less disciplined. He has hit this prop in two of three regular season games against New York this season.

Cameron Johnson Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-155)

Johnson has cleared 1.5 made threes in 90% of his last ten games, averaging 2.7 makes during that stretch. He shoots 43% from three on the season and 48% specifically from the corners, where he does the majority of his work. Minnesota's defense ranks 27th in effective field goal percentage allowed on corner threes.

Johnson is a corner specialist facing one of the worst corner-defending teams in the playoff field while playing next to the best gravity-creator in basketball. The matchup is close to perfect.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏎️ A 22-year old woman just made history in a F1 car. Mercedes is making progress on and off the track.

⚾️ Colorado just pulled off a rare series win over the Dodgers. One player suspects something “fishy” about Saturday’s win.

🏆️ Three wins in five races and a series lead. The IndyCar field has a serious problem.

📉 Lindor’s read on the situation is as honest as it gets. The Mets shortstop knows what’s coming next.

🙈 Fitzpatrick was running from the best at Harbour Town. The way Sunday finished was worth every bit of the wait.

🏒 What Game 1 Taught Us About the Stanley Cup

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

If you like gratuitous violence, here’s another excuse to watch the fight between the Senators and Hurricanes from Saturday night!  What a way to start their Stanley Cup Playoff series!

But Wait There’s More

In addition to the fighting majors, 13 minor penalties were called over the course of the game.  In all, there were nine power plays in the hockey game, but no one scored on any of them.  

Why We Care Today

We’ve discussed before how there are fewer power-play opportunities now than in previous regular seasons, usually around three per game.  However, as I’ve written about before on my Substack, we tend to see more during the playoffs, and sometimes like last night, a lot more.

But Be Careful

Playoff games tend to have fewer goals.  The physicality, defensive play and raw goaltending all make scoring that much tougher, even with an extra skater.  Pinpointing which games may have more power plays is useful, but smartly betting totals requires a great deal more digging than simply expecting more whistles.

Monday’s Action

Transitioning to games happening Monday night, here’s what Jaxon and I recommend:

Hurricanes ML vs Senators (-135)

One of the hallmarks of Hurricanes hockey over the past few seasons is puck possession.  This season, Carolina held the puck in the offensive zone longer than any other hockey team.  It’s been this way ever since the NHL released this data during the 2021-22 season.  

That’s a really long time to establish a philosophy and execute it consistently.

Even though Ottawa ranks second in offensive zone puck possession this season and third-overall in defensive zone possession, it’s better to back the larger sample size and the home team.  Canes win outright.

Andrei Svechnikov (Carolina) O0.5 Points (+130)

If we do get a repeat performance of frequent penalties, the leader of the power play for Carolina is Andrei Svechnikov, whose 25 points with the extra attacker lead the team this season.

Both teams should have more success on the power play if Game 2 is anything like Game 1.  But even at 5-on-5, Svechnikov’s presence on the top line should mean more opportunities to score or assist.  There’s great value he’ll be responsible for at least one point.

Stars ML vs Wild (-120)

It would be shocking if Dallas puts up another clunker at home like they did in Game 1.

One skill that makes the Stars so lethal is how well they can skate on the breakaway.  NHL Edge data says Dallas posted 142 bursts of greater than 22 miles per hour, third-most this season.  

Even on the cycle, Dallas has posted elite shooting numbers.  Their 10.82% shooting rate on shots on goal ranks fourth in the NHL this season.  

This Stars offense has been too good not to show up for a second-straight game.  They’ll help even the series.

🧀 Stay Sharp for Playoffs

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