Tonight’s game may not mean much, but Week 18 next weekend delivers the kind of drama that football fans hope for. Winner-take-all stakes with playoffs hanging in the balance. The AFC North title comes down to a slugfest in Pittsburgh, while the NFC South championship will be decided in Tampa Bay.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers sit at 9-7 after blowing their chance to clinch the division with a 13-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens are 8-8 after steamrolling Green Bay 41-24 behind one of the most dominant rushing performances of the season. Winner takes the AFC North and the loser goes home.

The statistical profiles are fairly even across the board. Pittsburgh holds a slight edge in total DVOA at 9.3% compared to Baltimore's 3.4%, ranking 10th and 15th respectively. Both offenses are mediocre by the numbers, with the Steelers at 2.2% offensive DVOA and the Ravens at 0.9%. Defensively, Pittsburgh ranks 10th while Baltimore sits 16th. They're even scoring within half a point of each other, with Pittsburgh averaging 24.33 points per game and Baltimore at 23.93.

The differences emerge when you dig into the specific matchups. Baltimore ranks first in the entire NFL in yards per carry at 5.19, an absolutely staggering number that reflects their identity as a ground-and-pound machine. They're averaging 147.87 rushing yards per game, good for third in the league, and after Derrick Henry just obliterated Green Bay for 216 yards and four touchdowns, they're coming in hot. Pittsburgh allows 113.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 15th, but they rank 31st in missed tackles with 114 on the season.

The quarterback situation looms large over everything. Lamar Jackson was inactive last week with a back injury, and his status for Week 18 remains uncertain. On the Pittsburgh side, the defense is gutted without T.J. Watt. Watt's absence was glaring in the Cleveland loss, where the Steelers generated zero pressure and allowed the Browns to control the game. Pittsburgh has 40 sacks on the season, ranking sixth, but 19 of those belong to Watt.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFC South comes down to a matchup between two wounded teams stumbling to the finish line. Carolina and Tampa Bay both lost in Week 17, setting up this win-and-in scenario where the victor claims the division and a home playoff game while the loser's season ends. The Buccaneers are reeling from four straight losses that's allowed Carolina to stay relevant despite their own struggles.

The gap here is more pronounced than the AFC North battle. Tampa Bay ranks 18th in total DVOA at -6.7% while Carolina sits 24th at -14.2%. Offensively, the Buccaneers are slightly less mediocre at -2.6% DVOA compared to the Panthers' -7.3%. Defensively, Tampa ranks 17th while Carolina is 23rd. These aren't good teams, but Tampa Bay is clearly the less bad option when you crunch the numbers.

The injury situations are catastrophic on both sides. Carolina has a staggering list of players on injured reserve, particularly along the offensive line. Their defense is similarly depleted. Tampa Bay isn't much healthier, missing star tackle Tristan Wirfs and key defensive contributors.

Carolina's strength is their rushing attack, which ranks 11th at 123.93 yards per game. They'll try to control the clock and keep Baker Mayfield on the sideline, but Tampa Bay's run defense ranks seventh in the league. Carolina allows 231.33 passing yards per game, ranking 12th, but they're missing key defensive pieces and rank 29th in sacks with only 23.

The key metric is third down efficiency. Carolina ranks third-worst in third down conversion rate allowed at 46.33%, they're terrible at getting off the field. Tampa Bay converts 40.2% of their third downs, ranking 14th. If Mayfield can stay on schedule and avoid long yardage situations, the Buccaneers should be able to sustain drives and control possession.

Early Predictions

Ravens Win Over Steelers

Baltimore is the play in Pittsburgh, even with the quarterback uncertainty. They Ravens are opening as 3-point favorites with their 5-2 road record. Derrick Henry is in the kind of form that breaks defenses, and facing a Steelers team ranking 31st in missed tackles without T.J. Watt on the field is a dream matchup. The Ravens will lean on their ground game, control the clock, and suffocate a Steelers offense that can't generate consistent drives.

Buccaneers Win Over Panthers

Tampa Bay opened as 3.5-point favorites to defend home turf in what should be an ugly, grind-it-out victory. The Panthers want to run the ball and control tempo, but the Buccaneers rank seventh against the run and are built to neutralize exactly that approach. Baker Mayfield will exploit a Carolina pass rush that's generated only 23 sacks all season. The Buccaneers win the NFC South and salvage what's been a disappointing second half of the season.

👀 See the Game Differently with Radar Charts

Ever wish you could see what’s driving a player prop before locking it in?
Now you can.

Radar charts are live, letting you visualize the stats that power each matchup, from efficiency to usage to defensive splits, all in one glance. No more guessing why a prop looks favorable.

• See which stats matter most for that matchup

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• Spot strengths and weaknesses instantly

The more useful data you have, the better your bets, and this is data that actually makes sense.

🏈 MNF Showdown: Rams @ Falcons

The Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons clash on Monday Night Football presents one of those rare games where the statistical gap is so wide it feels almost unfair. One team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender fine-tuning their approach for January, while the other is evaluating pieces for next season.

The Rams rank second in total DVOA at 43%, anchored by the league's most potent offense at 32.1% offensive DVOA. They're averaging 30.47 points per game, leading the NFL, while churning out 6.5 yards per play. Their defense ranks third in DVOA at -14.9%, and their pass rush featuring Pro Bowlers Jared Verse and Byron Young has collected 41 sacks.

Atlanta sits at -8% total DVOA, ranking 20th overall. Their offense limps along at -2% DVOA, good for 19th, while averaging just 20.47 points per game, which ranks 25th. They manage 5.81 yards per play compared to the Rams' 6.5, and their red zone touchdown conversion rate ranks 23rd in the league. The only bright spot is their pass rush, which ranks third in sack rate at 10.53%, but one strength doesn't overcome systemic weaknesses everywhere else.

The motivation dynamics tell the real story here. The Rams have clinched a playoff berth but currently sit as the sixth seed in the NFC. They need wins to climb the standings and secure a better postseason path. Coming off a loss to Seattle in Week 16, Los Angeles needs to prove they're still one of the most complete squads in the conference.

Atlanta is officially eliminated from playoff contention and playing purely for pride and evaluation. They've won two straight games, including a performance against Arizona where they never punted, but the injury situation is catastrophic. Michael Penix Jr. is on IR, and key defensive pieces Mike Hughes and Troy Andersen are ruled out. Drake London is questionable, potentially removing their most reliable receiving threat. Kirk Cousins is essentially being asked to outduel the league's best offense with a skeleton crew.

The Rams will likely be without Davante Adams, listed as doubtful, which funnels even more targets to Puka Nacua, who's averaging 26.6 fantasy points per game over his last four contests.

LA Rams -7.5 (-115)

While this spread might look steep at first glance, the underlying metrics completely justify it. Los Angeles is 4-1 against the spread as a road favorite this season and a perfect 3-0 ATS when coming off a loss. The Rams' elite scoring offense, ranked first in the NFL at over 30 points per game, will face a Falcons defense allowing 24 points per game and ranking 21st overall. Atlanta has been scrappy as an underdog at 5-1-1 ATS this season, but they haven't faced a pass rush like this one. The Falcons' offensive line simply doesn't have the horses to slow them down.

Cousins under constant pressure against the league's third-ranked defense is a recipe for turnovers and short fields, which this Rams offense will convert into touchdown. The Falcons rank first in red zone touchdown percentage at 5.98%, meaning when they get close, they finish. Atlanta's red zone touchdown rate ranks 23rd, so even if they manage to move the ball, they're settling for field goals while Los Angeles is punching it in.

Total Score Under 50.5 Points (-120)

The total is set at 50.5 points, and the sharper play is absolutely the Under. Yes, the Rams can explode offensively, but Atlanta's offensive limitations are too severe to support a shootout. The Falcons rank 30th in third down conversion rate at just 33.71%, they're going three and out far more often than sustaining drives.

The Rams defense has been leaky recently, allowing 30-plus points in three of their last four games, but those performances came against legitimate teams. The Falcons aren't in that category. Atlanta's -2% offensive DVOA and 19th ranking tells you everything about their ability to consistently move the ball.

 🌲 The Pine Line

👑 MVP his second season? The Jets had no answers for him on Sunday.

🏒 Minor League hockey didn’t play over the holiday. Games should resume pending approval. 

🥊 Tip-off turned into a brawl on Saturday night. Now suspensions are being handed out to the fighters.

🏈 The youngest to 300 touchdowns. Still wasn’t enough to get the win. 

⚾️ Six teams and a 13-year career. Another World Series winner is putting away the glove.

🏈 NFC South Struggles to Continue Monday Night

by Ed Egros - Connect on X @EdWithSports

The NFC South's misery shows no signs of ending:

• After starting 6-2, the Buccaneers fell to the Dolphins and will have a losing record.

• The Panthers offense couldn’t muster much against the Seahawks and could finish below .500 if they lose next weekend.

• The Saints needed a second-half comeback against the three-win Titans, but salvaged a win and improved to 6-10.

• The Falcons are 6-9 and eliminated from playoff contention. More on them shortly.

A Pattern of Futility

You don’t have to search back too far to find such dubious football.  In 2022, every NFC South squad had a losing record.  Last year, the division went a combined 28-40 and could go down as the worst quartet in football once again.  

More importantly for bettors, these teams haven't covered the spread consistently either:

Dirty Birds

There’s little reason to believe the division’s reputation will be improved Monday night when the Falcons host the 11-4 Los Angeles Rams:

It’s the road team that’s a touchdown favorite and can still earn the top seed in the NFC with wins and help.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are already eliminated from playoff contention and have had to go to their backup quarterback in Kirk Cousins to finish the season.  Motivation may not be a factor, but the Rams likely should be favored by this much.

Using Jaxon’s prop sheets and AI interface, here are a couple of best bets:

Kirk Cousins O0.5 Interceptions (-150)

Cousins has been average at throwing picks, coming in 14th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks with a 1.8% interception rate.  But, he has thrown a pick in three of his last five games.  With the Rams' explosive offense likely building leads, Cousins will need to air it out frequently to keep pace.

The matchup compounds his problems. The Rams' defensive front ranks sixth in pressure rate (29.39%) and second in total sacks (48). Atlanta's injury-riddled offensive line will struggle to protect him, increasing the likelihood of forced throws and mistakes.

Puka Nacua Anytime TD (-144)

Expecting a touchdown out of arguably the best receiver in football has actually been a tricky proposition lately.  Puka Nacua did not score in three-straight games in late November despite facing two NFC South squads in the Buccaneers and Panthers.  

Typically, Davante Adams has been that go-to red zone target.  But, Adams is listed as doubtful for Monday with a hamstring injury.  With the Rams' top two receivers commanding the lion's share of targets, expect Nacua's workload to increase significantly, no matter how much Adams can help.

More importantly, the matchup is favorable: Atlanta ranks 29th defending opposing WR1s and allows an average of 1.2 touchdowns per game to wide receivers. Nacua should find the end zone, and potentially more than once!

Key Takeaway

Every NFC South team has a negative point differential. Advanced metrics confirm what the eye test shows: this is a historically weak division. The Falcons, in particular, are overmatched Monday night. Target props that back the Rams and fade Atlanta for a straightforward betting approach.

That’s it for MNF this season!

Football content isn’t going anywhere until the Super Bowl ends, but we’re done with Monday Night games this year. Get ready for more 🏀 NBA and 🏒 NHL picks and analysis this time next week!