Senators from multiple US states sent a letter to the CFTC on Monday asking what the agency intends to do about prediction contracts tied to wildfires. Their argument goes beyond just poor taste.

State and local fire officials have raised the possibility that someone holding a position could be tempted to start a blaze or influence one already burning, which drags insider trading concerns into a public safety emergency. The letter points to Polymarket hosting contracts on the Los Angeles fires in January 2025. Fires continue to burn across the Pacific Northwest, and Spokane County announced an arson arrest initially connected to a fire that pushed roughly a quarter of the city to evacuate. The suspect is now linked to over two dozen different fires in the last year.

Kalshi says it prohibits wildfire markets outright because of the incentives they create. Polymarket counters that it does not profit from outcomes and that pulling these contracts only makes accurate information harder to find, while noting it has no active wildfire markets at the moment. Michael Gollner of the UC Berkeley Fire Research Lab called the arson incentive real and argued resources belong in prevention rather than monetizing disaster.

Then there is Kalshi's biotech pilot, which opens contracts on clinical trial results. Former FDA commissioner Robert Califf called it a breach of scientific conduct. A pancreatic cancer patient told the New York Times he is trying to stay alive, not play a game. Now he has to consider the prospect of strangers wagering against the treatment.

While prediction markets, politicians, and users try to determine where to draw the line in the sand, here is our line. Cover markets on games. Outcomes people cannot opt out of are not games, and no amount of money makes them one. Leveraging death and disaster for financial gain isn’t just poor taste, it is a major public safety concern.

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⚾️ High-Scoring MLB Games on Tonight’s Schedule

Three spots today where the pitching matchup and the environment point the same direction.

➡️ LAD @ ARI Over 9.5 Total Runs

Arizona is the strongest option of the group. Chase Field ranks second in baseball for hitters at a 104 overall factor, with runs inflated to 108 and hits to 105. Merrill Kelly draws the assignment against a Dodgers lineup that has spent years figuring him out, surrendering a .370 wOBA and .520 slugging mark to the current roster.

The individual histories are worse. Max Muncy has hit .410 with a .468 wOBA across 46 plate appearances against him. Shohei Ohtani sits at .400 with a .549 wOBA. Freddie Freeman has posted a .313 average and .431 wOBA over 37 trips. Los Angeles leads the majors in both OPS at .771 and wRC+ at 112.53, so this is the best offense in the sport walking into a park that rewards it against a pitcher it already knows.

➡️ LAA @ MIA Over 8.5 Total Runs

Miami is next, and neither starter inspires much in this matchup. George Klassen has never seen this Marlins roster, and Tyler Phillips has struggled to work efficiently. The Angels staff ranks 24th in ERA at 4.51 and 23rd in WHIP at 1.36. Miami's pitching allows hard contact at a .401 clip, 24th in the league, which gives the Angels offense a real opening. The park plays close to neutral at 16th.

➡️ CHC @ KC Over 9.5 Total Runs

Kauffman ranks 11th overall in park factors at 101 but grades 104 for hits and 102 for runs, and its 90 strikeout factor keeps balls in play. Daniel Lynch faces a Cubs offense sitting second in runs scored with 592 and second in wRC+ at 111.56. Alex Bregman is one for one against him with an .882 wOBA in that sliver of a sample. The Royals staff as a whole ranks 28th in both ERA at 4.82 and WHIP at 1.42, with a 4.69 FIP and a .401 hard hit rate allowed. That combination is how big innings happen.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🎰 Dallas just made an outrageous trade offer. One lucky person is sitting on something the Mavs really want.

🏈 The first game of preseason had plenty of highlights. An undrafted rookie showed everyone what they missed.

🏀 The investigation into Kawhi gets more complicated. A new allegation points to a deeper scheme than anyone realized.

🏒 A new deal in Pittsburgh is raising eyebrows. An unproven 23-year-old has the longest contract on the roster.

⚾️ Targeting Pitchers for Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jackson Chourio Hits+Runs+RBIs

Zebby Matthews takes the mound in Milwaukee carrying a 5.22 ERA with 16 home runs allowed, and American Family Field pushes the long ball slightly above league average at a 102 factor even though it grades 24th overall. The Brewers rank fifth in runs at 566 and third in on base percentage at .336, so the traffic is there.

Chourio has cleared this number in 60% of his last ten games while averaging 2/game, and his season figure sits at 2.35 across 80 games. He is coming off a three for four night against Pittsburgh with a homer and an RBI single, and that game included three batted balls at 99.8 mph or harder, one of them a 109 mph single.

With Christian Yelich dropped to seventh, Chourio has settled into the second spot behind Brice Turang and ahead of William Contreras and Andrew Vaughn. He has averaged three per game across three meetings with Minnesota this year.

Wilyer Abreu Hits+Runs+RBIs

Jack Perkins gave up five runs in 4.1 innings his last time out, and Fenway ranks eighth overall with 104 factors for both runs and hits. Abreu leads all of baseball with nine home runs since the All-Star break and has driven in a run in six of his last ten games. He is hitting .254 with 20 homers and 57 RBIs, and 15 of those long balls have come off right handers. His last outing produced two hits, three runs, and two RBIs.

The underlying numbers hold up too, with a 12.9% barrel rate and expected slugging in the 92nd percentile. Thursday's 13 inning win included a tying single in the ninth and an intentional walk four innings later, which tells you how the other dugout views him right now.

⚾ Chasing Home Runs Tonight?

Jaxon has projections, live odds, hit rates, and a confidence score for every player on the slate, so you're not just guessing who goes deep.

👉️ Click for the Home Run Sheet