On June 24, Boston had a record of 32-46, the worst record in the American League. Alex Cora was already fired and interim skipper Chad Tracy was in charge of what looked like a lost season.

The rotation was in pieces. Garrett Crochet, last year's AL Cy Young runner-up, was put on the 60-day IL with shoulder and lat issues after posting a 6.30 ERA in six starts. Brayan Bello cratered to a 6.34 ERA and was sent to Triple-A. Roman Anthony, the rookie phenom, was also placed on the IL and still isn’t close to returning. The offense ranked 24th in runs scored and at Fenway, they were only 17-27.

Since then, they've won 18 of their last 20 games, including 13 straight wins, the second-longest streak in franchise history. They've swept four consecutive series, allowed more than three runs just twice during the streak, and averaged 5.8 runs per game in that span. They're above .500 for the first time all season and currently hold the third AL wild card spot.

The impact starts on the mound. Sonny Gray is 12-1 with a 2.48 ERA and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs since April 14. Ranger Suarez has delivered on his five-year, $130 million investment with a 3.15 ERA and his second All-Star selection. The bullpen has been equally stingy, with Chapman, Whitlock, and Guerrero all sitting below a 2.25 ERA.

Boston’s futures reflect the momentum shift. Their playoff probability has jumped nearly 50 percentage points over the past month and they are finally ‘favored’ to make the playoffs at -145. More ambitiously, they're currently +2500 to win the World Series at DraftKings.

This team is worth watching very closely.

⚾ Home Run Cheat Sheet

Pine’s Home Run Sheet gives you everything you need to pick tonight’s home run hitters:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's HR projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has gone deep over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

⚾️ MLB Matchups Generating Runs Tonight

Two games on tonight's slate stand out as the best environments for run scoring. There are opportunities to capitalize on total runs, pitcher hits allowed, or batter props.

Nationals at Rockies

This is the top offensive environment on the board. Coors Field carries a 128 runs factor and an overall park factor of 113 which makes it the most hitter-friendly venue in baseball. 

Tonight's pitching matchup makes it even more appealing. Washington is sending Andrew Alvarez out for his 7th start of the season against a lineup he’s never faced. One of his only two wins this year came on the road in Boston, but he’s endured a couple rough outings since then.

Kyle Freeland takes the ball for Colorado, and while he's held current Nationals hitters to a modest average in career samples, he's a lefty facing a Washington lineup with several surging young bats. Curtis Mead has gone 19-for-46 with three home runs over his last twelve games. I anticipate over 11.5 total runs here given the circumstances.

Orioles at Red Sox

Fenway Park ranks fifth in offensive production this season with a 104 hits factor and 104 runs factor. The Green Monster consistently converts fly balls into extra base hits, keeping innings alive in ways that other parks don't.

Baltimore's collective .318 average against Red Sox starter Payton Tolle is a significant matchup advantage. Taylor Ward is a perfect 2-for-2 against him with a walk, and Gunnar Henderson is in a favorable lefty vs lefty matchup. Boston enters on a 13-game winning streak with massive offensive momentum.

Over 8.5 at about -110 is good value.

🌲 The Pine Line

🤪 Rules exist because someone, somewhere, made them necessary. No backflips allowed at Giants minicamp.

🏀 Atlanta just added on of the league’s best defenders. It only cost them a couple picks.

🏆️ Out with the old, in with the new. The most dominant World Cup winners of all time.

🏎️ F1 newcomers are climbing the table. Back-to-back finishes in the points for the Audi driver.

🤑 The deal is done in Chicago. The Blackhawks are betting $75 million on their young star’s future.

🔥 Batter Props Worth Targeting

Two player props worth considering today based on batter vs pitcher matchups and recent hit rates.

➡️ Ceddanne Rafaela Player Prop

Tonight's setup for Ceddanne Rafaela is about as clean as it gets. Over his last ten games he's averaging 2.60 combined hits, runs, and RBIs per game, well clear of the 1.5 line. He's recorded at least one hit in 90% of those same ten games. Expand to twenty games and that hit rate holds at 80%.

Against right-handed pitching this season he's averaging 1.90 combined H+R+RBI per game, and the matchup against Shane Baz is encouraging too. In ten career plate appearances against him, Rafaela is hitting .333 with just one strikeout. He puts the ball in play consistently against this specific pitcher and Baltimore's staff has been leaky all season, ranking 25th in hits allowed and 22nd in runs allowed with a 1.35 team WHIP.

Against the Orioles specifically this season, Rafaela has recorded hits in five of six matchups, averaging 1.83 hits per game in those contests. Even at -140, this is a great play for tonight in Boston.

➡️ Garrett Mitchell Player Prop

Mitchell has recorded at least one hit in eight of his last ten games, averaging 1.30 hits in that span. The splits are what sharpen this play: as a left-handed hitter, Mitchell makes almost all of his offensive contributions against right handers. He has 8 home runs and 39 RBIs off a .284 average against righties compared to no dingers and a .269 against lefties.

Tonight he faces Freddy Peralta, a righty with limited experience against this Milwaukee roster. He allows a higher batting average to left handed hitters and over six times as many home runs.

Sal Frelick's placement on the IL has locked Mitchell into a prominent spot in the order, and he's coming off a 5-for-12 weekend series against Miami that included a walk-off single. Current form and a pitcher without an established track record against him makes this a straightforward play.

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