The first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament did not disappoint. Records fell, chalk survived by the skin of its teeth in a few places, and at least one performance will be talked about for decades.

Start with the history. Florida's 114-55 demolition of Prairie View A&M produced the second-largest margin of victory in NCAA Tournament history at plus 59. UConn's Tarris Reed Jr. posted 31 points and 27 rebounds in a single game, the first 25-and-25 tournament performance since Elvin Hayes in 1968.

Purdue's Braden Smith broke Bobby Hurley's 33-year-old career assists record in the middle of a tournament game. And then there was Kentucky's Otega Oweh, who banked in a 50-footer at the buzzer to force overtime against Santa Clara before finishing with 35 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists, a stat line not seen in tournament play since Larry Bird in 1979. KenPom rated this the most exciting tournament game since 2016.

Not everything that happened was celebratory for the favorites, though.

Duke trailed Siena by double digits at halftime, becoming the first number one seed in tournament history to trail a 16-seed by that margin at the break. Historically, top seeds that win by nine or fewer against a 16 have never gone on to win the title. Duke's defense remains the best in the country, but if the offense continues to sleepwalk through opening periods, that trend is worth monitoring.

On the flip side, some teams looked genuinely dangerous. Illinois dropped 105 on Penn behind 29 points and 19 rebounds from David Mirkovic, further cementing their status as the top-ranked offense in the country at 131.8 adjusted efficiency. Saint Louis was perhaps the most efficient team of the entire round, shooting 58% from the field and scoring 66 points in the paint in their 102-77 win over Georgia, the most interior points by any tournament team in seven years.

VCU erased a 19-point deficit to upset North Carolina in the largest first-round comeback in tournament history. High Point won their first NCAA Tournament game ever in the round’s biggest upset. It was exactly the chaotic two days that March Madness promises every year.

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Are Upsets More Common in the Second Round?

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Now that we’re in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament, it’s time for a friendly reminder:

Upsets will still happen.

According to the Sports Geek, outright upsets of four points or more happened at roughly a 20% clip in the first round since 2003.   Guess what it is in the Second Round…

Also approximately 20%.

The upset rate actually does go up slightly in the Sweet 16, but then tapers off in the remaining rounds.  

If it seems like there are a lot more to open the tournament, it’s only because of sample size.  32 games is a ton more than 16.  

Looking Ahead

Nearly every game Saturday has a spread of at least four points.  If the trend holds, two of those games should be outright upsets.  But who?  Here are two Cinderellas Jaxon and I are backing:

VCU Over Illinois (+450)

VCU just pulled off the biggest first-round comeback in NCAA Tournament history, knocking off North Carolina 82-78 in overtime.  If anything from that run carries over into their next game, the Rams will be a tough out.

Illinois does possess the top adjusted offensive efficiency mark in the country.  How can VCU knock them down to size?  Slowing the game down.

VCU’s free throw rate–both getting to the line and sinking their attempts–ranks in the top 20 nationally.  Their overall tempo is average, but they’ve played lower-scoring games against Fordham and Dayton and won them.  

The stars for VCU, Terrence Hill Jr. and Lazar Djokovic must play exceptionally.  But they’re capable, and the value in an upset is too good to pass up.

High Point Over Arkansas (+540)

I get how uncomfortable it might be to bet against Arkansas right now.  They won the SEC Tourney, have one of the best guards John Calipari has ever coached in Darius Acuff Jr. and dismantled Hawaii in its first-round game 97-78.  

And that’s precisely why the value is so good.  

High Point may be the best team in the country when it comes to getting steals and protecting the basketball.  The offense is also efficient enough with seniors Terry Anderson and Rob Martin leading the way.

Arkansas’ defense can be beaten with elite shooting.  High Point will need to shoot exceptionally well, but the Panthers have what it takes.

Even if these upsets do not materialize, there are still player props for these underdogs I would highly recommend. 

Terrence Hill Jr. O18.5 Points

Let’s say another ferocious comeback is required of VCU to knock off Illinois.  That means the ball will be in Terrence Hill Jr.’s hands a lot.

The sophomore guard has gone over this mark in four of his last five games.  

If Illinois plays more drop coverage, that will give Hill more space for open looks, and his 57.8% effective shooting rate means he can make several threes to finish with enough points for an over.

Rob Martin O6.5 Assists

In High Point’s upset win over Wisconsin, Martin recorded ten assists with his 23 points.  Granted, he’s averaging four assists per contest, but a high-scoring game might mean more possessions and more potential assists.

Arkansas’ defense will gamble, so it’ll be kick-outs and back-door cuts from Martin that will keep High Point in the contest.  Expect more elite distribution from Rob Martin.

Let the chaos resume!

 🌲 The Pine Line

⚖️ The NCAA is taking DraftKings to court. Unsurprisingly, they aren’t endorsing the major gambling platform.

⚾️ Baseball is betting on how fans will engage with the game. This deal is unlike anything a major sports league has done before.

🏀 A MVP race is now a fight to get healthy. Nobody seems to know how long he’ll be out.

🏈 A ghost from Pittsburgh’s past is teasing fans. The Steelers might have another option at WR soon.

⛳️ Augusta’s own website just let the biggest secret out. If there’s an event to mark on your calendar, it’s this one.

🏀 Sunday’s Round 2 Spreads

The field is thinning and the matchups are getting better. Here are three Round 2 games with a definitive edge. Jaxon gave us plenty of reasons why.

Arizona -11.5 over Utah State

A point spread of 11.5 is pretty high, this isn’t the 1st round anymore, but Utah State's defensive rebounding makes this spread more reasonable. The Aggies rank 257th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. Arizona ranks fifth in offensive rebounding.

Arizona ranks third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and second in opponent effective field goal percentage. While Utah State's offense is certainly good, 15th in the country in effective FG%, clean looks will be hard to come by against the Wildcat defense.

Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley pressure the ball relentlessly up top while Motiejus Krivas and Koa Peat erase mistakes in the paint. The Wildcats prefer a faster pace than Utah State, they will push the tempo and let their talent advantage accumulate possession by possession. Arizona is a machine right now. Don’t overthink this one.

Alabama -1.5 over Texas Tech

The line movement here tells the story before the stats even do. This game opened yesterday with Texas Tech favored at -1.5 and quickly flipped last night to Alabama -1.5.

Without Toppin, Texas Tech loses their leading scorer and their best rebounder in one blow. The Red Raiders are now almost entirely dependent on perimeter shooting, ranking third nationally in three-point percentage at 39.7%. They shot 55% from deep in Round 1 making 11 of 20 and will need to sustain that in Round 2.

The Crimson Tide rank fourth in adjusted tempo and first in three-point attempt rate, launching from deep on 53.7% of their possessions. They protect the basketball at the tenth-best rate in the country and rank third nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Jaxon and I like Alabama to cover.

Iowa State -4.5 over Kentucky

Iowa State ranks fourth in the country in defensive turnover percentage, forcing opponents into mistakes on 22.3% of possessions. Kentucky ranks 64th in protecting the ball. That gap could be where this spread is won or lost.

The Cyclones just held Tennessee State to 74 points while scoring 108 themselves in the opening round. Their defense is relentless and physical and designed to make guards uncomfortable. Kentucky had their hands full with Santa Clara and but this will be a much tougher task.

Kentucky allowed 84 points to Santa Clara in the first round, which is not the defensive calling card of a team ready to slow down Iowa State's 7th-ranked three-point shooting. The Cyclones are 8-7 against Quad 1 opponents this season compared to Kentucky's 5-11 mark. Iowa State is the more complete team.

Bet smarter, not harder.

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