There's a moment every March when some broadcaster used to mention a star player's college major and GPA. "Marketing with a 3.6." "Pre-law." It felt wholesome. It felt collegiate.

It's gone.

What replaced it is NIL valuations, transfer portal histories, and projected draft slots. And honestly, for bettors, that's more useful information anyway. College basketball is basically a professional sport now, and the evidence is clear.

NIL spending across college basketball has surged to $932.5 million for the 2025-26 season, the transfer portal swallowed roughly 40% of all Division I players last spring, and the 2025 tournament produced the chalkiest outcome in modern history: all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, with only 13 underdog wins across the entire bracket, the fewest since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

The structural forces driving this are real and durable. The gap between elite programs and mid-majors has widened dramatically, average spreads between power and non-power conference opponents have ballooned from 16.3 points in 2021-22 to 22.9 points today. Less than 10% of players earning six figures in NIL compete outside Power Five programs. That talent consolidation shows up in March.

The mid-major Cinderella story that made this tournament famous? At least one ESPN analyst has argued that programs like the old Butler and Davidson runs simply don't have a chance anymore, and the data backs them up.

Here's what this means for your money.

Average tournament point spreads rose from 6.4 points in 2023 to 8.7 points in 2025, a 10-year high. The old heuristics of fading the one-seeds, loving the 12-5 upset, or finding the hot mid-major, all need to be repriced. The sport has changed and the bracket hasn't caught up.

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🏀 Friday Night NBA Spreads

Friday night has three games worth your money, and the injury situations are doing a lot of the analytical work for us.

Houston Rockets -6.5 (-120)

New Orleans has gone 7-3 over their last ten games, which is the kind of recent form that makes a six-point spread look negotiable. It isn't. The Pelicans are 9-24 on the road this season, their effective field goal percentage ranks 27th in the league, and they struggle at the rim against shot-blocking defenses. Houston ranks third in blocks per game at 5.8, one of Houston's most disruptive defensive traits.

Houston owns the best offensive rebounding rate in the league at 37.7%. New Orleans ranks 28th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Rockets are going to generate second-chance opportunities at a volume the Pelicans simply cannot absorb, and Houston is coming off an embarrassing 93-point performance against Denver where they shot 35.7% from the free-throw line.

Toronto Raptors -3.5 (-115)

Both teams are sitting at the seven seed in their respective conferences and both are fighting to avoid the play-in, but the efficiency profiles are not nearly as close as the standings imply. Phoenix is shooting 41.6% from the field over its last ten games and arrives without Grayson Allen, Dillon Brooks, and Mark Williams.

Toronto ranks seventh in defensive rating. The Raptors also lead the league in transition frequency at 18.4% of possessions and rank fourth in turnover percentage forced. Over their last 10 games, they lead the league in points off turnovers.

Phoenix needs to play a disciplined, half-court game to stay competitive, which is difficult enough against a defense this active but nearly impossible to execute without your full rotation. Toronto at home is a different team, and the metrics support a wider gap than the line suggests.

Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 (-118)

Golden State is missing Stephen Curry, Moses Moody, and Jimmy Butler, with Quinten Post and De'Anthony Melton both day-to-day. What remains is a Warriors team that still attempts the most threes in the league but no longer has the offensive gravity to make that volume sustainable. Without Curry, defenses don't have to respect the same floor spacing, which collapses the entire system.

Minnesota's transition offense ranks third in efficiency and third in points added per 100 possessions, and Golden State ranks 27th in transition frequency allowed. The Wolves also have Rudy Gobert anchoring rim protection against a team that will be forced to attack the paint when the outside shots stop falling. Anthony Edwards is averaging 29 points per game and gets a Warriors defense that ranks 26th in mid-range effective field goal percentage allowed.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 The Vikings didn’t just sign a new Quarterback. They sent a clear message to their own.

🏀 SGA just broke a crazy NBA record spanning multiple seasons. Probably not the last record that he breaks. 

🏒 Ottawa broke a rule, and was punished for it. Three years later, the league is changing their mind.

⚽️ The fallout from Wednesday night in Paris just got worse. Now the Blues are losing the tie, and a player.

🎾 Alcaraz is undefeated in 2026. The 23 year-old is showing no signs of slowing down.

🏀 Could Miami (OH) Miss the Tournament?

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

One of the great feel-good stories of the college basketball season might have a tragic ending.  Miami (OH), after enjoying an undefeated regular season despite not being picked to win their own conference, lost in the MAC Tournament to UMass.  

What it Means for the Redhawks

There is a clear and present danger Miami (OH) will not make the NCAA Tournament.  

Their problem is their schedule, coming in 269th out of 365 teams.  They never even played a Quad 1 opponent, which often gets cited for how good a team is against the best in the country.  In fact, the Redhawks had only two Quad 2 games. 

However, no team with an undefeated regular season has missed the Big Dance.

What it Means for Us

On Kalshi, you can bet on if Miami (OH) will make the Field of 64.  Be careful though, because they could be selected to play in the First Four, lose, and then it’s a “no”.  

Despite being above 50% as “yes”, I see value in them missing the tournament or losing in Dayton.  There is some precedent.  Indiana State in 2024 had a top 30 resume but was snubbed.  Utah State in 2004 won nearly 90% of their games and didn’t make it.  

There’s also value in the Redhawks losing the “play-in” game that may not even be favored in.  It’s a bet I would place now.

Several conference tournaments are still going on.  Jaxon’s AI tools and I have a few others bets we like for Friday: 

Michigan (-12.5) vs Ohio State

There are only two teams in America ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom: Duke and Michigan.

These longtime rivals are separated by more than 20 spots in the latest overall KenPom rankings.  But, more importantly, Michigan has been consistently excellent all season long, while Ohio State has been streaky.  Before winning their last four contests, the Buckeyes were 4-6 in their last ten.  They were all Quad 1 losses, but the inconsistency is a red flag.  

Michigan has a rest advantage and plays at one of the faster tempos in the country.  They should wear down the Buckeyes and cover a big number.

Saint Louis (-6.5) vs George Washington

Here’s another opportunity to back the rested team.  The George Washington Revolutionaries grinded out a win over Fordham Thursday, while the top-seeded Saint Louis Billikens are playing their first game of the A-10 Tournament.

Not only is SLU’s offense elite, they could set the A-10 record for most three-pointers made in a single season.  The perimeter assault should mean a resounding win for the Billikens.

Kentucky vs Florida U160.5

As I mentioned earlier this week, early games mean fewer points.  This one tips off around noon in Nashville.  

It’s also the third meeting between the Wildcats and Gators, which can also encourage better defensive play.  The second game was just Saturday, so these two are really familiar.  

Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon are elite rim protectors, and they’ve been as important as anyone helping Florida’s defense improve throughout the season.  This one should stay under 160 total points.  

Still not sure what to bet on?

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