It's December, playoff spots are being decided, and we're arguing about what constitutes a catch. John Harbaugh's description of the catch rule as "about as clear as mud right now" isn't just coach-speak frustration. This is one of NFL's most embarrassing ongoing failures.

The Week 14 Steelers-Ravens game perfectly illustrated the madness. Late in the fourth quarter, Isaiah Likely appeared to catch a go-ahead touchdown for Baltimore. He secured the ball, got two feet down, and extended it away from defender Joey Porter Jr.

Touchdown called on the field. But after review, the score was wiped away because Likely didn't get a "third foot down" before the ball was ripped out.

Never mind that the rulebook explicitly states a player can complete the catch process by performing "any act common to the game" like extending the ball or warding off an opponent. The officials zeroed in on counting steps and ignored everything else.

The real kicker? Earlier in the same game, the officials reversed an interception call, giving the Steelers a completion despite their player actively grappling for the ball while falling to the ground.

So Likely's play with full control and two steps isn't a catch, but a jump ball wrestled to the ground is? Harbaugh called on the league office for clarification immediately after the game but the response "didn't clear anything up," Harbaugh said. When the league's own experts can't explain their rulings to a head coach, the system is broken.

The NFL has tinkered with the catch rule for over a decade, usually after some playoff controversy forces their hand. They eliminated "surviving the ground," tried to clarify the "football move," and attempted to simplify everything. Instead, we've ended up with officials in New York abandoning the "clear and obvious" standard that's supposed to govern replay reversals.

The good news is the NFL Referees Association's collective bargaining agreement expires soon, and the league is reportedly planning significant officiating changes for 2026. The bad news is we have to suffer through at least two more seasons of watching critical games swing on subjective interpretations of a rule that nobody can explain.

🤖 Jaxon – Your Edge Against the Books

Tired of guessing? Just ask Jaxon.

Jaxon crunches millions of data points in seconds, finds the hidden value sportsbooks don’t want you to see, and delivers it straight to you.

🎯 Player Props → Discover the sharpest matchups before kickoff
💎 Plus EV Finder → Spot the bets where the math is on your side
📰 News & Injuries → Get the updates that actually move lines
🏈 Survivor Pool Optimization → Build the path that keeps you alive longest

Whether you’re chasing player props, hunting +EV, or want instant answers to questions like “How does Joe Burrow perform at Home against other AFC north opponents?”, Jaxon has you covered.

It’s simple. It’s powerful. And your first questions are free.

As the playoff window begins, we turned to Jaxon to help us gain an edge in Week 15. Here are a few player props to keep an eye on.

Ja'Marr Chase Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Ja'Marr Chase is averaging a ridiculous 127.6 receiving yards per game at home in 2025, hitting the over in all five contests. That's the kind of consistency you love to see, especially when the line sits at just 90.5 yards.

The matchup couldn't be much better. Baltimore ranks 25th in defending opposing wide receivers, and they generate pressure on just 4% of dropbacks (30th in the league). When Burrow has time to operate, he looks for his number one target early and often, and Chase's 139 targets lead the entire NFL while his 30.0% target share ranks second among all receivers.

Chase torched Baltimore for 110 yards in their first meeting this season and averaged an absurd 228.5 yards per game against them in 2024. That is not a typo. Burrow has been on fire since returning from injury, throwing for 545 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last two starts. Despite his lengthy absence this year, Cincinnati's offense still ranks 12th in DVOA and 3rd in passing touchdowns, largely thanks to Chase's efforts. 

I'm taking Chase over 90.5 yards at -114.

Bo Nix Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-118)

Bo Nix is averaging 37.0 passing attempts over his last five games and has hit the over on this 33.5 line in 80% of those contests. At home this season, he's averaged 37.67 attempts per game, and Denver as a team ranks 5th in the league in pass attempts at 36.23 per game. 

The Packers rank 5th in Total DVOA at 21.0% compared to Denver's 8th-ranked 13.3%, and their offense is elite, sitting 3rd in Offensive DVOA at 16.8% while the Broncos check in at a pedestrian 14th at just 1.1%. 

Denver's 10-game win streak has been built on razor-thin margins and their offense is a major liability. They rank 25th in yards per play at just 5.56, 29th in yards per pass attempt at 6.27, and dead last in the entire league in yards per reception at 10.26. The Packers defense ranks 1st in both yards per play allowed (5.19) and yards per pass attempt allowed (6.56), making it extremely difficult for Denver to sustain drives.

Green Bay is also slightly more vulnerable defending the pass than the run, ranking 21st in receptions allowed compared to 9th in rushing yards allowed. The path to moving the ball for Denver will be through the air.

J.J. McCarthy Over 0.5 Interceptions (-150)

J.J. McCarthy has been a turnover machine this season, averaging 1.43 interceptions per game across his seven appearances. His last start was his only start without a pick in his young career. 

McCarthy has a tough task this weekend as Dallas ranks 2nd in quarterback pressure rate at 32.89% and 1st in quarterback hits with 53 total. They've added Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline to bolster an already elite pass-rushing unit, and they generate pressure relentlessly. The critical mismatch here is that the Vikings rank 30th in sacks taken with 47 on the season, meaning their offensive line cannot protect McCarthy against even average pass rushes, let alone an elite one.

The Vikings offensive struggles go beyond just turnovers. They rank 29th in Offensive DVOA at -21.5%, 30th in total yards per game, and 29th in third-down conversion rate at just 32.43%. McCarthy is averaging only 156 passing yards per game and has shown consistent decision-making issues under pressure. The Cowboys may rank 31st in interception rate, but they don't need to be great when the opposing quarterback is gifting them away.

Advanced models give Dallas a 77.5% chance to win this game, and the game script should force McCarthy into obvious passing situations if the Cowboys offense builds a lead. More dropbacks under pressure equals more opportunities for mistakes, and McCarthy has shown all season that he will make them. 

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Road underdogs are set to cover the spread this weekend. Here are the Week 15 best bets. 

🐎 The Colts Quarterback situation is clearing up. Could Rivers’ return be coming soon?

🏀 The Mavericks' rookie is doing things that usually only generational talents do. His rookie start has been historic.

🌀 From the football field to the prison yard. The former coach is still awaiting charges. 

⚾️ The Braves solved their late-inning problems with a $45 million solution. Their bullpen suddenly looks dangerous.

Week 15’s Best TD Bets

by Tony Reyes

Let's cut through the noise and focus on where the real money gets made... finding touchdown scorers at plus-money odds that the market is severely undervaluing.

Dalton Kincaid: The Patriots' Achilles Heel Is Wide Open

Now let's shift our attention to Sunday's AFC East showdown, because there's another plus-money opportunity that's practically screaming at us.

Dalton Kincaid at +270 to score against the Patriots is one of those bets that makes you wonder if the sportsbooks are even paying attention.

Here's what you need to understand about this matchup. The Patriots' defense ranks 26th in the league against tight ends, and they've been bleeding touchdowns to the position all season long. They've already surrendered 5 receiving touchdowns to tight ends, and they're allowing the sixth-most receptions per game to the position.

This isn't a small-sample-size issue; it's a season-long vulnerability that opposing offenses have been exploiting week after week.

And Dalton Kincaid is EXACTLY the type of player built to take advantage of it.

Kincaid commands a massive 33.3% red zone target rate, which is the highest among all Bills pass-catchers. When he runs a route inside the 20-yard line, Josh Allen is looking for him first. That's not speculation, that's what the data tells us about how Buffalo operates when they need six points.

The blueprint is already written. In their Week 5 matchup against New England, Kincaid absolutely torched this defense for 108 receiving yards. He knows how to beat their coverage schemes, and Josh Allen knows where to find him when the stakes are highest.

Fresh off returning from injury, Kincaid immediately found the end zone against the Bengals in Week 14. He's healthy, he's in rhythm with his quarterback, and he's facing a defense that simply cannot cover the tight end position.

The Patriots are allowing a 22.51% target rate to tight ends overall, meaning opposing quarterbacks are actively hunting this matchup throughout the game. When you combine that with Kincaid's elite red zone usage and his proven success against this specific defense, the +270 price becomes absurd.

This is a high-stakes divisional game where Allen will lean on his most trusted weapons in scoring position.

The data, the matchup history, and the defensive vulnerability all point in the same direction. We're getting nearly 3-to-1 odds on a player who checks every single box for touchdown upside.

Kimani Vidal: The Wounded Quarterback's Best Friend

Now let's turn our attention to the AFC West rivalry game, because there's a touchdown opportunity hiding in plain sight that's paying out at absolutely ridiculous odds.

Kimani Vidal at +500 to score a touchdown against the Chiefs is the kind of number that makes you check twice to make sure you read it correctly.

Here's what most people are missing. Justin Herbert is playing through a fractured left hand, which completely transforms the Chargers' offensive identity. Last week, Herbert managed only 139 yards passing and threw an interception because his mechanics are completely compromised by the injury.

The Chargers aren't just going to be run-heavy in this game... they're going to be FORCED to pound the rock because they literally have no other choice. Their offensive line is a disaster, ranking 28th in sack rate allowed, so they need to protect their injured quarterback at all costs.

And when it comes to punching the ball in at the goal line, Kimani Vidal is the undisputed guy.

Vidal has seen 7 carries inside the 5-yard line this season, which leads the entire Chargers roster. He's logged 26 total red zone carries, ranking 24th among all running backs in the league. When this team gets close to the end zone and needs to finish drives on the ground, Vidal is getting the call.

He's already scored 3 rushing touchdowns this season, and the game script couldn't be more perfect for him to add another. Last week, despite Omarion Hampton returning from injury, Vidal still played 69% of the offensive snaps and the two backs split touches evenly at 15 apiece.

The Chiefs' run defense is tough, ranking 7th in rushing yards allowed per game. That's exactly why these odds are sitting at +500. But volume trumps matchup when a team has no alternative offensive strategy.

The Chargers will run relentlessly to keep Herbert upright and control the clock. Every time they get inside the 20-yard line, Vidal will be the primary option to finish the drive.

At +500, you're getting 5-to-1 odds on the running back who will handle the highest volume of goal-line carries in a game where his team has no choice but to lean on the ground game.

This is exactly the type of situational advantage that creates massive value in the touchdown market.

Why is TE Usage Increasing? A trend worth following

by Ed Egros

If there is one storyline that seems to keep popping up in football betting circles, it’s how deep throws have become increasingly rare compared with just a few years ago.  Take someone like Rams’ quarterback Matthew Stafford, who built his reputation as a gunslinger while with Detroit, but has since embraced a more conservative approach, prioritizing ball security over explosive plays—especially this season.  

If Stafford, despite having Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to throw to, is a fair representative of how other NFL quarterbacks are approaching the position, then there has to be ways to make money off of this trend.

How Much More Usage?

Throwing shorter passes is one way to decrease the likelihood of an interception, which means targeting those who are not sprinting down the field at the snap.  That leads us to tight ends.  

I had Jaxon pull the data on tight end usage in the passing game this season and identify which players are leading this trend.  

While it may not seem like a big shift going from an average target share of 5.59% last year to 5.84% this year, given just how many passes and games that have already happened in 2025, it’s more than enough to take notice.  

Which Tight Ends Lead the Way?

Chiefs veteran Travis Kelce has dominated the conversation of receiving tight ends over the last several seasons.  But now, there are several young standouts showing us the position will likely remain an important one for years to come: Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, New England’s Hunter Henry and Arizona’s Trey McBride: 

The Difference Maker

Brock Bowers leads this group in yards per reception with more than 13.5 this season.  He also  commands more targets than any other receiver in the Raiders' passing attack and at 23 years old, is the youngest in this trio.

The Efficient Veteran

Ten seasons in the NFL across three different teams, and Hunter Henry remains a force.  His 8.84 yards per target is one of the top marks among tight ends this season even though he’s part of an offense with “a lot of mouths to feed” like Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins.

The Foundation

Arizona wouldn't have any semblance of a passing game without Trey McBride.  He’s averaging nearly ten targets per contest with a target share approaching 25%!  Even without starting quarterback Kyler Murray, he remains the Cardinals’ focal point.  

Props

So given this trend and these elite players, which tight ends should we back this weekend? Jaxon's NFL Sheet makes the research straightforward, starting with McBride:

McBride won’t have Murray throwing to him this Sunday (or unfortunately any game this season for that matter).  He’s also going up against one of the better defenses in football in Houston.  But, Jaxon still likes for McBride to go over 6.5 receptions, and given just how often he’s targeted, I couldn’t agree more.

Another tight end Jaxon is confident in backing is Buffalo’s Dawson Knox.  

It’s not a massive payout, but going over 1.5 receptions should be a safe way to go.  If last week is any indication, he should play a bigger role among Bills tight ends going forward.  It also makes for a fun story given his wife is due to have a baby very soon.

Key Takeaway

As we approach the end of the regular season, avoiding costly mistakes and leaning on the most reliable players will define who thrives in December. Tight ends will likely be integral to many game plans down the stretch.

Join the conversation!

Let us know if you’re tailing or who you think is due to find the endzone this weekend! Tag us on X @PineSports_AI or join the Discord server so you don’t miss out!