Neither the Brewers nor the Rays has ever won a World Series. Starting tonight at American Family Field, two small-market clubs built on pitching, defense and stubborn at-bats find out which one gets there first.

On paper, Milwaukee is the sharper version of the same blueprint. The Brewers scored 96 more runs, led the majors in on-base percentage (.341) and struck hitters out at a higher rate: 9.61 per nine innings to Tampa’s 8.25. The Rays counter with control, since no staff in baseball walked fewer batters. They also have slightly more power with 169 home runs, compared to Milwaukee’s 154 homers which ranked 29th.

The real intrigue in Game 1 is on the mound. Jacob Misiorowski looked unhittable all summer, with a 1.80 ERA and a majors-best 252 strikeouts. October has been different. His fastball has lost some of its ride, so hitters who used to miss are now fouling pitches off. His whiff rate has dropped from about 40% to 16%, and he hasn’t finished five innings in either playoff start. Milwaukee spent his 11-day break working on his mechanics. Whether or not they fixed anything is the biggest question of the night.

Tampa’s Kevin Cash is giving Drew Rasmussen an extra day of rest and handing the ball to 36-year-old Nick Martinez. Martinez is an All-Star who has been far better on the road (2.38 ERA) than at home. The catch is that he rarely misses bats, and tonight he faces the NL’s most patient lineup.

Game 1 Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers ML and Under 6.5

🏈 Anytime TD Cheat Sheet  

Pine's Anytime TD Sheet gives you everything you need to predict this weekend’s touchdown scorers:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's TD projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has found the end zone over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

🏈 Close Games, Big Totals: Sunday’s Best Props

Three games stand out as likely to stay close and high-scoring: Packers at Lions, Bengals at Ravens and 49ers at Falcons. Each total sits at 48.5 or higher, every team is projected for at least 23 points, and no spread is bigger than a field goal.

🔥 Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts

Baltimore doesn’t get cute with Henry. He’s topped this number in 60% of his last five, 10 and 15 games, averaging between 20.6 and 21.5 carries over those stretches.

Cincinnati gives up 5.04 yards per carry, 30th in the league, and ranks near the bottom in missed tackles. Then there’s the quarterback question for the Ravens. Reports suggest Tyler Huntley may start in place of Lamar Jackson again. Huntley has been steady in relief, but a backup under center usually means a run-heavy plan, and the Ravens already rank third in carries per game. Expect Henry to carry the load.

🔥 Kyle Pitts Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

Pitts’ season average of 28.2 yards looks like a warning sign, but the bigger sample tells a better story. He’s averaged 46.6 yards over his last 10, clearing this line 60% of the time. He’s been better at home too, going over in two of three games at 39 yards per outing.

San Francisco is tough almost everywhere, but it does allow plenty of catches, ranking 26th in receptions given up per game. With Atlanta’s receiver room thin, the middle of the field should belong to Pitts.

Fade Bijan Robinson Anytime TD. His price implies about a 67% chance he scores. The 49ers have allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season and only 3.61 yards per carry. The price isn’t worth the risk this week.

🔥 Jameson Williams Over 3.5 Receptions

Williams has gone over this number in 70% of his last 10 games and 73% of his last 15, averaging close to 4.5 catches. Green Bay’s pass defense is stingy on a per-play basis, but it still faces about 35 throws per game. Williams caught 5.5 passes per game in two meetings with the Packers last season and has cleared this line in both home games this year. It’s a modest number for a receiver with a reliable role.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Medical issues have been a theme in sports this week. A hall of fame running back just opened up about his current battle.

🤕 Verstappen isn’t joking around anymore. Track conditions are leading to new damages for drivers.

🏀 Boos turned to cheers in Philly last night. LeBron set a new personal best in his 24-year career.

⚽️ Carrick had a rough night in Italy. The last time a manager responded this way, they were fired by morning.

🏈 Sunday Night Fade: Walker’s Homecoming Hits a Wall

Kansas City comes in at 5-0, but there’s an asterisk. Nobody in the league has played an easier schedule. Seattle is just 3-3, but it has faced a much tougher slate and has the NFL’s second-best defense by DVOA. That’s why the Seahawks are 2.5-point home favorites.

Both offenses want to run, and both defenses stop the run, ranking top five in yards per carry allowed. That keeps the clock moving and limits possessions. Seattle’s offense ranks 24th by DVOA, and Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions to go with seven touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league in receiving yards, but he’s basically the whole passing game. Kansas City allows just 16.6 points per game, second-fewest in the NFL.

A slow, physical game with a few turnovers points to a low scoring game.

➡️ Kenneth Walker III Under 84.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Walker has been the best back in football since leaving Seattle. He leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards and has cleared this number in four of his last five games. The public will be all over him.

But Seattle hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 straight games, the longest active streak in the league, and it gives up just 3.51 yards per carry. Christian McCaffrey managed only 66 yards against this group. Seattle’s defenders also spent years practicing against Walker, so they know his habits better than anyone.

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