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- 🏀 Tanking is Over, NBA Playoffs Begin
🏀 Tanking is Over, NBA Playoffs Begin
Two play-in spreads to watch plus the last NHL playoff spots up for grabs
The NBA has a tanking problem and Friday night was the masterpiece.
Utah beat Memphis 147-101 on Friday night, and calling it a basketball game feels generous. The two teams combined were missing over 20 players. There were more starters on 10-day contracts than multi-year deals. What followed was less a professional sporting contest and more an extended audition for players most fans have never heard of, set against the backdrop of two teams competing to lose as many games as possible.
Jahmai Mashack, one of only six players to take the court for Memphis, finished with 13 points, 15 rebounds, 14 assists, and 10 turnovers. The triple-double counts. The 10 turnovers makes it the first quadruple-double since Giannis posted a similar curiosity in 2023.
On the Utah side, John Konchar and Bez Mbeng both recorded triple-doubles off the bench, a first duo in league history to do so coming off the bench. Oscar Tshiebwe grabbed 22 rebounds and Utah led by 55 at one point. Memphis shot just 21% from three.
This game will be remembered as the defining image of the 2026 tanking cycle, and the NBA knows it has a problem.
Commissioner Adam Silver has identified at least eight teams engaged in what he has called a tanking epidemic this season, and the league's Board of Governors is expected to vote on structural reforms in late May. The proposals under consideration range from expanding the lottery to 22 teams and flattening the odds to introducing a two-year record average that would prevent any single catastrophic season from delivering a top pick. Another proposal would guarantee the five worst teams equal odds at the top selection while ensuring none of them falls below tenth.
Whether any of it works depends on one uncomfortable truth the league has not yet fully confronted. As long as elite generational talent enters exclusively through the top of the draft, smart front offices will find ways to position themselves there. The proposals address the symptom. The incentive structure is still very much present.
Better basketball is coming, at least in theory. Friday night in Utah was not it.
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🏀 NBA Play-In: Tuesday’s Spread Picks
The Play-In tournament tips off Tuesday night, and both games have clear analytical edges worth backing. Win-or-go-home basketball is the best regular-season adjacent product the NBA offers, and this year's field has some great matchups.
Charlotte Hornets -5.5 (-110)
I don’t know why it feels wrong even saying this, but Charlotte has been one of the best teams in basketball since January, and the advanced metrics back it up. Their net rating of +5.1 over the last stretch of the season trumps Miami's +1.6, and their offense ranks 4th in the league during that span. Coach Charles Lee has built a young roster that plays deliberately, dominates the glass, and launches threes at the second-highest rate in the league while converting them at 37.8% (3rd).
Miami's concern heading into this game is defensive. The Heat have improved their offensive efficiency significantly over the last 25 games, but their defensive rating has deteriorated by nearly five points per 100 possessions in that same window. Playing Charlotte, with the league's most active three-point threats LaMelo Ball and Kon Knueppel, is a problem.
Charlotte is 50-32 against the spread this season, the best mark in the league, and 14-7 as home favorites. Take them to cover or at least to advance.
Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-110)
Portland is a chaotic, high-variance team that has covered six of their last seven games. They rank last in the league in turnover percentage and third in three-point attempts while converting at just 34.3%, which ranks 28th.
Meanwhile, Phoenix ranks 2nd in the NBA in three-point defense. That specific mismatch is the game in a sentence. The Suns closed their season with a 32-point win over Oklahoma City and looked like a team hitting its stride at exactly the right moment.
Portland's best path to winning involves dominating the offensive glass, where they rank 4th in the league, and Phoenix does allow offensive rebounds at an above-average rate. Otherwise, if Phoenix can make their shots and limit turnovers, the Blazers are going to struggle to keep pace.
🌲 The Pine Line
⚾️ Do you like quick hits at the ballpark with NRFI plays? Jaxon gives you insights and projections for every game.
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🤕 Bednar’s update was better than feared. We’ll see if he starts wearing a helmet on the bench when he returns.
🏒 Betting on the Final NHL Playoff Spots
by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports
If you’re just now paying attention to the NHL playoff picture, what’s truly insane is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are out while the Buffalo Sabres clinched their first playoff berth in 14 years, previously tied for the longest active drought in North American sports. Not seeing Toronto past Game 82 will also be disorienting.
Looking Ahead
With four days left in the regular season, there are still a few playoff spots up for grabs in the NHL. Better still, there are a lot of playoff series yet to be set, the first being the Dallas Stars hosting the Minnesota Wild.
Where to Focus
Let’s look at the last spot remaining in the Western Conference, as the L.A. Kings and Nashville Predators are the ones most squarely in contention. Los Angeles has a one-point lead and an extra game to play, hence a much larger probability for making the playoffs once again.
Best Bets
Both the Kings and Predators are in action Monday night, so let’s check in with Jaxon to add to our regular-season bankroll:
Sharks at Predators O6.5 Goals (+100)
One of the reasons why San Jose likely won’t make the playoffs is their penalty kill. They have allowed almost as many goals as any other unit in the NHL. You trust the forwards for Nashville to make the most of their opportunities.
At the same time, San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini continues to be a points machine at all strengths.
Where he’s been particularly dangerous is low-danger goals, meaning shots far from the net and/or from tough angles are still in Celebrini’s wheelhouse. By the way, betting on him to score a goal at +135, that's a number worth playing.
Given how high-scoring these meetings tend to be, there are enough paths for this game to reach seven goals.
Filip Forsberg O0.5 Goals (+130)
It’s not just that the Sharks have struggled on the penalty kill, they have had trouble containing wingers at all strengths.
Filip Forsberg has averaged 1.4 goals over his last five meetings with the Sharks. For the season, he’s been generating more high-danger scoring chances than much of the rest of the league. There’s little reason he can’t score again here.
Kraken +1.5 vs Kings (-175)
If you go by goal differential, the Kings are only marginally the better hockey team. What matters a great deal more is defense.
Los Angeles continues to be defensive juggernauts, allowing fewer even-strength high-danger shots against than any other team.
At the same time, Seattle may have found a solution to its goaltending situation in Nikke Kokko. This game has the makings of a low-scoring affair where either LA wins by a goal or Seattle plays spoiler. Either way, take Seattle on the puck line.
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