The MVP race might be decided by the injury report this year. It’s become as much about staying healthy as playing well, and the 65-game eligibility rule is the reason why. To qualify for MVP consideration, players need to appear in at least 65 games this season, and right now, some of the most statistically dominant players in the league are facing disqualification.

Nikola Jokic is the most dramatic case. He is arguably having the best season of his career: averaging a triple-double with 28.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game. The problem is he's already missed 16 games, which means he has a margin of exactly one more before he's automatically ruled out of contention. With 28 games remaining, the writing is on the walls.

Victor Wembanyama isn't in much better shape, having missed 14 games and carrying just three games of cushion remaining. Luka Doncic has missed 12 and is considered high risk. The eligibility filter has essentially narrowed a wide-open race down to two realistic frontrunners.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the heavy favorite, and it's easy to see why. He's averaging 31.8 points per game on historic efficiency, posting a 67% true shooting percentage while leading Oklahoma City to a 44-14 record and the best net rating in the entire league. A recent abdominal strain cost him five games heading into the All-Star break, but he's only missed seven total, leaving him comfortable runway to the finish line. As the reigning MVP and the driving force behind a team that could be headed for a championship repeat, his case is the most complete package available.

The dark horse worth monitoring is Cade Cunningham. He's missed just four games all season and is the engine behind Detroit's remarkable turnaround, the Pistons currently holding the best record in the NBA at 42-13. Cunningham is averaging 9.8 assists per game while adding 25.5 points and 5.8 rebounds, and his plus-minus of +9.1 reflects just how much the Pistons' success runs through him.

Cunningham sits +600 to +700 depending on the book, which looks increasingly interesting if Jokic (+210) misses another game and SGA (-145) has any further injury concerns.

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🏀 Monday Night in the NBA

Only three game tonight as we find our post-ASG and post-Olympic routine. The NHL returns Wednesday, and March Madness is around the corner, but for now let’s dig into today’s NBA matchups.

Victor Wembanyama Over 10.5 Rebounds (-118)

This matchup has NBA Finals preview written all over it. Both San Antonio and Detroit have hit 40 wins before 20 losses, which is the threshold Phil Jackson famously used to identify legitimate title contenders. The Spurs are riding an eight-game winning streak, the Pistons own the best record in the league and have won five straight, and both teams rank in the top three in defensive rating league-wide.

Wembanyama has been a rebounding force, averaging 11.6 boards over his last five games and essentially matching that over his last ten. He's cleared this 10.5 line in four of his last five appearances, including a 15-rebound outing against Sacramento.

Detroit ranks fourth in defense against big men, but obviously Wembanyama isn't a conventional big. His combination of length, positioning, and natural instinct puts him in the 96th percentile league-wide for rebounds per game, and that kind of production is matchup proof.

Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 (-110)

Sacramento has now lost 16 consecutive games, a franchise record, and they currently hold the worst record in the NBA. Their defense is allowing 121.1 points per game, ranking 28th in the league, and they have to finish the season without Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and De’Andre Hunter.

Memphis is far from healthy too. Ja Morant has missed 13 straight games, and the list of absences includes Santi Aldama, Zach Edey, and several others. But the Grizzlies' defensive infrastructure is genuinely superior, ranking 18th in defensive rating compared to Sacramento's 29th.

GG Jackson and Jaylen Wells have both stepped into expanded roles and shown they can produce. Memphis ranks sixth in assists per game, meaning the ball movement hasn't completely broken down despite the roster turnover. Against a Kings team this depleted and this far into a losing skid, Grizzlies by 4.5 somehow seems like the best option.

Alperen Sengun Over 18.5 Points (-113)

Utah is without Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler, and Jusuf Nurkic. That's their leading scorer, their starting point guard, their best defender, and their top two interior presences, all gone. What remains is a Jazz team allowing a league-high 125.9 points per game.

Sengun is averaging 20.4 points per game this season with a usage rate in the 97th percentile among big men. He's going up against a frontcourt that allows opposing bigs to convert at will near the basket, ranking 29th in rim field goal percentage allowed. Houston also leads the league in offensive rebound percentage, which translates directly into extra possessions and putback opportunities for their center.

Sengun only needs to keep pace with his season average to clear 18.5, and the matchup is about as favorable as it gets.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏒 Canada’s coach isn’t happy. The man with McDavid, MacKinnon, and Makar for 3-on-3 is upset.

⛳️ Four-under on Sunday wasn’t enough to overhaul the leaderboard. A new PGA winner held his nerve. 

🏀 Traditions are changing, and younger players are reaping the benefits. Rookie hazing has evolved into Chick-fil-A runs.

🎾 Venus is back in the game. The seven-time Grand Slam champ returns to competition today.

⚾️ The Dodgers want Ohtani to stay off the mound. That doesn’t mean he is going to listen.

🏀 Three Weeks Until Selection Sunday

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

In less than three weeks, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will be revealed in all its glory.  Now that football and the Olympics are over, perhaps your bandwidth can gently include brackets, Cinderellas and obscure mascots from mid-major programs.

This Season’s Trends

Teams are attempting more threes than ever and are making more of them.  This season, the average number of attempts by a team per game is 23.4, and the number of makes is 8.0.  It doesn’t mean players are sinking them at a higher rate, they’re just likelier to hoist.

It’s also worth noting teams are protecting the basketball better than ever, averaging only 11.7 turnovers per game, the fewest since the statistic began being tracked in 1992-93.  

What These Trends Mean

Offenses may be more volatile than ever.  If teams are making these triples, they are capable of obliterating a spread or making a ferocious comeback. 

For bettors, these facts mean more opportunities to live bet teams that are trailing, to back an underdog when a favorite has a cold shooting night, and to consider moneyline prices instead of just taking the points.

It’s also worth pinpointing teams that give up a lot of open looks.  For instance, Nebraska should have a great seed in the dance, but they allow a high three-point shooting rate. That’s the type of recipe that could get a team knocked out of the tournament early.

Defending the Two

If you look at the best teams right now: Michigan, Arizona, Florida and others, have allowed some of the lowest two-point shooting percentages in the country.  Forcing bad looks and limiting transition layups is how the best teams win.  

So, let’s use all of this information and Jaxon’s AI tools to make some money off of Monday’s college basketball slate:

Houston (-1.5) vs Kansas (-115)

It may seem strange to back the road team at Fogg Fieldhouse after the Jayhawks just lost badly at home, but given Houston’s scrappy, blitzing defense, there’s a level of offensive consistency required to beat the Cougars, and a 53.3% effective field goal rate that ranks 92nd in the country is not enough.  

Houston’s dynamic duo of guards in Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp are each averaging roughly 16.5 points per game.  Sharp struggled in his last outing, going 2-11 from the floor.  But these recent struggles are not indicative of anything, so it’s better to expect them to have their usual stellar contributions.

Don’t fear an inspired Jayhawks team, back the Cougars.

North Carolina ML vs Louisville (+146)

One way to overcome a cold shooting night is with depth, and the Tar Heels have that in droves.  UNC has three players averaging double-figures: Caleb Wilson, Henri Veesaar and Seth Trimble.  

Granted, this is not an elite offense in terms of efficiency, but the Tar Heels defend the two-point area better than the Cardinals and do a stronger job of preventing open threes. 

Especially at home, UNC’s depth and defense should translate to a win.

Still not sure what to bet on?

Use the Parlay Generator for instant picks or discover player props on the consistency sheets! Pine Sports has the tools to give you an edge when it matters most.