The uncomfortable detail in Kansas City's 6-11 season last year is that they were 6-8 with Patrick Mahomes on the field. This was not a healthy contender undone by an injury. It was a mediocre team that then lost its quarterback.

The offense finished 21st in scoring at 21.29 points per game, 18th in yards per play, and 23rd in completion percentage. That is a three year trend, with scoring ranks of ninth, 16th, and 20th under Matt Nagy. The defense was 16th in DVOA, 26th in sacks with 33, and 27th in completion percentage allowed at 66.8%.

Then the secondary was dismantled. Trent McDuffie was traded to the Rams, who promptly made him the highest paid corner in league history. Jaylen Watson followed him there. Bryan Cook and Leo Chenal also left. Replacing them are L'Jarius Sneed, sixth overall pick Mansoor Delane, and unproven depth. This unit is far likelier to slide than improve.

Kenneth Walker III is a great addition at $14.35 million per year for a franchise without a 1,000 yard rusher since 2017, and Eric Bieniemy returning as coordinator should help. But Travis Kelce is 37 coming off 851 yards, Rashee Rice carries off field risk, and Xavier Worthy has 1,170 receiving yards across two seasons with a 20.6% catch rate on deep targets. Kansas City has started 15 different receivers in three years.

Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL on December 14. Week 1 arrives 274 days later. The Chiefs went 1-5 in the division and now face the toughest slate in it at a .536 opponent win percentage, including road trips to Buffalo, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Denver.

Under 10.5 total wins for the Chiefs this season.

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⚾️ High-scoring Matchups Across the League

Three games today check every box that matters for totals: a park that inflates scoring, a starter with a documented history against the lineup in front of him, and a bullpen that cannot be trusted to clean anything up.

Dodgers at Rockies Over 11.5 Runs

The clearest spot on the slate. Coors is the top hitting environment in baseball with a 119 runs factor, meaning scoring runs 28% above league average before anyone throws a pitch. Colorado's staff makes that worse, ranking 29th in ERA at 5.51, 29th in runs allowed with 720, 30th in WHIP at 1.52, and 28th in HR/9 at 1.43.

Kyle Freeland draws the assignment and this specific Dodgers lineup has hit .303 with 14 home runs against him over 274 career plate appearances. Shohei Ohtani is nine for 16 with three homers, Mookie Betts has three long balls in 50 trips, and Andy Pages is six for 13 with two.

Roki Sasaki has been fine but faces a Colorado offense that ranks seventh in baseball with 601 runs. Behind both starters sit two leaky pens, and the Dodgers group has been bottom ten in ERA since July after losing Edwin Díaz to the injured list following three blown saves in four chances.

Cardinals at Reds Over 8.5 Runs

Great American carries a 115 home run factor and a 104 mark for runs. Cincinnati's staff ranks 24th in ERA at 4.50, 27th in WHIP at 1.40, and 22nd in runs allowed with 595, and reports indicate both the rotation and bullpen are stretched thin entering this series. Matthew Liberatore has already surrendered homers to this lineup in limited work, with Matt McLain hitting .400 with one against him.

Marlins at Phillies Over 8.5 Runs

Citizens Bank posts a 114 home run factor and 104 for runs, and Philadelphia has battered Sandy Alcantara over 356 career plate appearances, hitting .299 with seven homers.

Trea Turner sits at .362, Alec Bohm .378, Bryce Harper .327 with three long balls. Aaron Nola has not been safe either, allowing a .286 mark to Miami across 51 trips.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🥊 Joint practice between Cowboys and Saints got out of control. At least the WWE has some new scouting reports to review.

🔥 Biggest shutout in MLB history last night. You could mistake it for a football score if you’re not careful.

🏎️ Not often we see an injury substitution in Formula 1. The Japanese driver is making his return to the track.

🎾 Kyrgios won’t be returning serves anytime soon. Seems he has other interests taking priority over tennis.

🔥 Get in on the Action with a Three-leg Hit Parlay

Three hit props today, each pairing a high contact bat with a pitcher who allows plenty of them. Together they price around +200 for the parlay.

👉️ Gabriel Moreno Over 0.5 Hits

Moreno is hitting .307, tenth in the majors, and his .297 expected average sits in the same spot, so this is real contact rather than luck. Payton Tolle has been shredded by Arizona's current roster, allowing a .500 career average with a 1.200 slugging mark and .708 wOBA. Fenway ranks eighth overall at a 102 factor with hits boosted to 104.

Moreno has reached in each of his last ten games, averaging 1.5 hits over that stretch, and his road rate sits at 76% against a 70% season figure. With Ketel Marte out and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on the 10-day list, his spot in the order carries more weight than usual.

👉️ Alec Burleson Over 0.5 Hits

Burleson hits .289 on the year, but the .302 expected average ranking fourth in baseball is the number that matters. His 138 hits rank sixth. He strikes out just 16.4% of the time, putting him in the 81st percentile for contact, which is the profile you want against a rookie.

Chase Burns has almost no history against this St. Louis lineup. Great American ranks sixth overall at 102 with a 115 home run factor. Burleson has gone over in nine of his last ten while averaging 1.4, and his road clip sits at 75 percent.

👉️ Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Hits

The hottest of the three. Bryson has recorded a hit in each of his last ten games and clears this at a 76.27% rate at home across 59 games. His 16.7% strikeout rate lands in the 88th percentile with an 83.2% contact rate.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed a .299 average and .339 wOBA to this Phillies roster with only a 17.4% strikeout rate. Citizens Bank grades seventh at 102 overall. Stott is 8-39 against Alcantara personally, just above .200, which is the one caution.

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