The Los Angeles Dodgers won back-to-back World Series titles in 2024 and 2025, and they did it with a luxury tax payroll of $417 million, shattering every league record ever set. When you add the $169 million tax bill that came with it, the Dodgers spent nearly $600 million on baseball last year. The taxes alone exceed the total payroll of twelve MLB franchises.

The payroll gap across the league has never been wider. The ratio between the top five and bottom five average payrolls was almost 5 to 1 last season, nearly double what it was just seven years ago. The Marlins spent just $87 million while the Dodgers spent almost five times that and still owed more in penalties on top of it.

Teams are fed up. Unless something changes, a lockout is coming after this season. The current collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, 2026, and the MLBPA's own interim executive director said flatly that a lockout is all but guaranteed. The union is already building a war chest by withholding licensing revenue and owners have stacked a $2 billion reserve fund. The central issue is a salary cap, and neither side has been able to find much middle ground. The last time owners pushed for a cap, in 1994, the World Series was canceled and 232 games were lost.

Now, does spending actually win championships? Mostly, but not always. About 71% of World Series winners since 1995 ranked in the top ten in payroll. The Dodgers themselves spent at the top of the league for seven straight years between 2013 and 2019 without winning a title.

The current system has also produced more parity since 2000 than any of the salary-capped leagues. There have been 16 different MLB champions since 2000, compared to 11 for NBA and 13 for both NFL and NHL. Money buys consistency and depth. It does not guarantee October baseball.

Which brings us to the futures worth considering right now.

The Dodgers at +255 to repeat are the obvious play. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Edwin Diaz, and Kyle Tucker joining an already loaded roster makes them the deepest team in baseball by a considerable margin.

The more enticing play to me is the Seattle Mariners at +1200. Bryan Woo has posted back-to-back sub-3.00 ERA seasons, the whole rotation is elite, and the offense gets a boost with the addition of Brendan Donovan. Seattle is the best value on the board.

Enjoy baseball a little more this summer. No one knows when it will return after the next champion is crowned.

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⚾️ Opening Night SGP: Two Legs Worth Building Around

Opening Night baseball is must-watch television, and the Dodgers hosting the Giants is the perfect headliner. Max Fried against Logan Webb is a genuine ace duel, and buried inside that matchup are two legs worth combining into a same-game parlay.

Based on last season’s numbers, and the lineup matchups tonight, Webb is the pitcher more likely to get hit, and Fried is the pitcher more likely to rack up strikeouts.

The Backdrop: Why Webb Gets Hit

Webb is a ground ball specialist who posted a 53.2% ground ball rate in 2025. Ground ball pitchers often live and die by their infield defense and tend to surrender a steady stream of singles when things go wrong. Webb's BABIP sat at .346 last season, which tells that story clearly.

The more pressing issue is his splits against left-handed hitters. Webb posted a .286 batting average against lefties in 2025, surrendering 114 hits. His sinker and slider, his two primary weapons, were punished at a .294 and .281 clip respectively by left-handed bats. The Yankees built their roster with premium left-handed hitters, meaning this lineup is essentially constructed to attack Webb's biggest vulnerability.

Leg One: Max Fried Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Fried finished 2025 with a 2.86 ERA and 19 wins. He works with six pitches, four of which generated batting averages below .220 against last season. His curveball sat at .198, his four-seamer at .206, his changeup at .207, and his slider at .218. Mixing four elite weapons across different speeds and planes just makes him genuinely difficult to barrel.

Over his last 34 starts, Fried averaged 18.06 outs per game, meaning he consistently pitches deep into games and gives the strikeout total plenty of runway. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 13 appearances.

The matchup seals it. San Francisco batted just .214 against left-handed pitching in 2025, the lowest mark in baseball.

Leg Two: Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 Hits

McMahon didn’t have the team-altering contributions he would have hoped for in his 54 games in NYC last year. He finished with a lower batting average (.208) than he ever had in a Rockies jersey.

McMahon hit the over against San Francisco in five of seven games in 2025, averaging 2.29 hits, runs, and RBIs combined per game against them. One hit against a pitcher who surrendered 114 hits to lefties last season is a low bar for a hitter with this track record against them.

Two legs with great value at +182 on DraftKings.

🌲 The Pine Line

🤕 The Players’ union is done staying quiet about this one. The league won’t be awarding the best players this year.

⚾️ Have you seen the terms of the deal in Chicago? Half of a good season is worth $114 million and six years.

⚽️ Sixteen teams are fighting for the final four spots. This is the last chance to qualify for this summer’s World Cup.

🏀 A first-round loss ended an era in Chapel Hill. Sounds like his plan for change didn’t impress either.

⛳️ Scheffler hasn’t been at his best this season. Bad play isn’t his reason for withdrawing from Houston.

🏀 Should We Expect More Chalk in the Sweet 16?

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

We won’t have another year when all four one-seeds comprise the Final Four.  But, this year’s NCAA Tournament sure feels chalky.

Recapping the First Two Rounds

Friday’s first-round action saw all 16 favorites win for the first time since 1992.  The lowest seed to win a first-round game was 12-seed High Point.  We also saw only one double-digit seed making it to the Sweet 16: Texas.  

Also, other than UConn from the Big East, only the four major conferences are still represented.  That mark includes six schools from the Big Ten.  Even though the conference hasn’t won a National Championship since 2000, this may be as good a chance as any in years to end the drought.

Should We Expect Favorites to Keep Winning?

If history is any indication…probably.  

For example, 2007 is another year when the tournament saw few upsets.  That Final Four consisted of a pair of one-seeds taking down a pair of two-seeds en route to the defending National Champion keeping its crown in Florida.  

Of the eight games this upcoming round, only two have spreads of fewer than three points: Michigan St./UConn and Iowa/Nebraska.  The market certainty expects the favorites to keep playing.

But, just because the transfer portal and NIL deals exist doesn’t mean we should automatically back the favorites.  Matchups matter.  

Here’s what Jaxon’s AI tools and I recommend for the Sweet 16:

Michigan -9.5 vs Alabama (-115)

Do not succumb to recency bias.

Just because Alabama obliterated a good Texas Tech team Sunday night does not mean they have “figured it out” and will steamroll everyone going forward.  

Michigan is balanced.  They boast the sixth-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating and the second-highest defensive mark.  Bama can shoot well, but defensively they come in 60th in America.  

But it’s not just mediocre defense helping the Wolverines.  Michigan can score in a variety of ways, having earned the second-highest two-point shooting rate in America (61.5%) and top 40 three-point shooting group (36.6%).  

It’s a large spread, but for two high-scoring teams, it’s achievable for possibly the best team in America.

UConn Moneyline vs Michigan St. (-117)

A lot of teams that play with a slower tempo are still in this tournament: Houston, Iowa, Purdue and UConn.  It is not a guarantee for success, but it can mean opponents have to adjust to get used to that style.  

The Huskies have been incredibly effective imposing their will in games ever since Dan Hurley took over.  This season is no different, coming in 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Especially as UConn guard Silas Demary Jr. continues to work himself back into the fold after an injury, with a season stat line of 11 points and six assists per game, the Huskies are in a great position to advance to another Elite 8.

Houston vs Illinois U141.5 (-120)

Given how well Illinois’ offense has been, betting an under seems like a dangerous proposition.

However, it’s Houston’s blitzing defense and it has had a lot of success in March.  Elite defenses like Iowa and UConn have shown Illinois is containable.  

This game will be played in Houston, so they should be able to execute their gameplan, which means a suffocating defense and fewer possessions.

Back the under and trust Kelvin Sampson's system to keep this one in the 60s.

Play ball!

Every edge counts this season. Ask Jaxon about vulnerable starting pitchers, home-run heavy ballpark conditions, and player prop angles. Then head over to the MLB sheets to view additional stats and shop for the best odds.