Whether or not it’s a surprise is up for debate, but the preseason Super Bowl favorite LA Rams suffered a season-opening loss that put a damper on their season expectations. They aren’t the only fans who could be in for a surprise this weekend.

The Carolina Panthers host the Bears this weekend, and they may not be as big of an underdog as people think. They added Jaelan Phillips off the edge, paired him with a playmaking Devin Lloyd, and already had one of the better secondaries in football with Mike Jackson, who led the league in pass breakups last season. That defense finished top five in third down conversion rate allowed (47.6%) and interception rate.

The real story here is Bryce Young. His raw numbers last year weren't flashy, but he's facing a Chicago defense that allowed the third worst touchdown rate through the air and ranked bottom five in yards allowed (386.76). If there's a defense for Young to jumpstart his season against, this is it, assuming he gets enough time in the pocket.

Carolina's clearest path is on the ground. Chuba Hubbard returns as a dual threat back but without the same competition for snaps as last season, and Chicago's run defense was one of the worst in the league last season, allowing five yards per carry. Lean on that, control the clock, and keep Caleb Williams off the field.

Chicago is the better team on paper, with a more explosive offense and a quarterback trending up in year two. But their secondary is banged up, missing multiple starters, and their overall defense ranks outside the top twenty in several key categories. If Carolina protects Young just enough and wins the turnover battle, don’t be surprised if they’re celebrating at the end.

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🏈 NFL Player Prop Edge for Week 1

This weekend's player prop board is built around one theme: offenses with real volume advantages facing defenses that can't slow them down.

🔥 Chase Brown Over 88.5 Rush+Receiving Yards

Cincinnati led the NFL in total plays last season and ranked top five in yards per play, and with Chase and Higgins both healthy, Burrow has his full arsenal to start the year. Brown has been living well above this number, clearing it in 9 of his last 10 games and averaging over 100 combined yards in that stretch to finish last season. At home specifically, he's hit this total nearly 78% of the time.

Tampa Bay is breaking in a new offensive coordinator and Cincinnati's defense, even with offseason additions, remains a question mark, setting up a game where the Bengals may need to keep scoring. Brown is the guy who closes games out on the ground while mopping up checkdowns, which makes the combined yards market the smart way to bet him.

🔥 Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 Receptions

Buffalo brings a balanced, high volume offense into a tough spot against Houston, a defense that has limited Josh Allen to under 200 passing yards in each of their last two meetings. That kind of defensive pressure often means more short, high percentage throws, and Shakir is the earner in that role.

Khalil Shakir has gone over this number in every one of his last five games to end last season and hit it in seven of his last ten. He also caught 8 passes in his only career meeting against Houston. If Buffalo is moving the chains, Shakir is often doing the moving.

🔥 Omarion Hampton Over 85.5 Rush+Receiving Yards

This one is about scheme more than recent history. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has a track record of turning average backs into productive ones, and Hampton is the clear beneficiary as the Chargers' first round back. Despite getting stuffed behind the line more than almost any back in football last year, he still posted a strong yards per carry average, suggesting real talent underneath a poor blocking situation.

Arizona's run defense ranked near the bottom of the league last season, and with the Chargers favored by nearly two touchdowns, game script should mean plenty of work for Hampton on the ground and through the air.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🎾 Intense drama inside Arthur Ashe Stadium. The new world number 1 has a shot at another major victory.

🔍️ This investigation won’t be happening on Twitter. The DOJ is taking an interest in the NBA’s latest scandal.

💰️ What would you do with game show winnings? One man turned it into a coaching career on the biggest stage.

🏒 It’s as good as done once somebody pays the $2 billion bill. The NHL’s 33rd team is coming to Texas, eventually.

🔥 Value in a Rookie Touchdown Scorer

Philadelphia's passing game behind DeVonta Smith is thin, and with A.J. Brown now gone to New England, somebody will have to fill the target void. My favorite option is for the debuting rookie, Makai Lemon, to fill that void and score an anytime touchdown, priced at +450.

Lemon put up a monster final season at USC, catching 79 balls for over 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns, and the Eagles' coaching staff has praised how locked in he is. Lemon had a rough preseason, managing just three yards on three catches with a costly drop, and he lost practice time to a hamstring issue. There are still several reasons to be bullish this weekend.

Washington's pass defense was one of the worst in football last season, and their coverage against slot receivers specifically was a major weak point, allowing a high passer rating and heavy fantasy production to that alignment. Their top corner has missed all of camp, a weakness that Lemon will hope to exploit.

One more thing worth knowing: even though Jalen Hurts leaned more on his arm than his legs near the goal line last season, the Eagles still ran him in for touchdowns inside the 5 yard line regularly. That means touchdown opportunities get spread around this offense. Sean Mannion will bring his new offense in this season, and if Lemon earns any red zone role, he has a legitimate shot to find the end zone in his debut.

⚾ Chasing Home Runs Tonight?

Just because football started, doesn’t mean baseball is over!
Jaxon has projections, live odds, hit rates, and a confidence score for every batter on the slate, so you're not just guessing who goes deep.

👉️ Click for the Home Run Sheet