Augusta National opens its gates Thursday morning. The azaleas are in bloom, Amen Corner is ready to break some hearts, and the green jacket will go to whoever survives 72 holes of the most strategically demanding course in the sport.

Before we get into the traditional betting markets, one of the most interesting markets available this week is whether any player will record a hole-in-one during the tournament. Since the Masters began in 1934, there have been 34 aces across 89 tournaments, meaning one occurs roughly once every two and a half events. The last one came in 2022, which puts us in the longest drought of the modern era. From 2000 through 2025 alone, 20 aces were recorded, an increase that was likely sparked by an improvement in technology with a more aggressive approach to the game.

The 16th hole is where it almost always happens. The pin position on Sunday at Redbud is historically the most ace-friendly setup in Augusta, using the green's natural slope to funnel tee shots toward the cup. Seventeen of the last twenty aces in the Masters have come on this hole. Dry, firm, fast conditions are in the forecast for the weekend, which makes that funneling effect more pronounced.

The “No” contract currently sits around 47% implied probability. The long-term historical base rate suggests something closer to 62%, which means the market is being generous on the no side. But the modern era trend and the Sunday conditions make this a contract worth buying early and monitoring through Saturday. If nothing happens by Sunday morning, selling before the final round is entirely reasonable.

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⛳️ Best Group and Matchup Bets for the 2026 Masters

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Some of my favorite golf bets to make for the Masters involve who will win in a matchup or group.  Here are a couple of reasons why you may want to take this route in addition to–or instead of–outrights or finishing positions.

Easier Research

Instead of looking at an entire field of 90+ golfers, you only have to research a few.  The tournament starts Thursday, so there’s not a lot of time to go down every single rabbit hole.

Less Variance

If a golfer has a bad hole or round, it could doom the entire bet given how formidable this field is.  However, it’s also possible others in that same group also struggle.  Maybe the golfer you back stinks less than everyone else.

Where to Start

DraftKings has several of these groups and matchups already posted.  Let’s use Jaxon’s AI tools and come up with some value plays:

Scottie Scheffler to Win Group A (+175)

This group pits the favorite against other notables: Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Åberg.  But, if there is any golfer who can reliably navigate Augusta National without having an awful stretch, it would be two-time Masters champion Scottie Scheffler.  

One reason is he’s good at just about everything.  If the Masters is a true test of every phase of the game, Scheffler finishing first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green over the last few years should help the cause.  

That floor of knowing he’ll be in contention has also been apparent in his scoring on Tour this season.  His birdie-or-better percentage is greater than 30% this season, more than any other golfer.  And, over his last four appearances at Augusta, Scheffler has never finished worse than tenth.

It’s not a massive payout, but a reliable one.

Akshay Bhatia to Win Group E (+350) 

They’re not nearly the juggernauts of Group A, but Min Woo Lee, Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott and Justin Thomas deserve respect on their names.

But Akshay Bhatia should finish ahead of them because of recent form.  Over his last five PGA Tour events, he’s finished no worse than 13th, including a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

For a course that punishes mistakes, Bhatia may simply make fewer than the rest of the group.  His birdie-or-better percentage this year is 28.22% (4th on Tour).  Min Woo Lee’s rate is marginally better, but the payout backing Bhatia is much higher.  Consider this bet a smart value play.

Justin Rose (-116) Defeats Jordan Spieth (-112)

It’s an intriguing matchup given Jordan Spieth has won the green jacket before, while Justin Rose lost his second Masters playoff just one year ago.  

But that’s exactly why backing Rose is the play.  He has a win this season and ranks ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, a critical stat for success at Augusta National.  Both the recent form and course history suggest Rose could be in contention again.

As for Spieth, he does not have a top-ten finish this season and his last win was four years ago.  Rose is showing the golf world more promise.

🌲 The Pine Line

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⛳️ Masters Round 1 Leader: Who to Watch

Finding the first round leader at Augusta is a high-risk, high-reward offering. You are not looking for the best golfer in the field. You are looking for the golfer whose skill set aligns most precisely with what Augusta National rewards in a single round, and then hoping they get hot.

The course places a premium on two things above almost everything else: approach play and the ability to sink putts. Players who can attack pins and bail themselves out when they miss are the ones who post 65s on Thursday.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000)

Fitzpatrick is almost perfectly constructed for this specific bet. He ranks in the 98th percentile in around the green performance and the 96th percentile in approach play. His driving accuracy sits in the 87th percentile, meaning he rarely gets in trouble off the tee, and his putting is comfortably above average.

Fitzpatrick is the kind of player who turns a round that could easily be 70 into a 66 simply by avoiding mistakes. At 30-to-1 he is one of the better options on the board.

Xander Schauffele (+2700)

Schauffele is the fourth-ranked player in the world by aggregate skill metrics and brings arguably the cleanest all-around profile. His approach play ranks in the 98th percentile, he has above average putting, and he adds elite driving distance which gives an advantage on holes 2, 8, 13, and 15.

At +2800, you are getting a top-five player in the world who ranks in the 70th percentile or better across every major statistical category.

Jake Knapp (+4600)

Knapp is the longshot entry, and the upside is compelling. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in driving distance, and reaching the par fives in two creates a couple good eagle opportunities. The number that stands out is his putting, which sits in the 99th percentile in strokes gained.

Combining elite distance with the best putting in the field is exactly the profile that produces a 63 or 64 out of nowhere on a Thursday. Augusta's fairways are wide enough to absorb some of his accuracy concerns. At better than 46-to-1, a small wager on Knapp carries real upside if he catches fire early.

Bet smarter, not harder.

The edge isn’t luck, it’s knowing what the field doesn’t. Keep your Masters research going by downloading the Pine Sports App. Pick the next winner of the green jacket with AI-powered insights in the palm of your hand.

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