⚾️ The Most Unlikely World Series in Decades

Someone is winning their first title, plus TNF props and LeBron's home debut in Philly

Author

Ian Maclin
October 22, 2026

Five franchises entered 2026 without a World Series title. By Halloween, that number will drop to four. The Brewers and Rays open the Fall Classic Friday night in Milwaukee, the first time two title-less teams have met since the Phillies beat the Royals in 1980.

Nobody snuck in, either. Milwaukee won a franchise-record 103 games, the most in baseball. Tampa Bay’s 98 led the American League. Both clubs run lean payrolls and lean hard on analytics, and they know each other well. Brewers baseball boss Matt Arnold spent nine years in the Rays front office, and Tampa’s top two starters, Rasmussen and Peralta, were Brewers teammates back in 2020-21.

Their routes here looked nothing alike. Milwaukee dispatched the Padres in four, then swept the two-time defending champion Dodgers and enters 7-1 this October. The Rays swept the Yankees but needed three straight wins to escape a 2-1 hole against Cleveland. Now the Brewers get a full week of rest while Tampa Bay gets three days, which matters for a bullpen that leaned heavily on closer Bryan Baker last round.

The Brewers led baseball in on-base percentage, scored nearly 100 more runs and struck out more hitters per nine innings (9.61 to 8.25). Tampa Bay’s staff counters with the lowest WHIP in the majors. Don’t expect fireworks: Milwaukee ranked 29th in homers and the Rays 22nd. This one will be won with contact, speed and pitching.

Game 1 is also the first World Series game at American Family Field and the first in Milwaukee in 44 years. With temps forecast around 50, the roof will likely stay shut, setting up what could be baseball’s first fully indoor World Series.

No matter what happens over the next 7-10 days, there is one guy that can’t lose. Jake Woodford pitched for both teams this year, 16 games for Milwaukee and one for Tampa Bay, who still technically employs him. A ring is coming his way no matter who wins.

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🏈 Patriots vs. Bears: Same Record, Different Methods

Two 4-2 teams, both top ten in total offense and defense. Chicago’s defense faces just 49.3 snaps per game, fewest in the NFL, because its run-heavy offense holds the ball for most of the night. Per play, the Bears allow 6 yards, which is tied for dead last in the league.

New England moves the ball well, sitting 4th in total yards gained this season, but they rank 17th in scoring and have a -6 turnover differential, 30th in the league.

The biggest edge is in coverage. Both defenses play man defense at one of the highest rates in the league. The only team that plays man coverage more than either team is the Cleveland Browns.

Henderson has cleared this line in four of five games this season, and his projection sits near 34 yards tonight. He’s been just as reliable away from home, averaging 35.5 combined yards in two road games. His workload is trending up too, with a carry projection around 6.5 against a line of 5.5.

The matchup helps: Chicago allows 4.49 yards per carry (24th) and the most yards per play in the league. The Bears limit how often you touch the ball, not what you do with it.

Williams’ return at Atlanta showed us where the ball is going. Loveland drew seven targets to Rome Odunze’s four and turned them into a season-high 65 yards and a touchdown. He’s now clearly the top tight end, out-snapping Cole Kmet 395 to 291. New England ranks 24th in completion percentage allowed and is thin at linebacker and safety, leaving the middle of the field open. Chicago converts 46% of third downs (6th), which means long drives and plenty of short, chain-moving targets for a tight end.

Maye has been sharp lately, with 10 TDs and just one pick during their current three-game win streak. Context matters, though. Six of his seven interceptions this season came on the road, and he’s thrown at least one in all three road starts, averaging two per game.

Tonight he sees the exact look he hates. Against man, Maye completes just 46% of his passes with a 77.9 rating, and Chicago runs it at the NFL’s second-highest rate. Add a Bears defense that leads the league in takeaways since the start of last season, plus Kyler Gordon coming off three sacks and two forced fumbles, and at least one mistake feels likely.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏀 This Warriors rookie had a memorable opening night debut. He has a new opinion on Lakers’ super star.

⚾️ Another year, another manager change in Los Angeles. The Angels are looking for the fifth manager in six years.

🏈 One player is out of a job after practice got heated. The situation spilled over into the parking lot and went too far.

♻️ The Warriors are exploring a move involving their veteran big man. It’s only relevant if he decides to keep playing at all.

🏀 LeBron’s Home Debut in Philly

Philadelphia’s opener should have been a loss. The Sixers shot 42% from the field and 28% from deep in New York and still left with a 106-100 win over the defending champs.

The defense was suffocating. The Knicks shot 37%, turned it over 15 times and had 10 shots blocked, and Philly cashed that pressure in for 24 fast-break points. Tonight they bring that formula home against a Cleveland team that hasn’t played a game yet.

The offense was better than the shooting numbers suggest, too. The Sixers piled up 28 assists against 12 turnovers. Once the shots start falling, look out.

LeBron’s home debut is the headline tonight, but don’t expect a scoring show. He went 5-of-13 and 0-for-3 from three on Opening Night, finishing with 14 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists. Right now he’s the connector, not the closer. Tyrese Maxey (28 points) and Jaylen Brown (team-best +17 point differential) carried the scoring load.

Embiid shot an ugly 4-of-15 in the opener and still got the double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds. Even on a bad night, the volume carries him. The odds imply about a 37% chance, but the model projects a 9.65% expected value, one of the best on any prop in this game.

Mobley and Allen will make him earn his boards, but with roughly 33 minutes and a steady diet of post touches, a second straight double-double looks more likely than the price suggests.

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