All four NFC South teams have just three wins, and only one of can win the division in January. It looks like a coin flip. It isn’t.

Tampa Bay (3-6, +160)

The Bucs rank 7th in total DVOA and they’re the only ones in the division in the top 15 (Carolina 18th, Atlanta 19th, New Orleans 28th). Tampa is also the only one with a positive point differential (+24). The defense ranks 1st in DVOA, allows a league-low 79.1 rushing yards per game and has given up just three rushing touchdowns all season. It also has 11 interceptions, 2nd-most in the NFL.

The passing game is a mess. Tampa ranks last in passing yards (174.3 per game) and passing touchdowns (six). But the Bucs lead the league in rushing at 163.9 yards per game, even won a game without completing a single pass.

Tampa Bay opened the season as division favorites at +110, and currently sit at +160. After surviving the 5th-toughest schedule so far, they now have the easiest remaining slate in football, which makes the current price a steal.

Carolina (3-5, +260)

The Panthers can move the ball. They rank 5th in total yards (401.1 per game) and 3rd in passing yards, and their pass defense is allowing just 6.68 yards per attempt (3rd). The problem is everything else on the defensive side. Carolina is 28th in points allowed, has given up a league-high 13 rushing touchdowns and ranks 29th in sack rate. They’ve lost three straight, Bryce Young has been sacked 11 times in the last two games, and they’re allowing 42.7 points per game at home.

Carolina opened the season with +425 division odds, so you’re not getting any value taking them at +260. They may have the best offense in the division, but they can’t stop anything coming the other direction.

Atlanta (3-6, +430)

The Falcons have the division’s second-best defense (10th in DVOA, 6th in QB hits) and a strong ground game at 4.79 yards per carry (4th). Despite that, they’ve thrown 12 interceptions (31st), score just 20.9 points per game (23rd), and have forced only three picks. They have endured the toughest strength of schedule so far, but unlike Tampa they still have a tough road ahead.

New Orleans (3-5, +520)

The Saints have won two of their last three and host Carolina this weekend. They’re 8th on third down and 3rd on fourth down conversions, but they rank 28th in total DVOA, allow 408.5 yards per game (30th) and sit 32nd in QB hit rate. They also face the second-hardest remaining schedule. 

They opened the season at +1500 to win the division and have moved all the way to +520, not because they’ve exceeded expectations but more because the rest of the division has underwhelmed.

The Pick: Buccaneers to win the NFC South at +160.

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🏈 Thursday Night Tiebreaker in New York

A month ago, Washington led the Giants by 14 in the fourth quarter, then blew a lead, botched the clock management in overtime, and settled for a 27-27 tie. Tonight’s rematch at MetLife decides the tiebreaker, with the NFC East-leading Giants (5-2-1) hosting a Washington team (2-5-1) trying to keep its season alive.

New York’s record is a little misleading. The Giants have played the softest schedule in football, and their total DVOA (-13.9%, 24th) is actually worse than Washington’s (-8.7%, 20th). Only one of their five wins came by double digits.

What they do have is a pass defense that can carry them. The Giants rank 2nd in passing yards allowed (200.8 per game) and yards per attempt (6.35), have given up only 15 completions of 20+ yards, and lead the NFL in forcing three-and-outs. That’s a rough draw for a Washington passing game that ranks 22nd in yards per attempt and is missing Terry McLaurin.

Washington’s path is on the ground. New York ranks 27th in yards per carry allowed (4.69), and Jayden Daniels is averaging 8.1 yards per rush. The problem is sustaining drives. The Commanders are dead last on third down at 32.1%. The good news is they protect the ball: only one interception all season, and none from Daniels.

The Giants’ offense isn’t much better, ranking 28th in DVOA. J.J. McCarthy has won six straight starts dating back to Minnesota, but he hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his two starts with New York and has been sacked eight times in the last two weeks. What the Giants do well is hold the ball, averaging 32:51 of possession per game, 2nd in the league. And for what it’s worth, they’re 1-6 on Thursday nights since 2020, but that was before Harbaugh’s arrival.

🔥 Cam Skattebo Over 62.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards 

Skattebo has cleared this in five of six games this season and all three at home, averaging 82.3 yards. He put up 71 yards against Washington in Week 5, and with New York controlling the clock, the touches will be there.

🔥 Isaiah Likely Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Likely torched Washington for 94 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets in the first meeting, and the Commanders allow the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. He’s averaging 56 yards per game, has cleared this number in four of his last five, and averages 64 yards at home.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏀 The Spurs started 0-2 and looked dead in the water. Now, their 10-game run has them in elite company.

🏆️ Two pitchers ran away with baseball’s top pitching honor. Not a single voter disagreed with the results.

🏎️ An accident at Daytona forced a late lineup change. The Emmy-nominated actor wound up in the hospital.

🗑️ Michael Carrick is out at Manchester United. What happens next might impact the USMNT.

🔥 Touchdown Pick of the Night: Isaiah Likely (+200)

The Giants don’t score a ton, but when they get close to the end zone, they look for one guy, Isaiah Likely.

Likely has six touchdowns through eight games, tied for most among tight ends. He’s seeing 8.6 targets per game, and his 27% target share ranks second at the position. The red-zone numbers are what make this bet. He has 11 red-zone targets, nine catches and five touchdowns. He’s also drawn four targets inside the 5-yard line, second-most among tight ends, and turned three of them into scores.

Washington is the ideal opponent. The Commanders have allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends in eight games, second-most in the NFL, and rank 24th in points allowed. Likely has already done the damage once this season, catching 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards and two scores in the Week 5 tie.

The total sits at a low 41.5, but that’s actually part of the case for Likely. When scoring chances are scarce, you want the player who gets the ball once the field shrinks, and for New York, that’s Isaiah Likely. He’s scored in three of his last five games and half his games overall, yet +200 implies only about a 33% chance he finds the end zone. I’ll take that price any day.

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