The NFL returns to the Bernabéu on Sunday morning, and if last year is any guide, don’t expect fireworks. The league’s first regular-season game in Spain ended as a 16-13 win for the Dolphins over Washington in overtime. They scored just 29 combined points in front of 78,000 fans.

This time it’s Cincinnati and Atlanta. The 5-2 Bengals rank 3rd in total DVOA and have outscored opponents by nearly seven points per game. The 3-5 Falcons sit 20th and have been outscored by roughly two per game. In fairness, Atlanta has faced the league’s 4th-toughest schedule, but they’ve had plenty of issues as well.

The Bengals have basically given up on running the ball. They’re 30th in rushing yards and 28th in yards per carry, and it hasn’t mattered. They lead the NFL in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage and third-down conversion rate, and they’re scoring 29.4 points a game. Joe Burrow has 20 touchdown passes and ranks 2nd in passing EPA.

Atlanta is built the opposite way. The Falcons rank 4th in rushing yards, but the passing game has been a mess: 27th in passing yards, 29th on third down and 11 interceptions, second-most in the league. A run-first team that can’t extend drives is going to have a hard time keeping pace with an offense like Cincinnati’s.

The Falcons’ defense is the best thing they have going. It ranks 10th in DVOA and 3rd in pressures per game. But it has just three interceptions and lets opponents run 65+ plays a game. Burrow will gladly take all those snaps.

The Pick: Bengals -3

🏈 Anytime TD Cheat Sheet  

Pine's Anytime TD Sheet gives you everything you need to predict this weekend’s touchdown scorers:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's TD projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has found the end zone over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

🏈 Soft Defenses, Heavy Workloads: Sunday’s Top Props

This Sunday, we have a quarterback facing the league’s softest pass defense, a running back whose workload just spiked, and a prime-time passer who should have all day to throw. Here are the best player props this weekend.

🔥 Jared Goff Over 261.5 Passing Yards

Miami’s pass defense is as bad as it gets. Opponents are completing 76.9% of their throws (32nd) at 8.64 yards per attempt (30th), and the Dolphins have allowed 16 passing touchdowns (31st). They also can’t get to the quarterback, with just six sacks all season and a 3.08% sack rate, both near the bottom of the league. Six of the seven QBs they’ve faced have thrown multiple touchdowns.

Goff, meanwhile, has 15 touchdowns, one interception and a 110.0 rating. He’s cleared this line in four of his last five games (averaging 286.2 yards) and seven of his last 10. On the road, he’s three-for-three at 336.7 yards per game. Detroit leads the NFL in total offense at 428.6 yards per game.

🔥 Kyren Williams Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts

After a 2-4 start, the Rams recommitted to the run, and Williams has handled 16 carries in each of the last two games, including a 6.2 yards-per-carry day against the Raiders. He’s cleared 13.5 in four of his last five (14.8 per game) and averages 14.0 on the season.

The matchup helps. Washington ranks 31st in opponent rush success rate, and Los Angeles averages 4.71 yards per carry (5th). On the other side, the Commanders convert just 31.9% of their third downs (31st) against a Rams defense that ranks 6th in DVOA. Short Washington drives mean more Rams possessions, and more carries for Williams.

🔥 Caleb Williams Over 245.5 Passing Yards

This is the riskiest of the three. Tampa Bay ranks 2nd in defensive DVOA, and Williams has averaged just 223 yards in two home games. But the Bucs are at their best against the run, allowing 3.58 yards per carry and only three rushing touchdowns all season. If Chicago’s ground game stalls, the ball goes to Williams.

He should have time, too. Tampa ranks 30th in pressure rate (19.3%) and 27th in pressures per game. The Bears run more plays than anyone (71.9 per game), throw for 271.3 yards per game, and complete 68.7% of their passes (4th). Williams has gone over this number in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 267.7 yards.

🌲 The Pine Line

🤯 What LSU did to Texas Southern last night made Division I history. The final margin is pretty hard to believe.

💸 Imagine spending $5 billion in 5 years and having nothing to show for it. LIV Golf is out of money and out of time.

📺️ NASCAR just set a new viewership record. The numbers from Martinsville are not what they wanted.

🏀 The Bay Area just threw a parade for its newest champions. The turnout was massive for the Valkyries first celebration.

🔥 Touchdown Bet of the Week: Matthew Golden

If you want a touchdown bet where the price hasn’t caught up to the opportunity, Matthew Golden at +186 is the one I’d circle on Sunday’s card.

Start with the volume. Golden has 82 targets through eight games, third-most among all receivers, and his 27% target share ranks seventh. He’s turned that into 43 catches for 619 yards, 7th at the position.

The red-zone usage is what makes this. Golden has 15 red-zone targets, fourth-most in the league among receivers, and his nine red-zone catches rank third. He’s also seen six targets inside the 10. Yet he’s only converted that into three red-zone touchdowns, and four total on the season. Receivers who see nearly two red-zone targets a game don’t usually stay quiet for long.

New England won’t make it easy, but there are openings. The Patriots rank 9th in points allowed and 11th in defensive DVOA, so this isn’t a soft unit overall. Through the air, though, they give up 7.9 yards per pass attempt (22nd) and a 66.2% completion rate (24th), and they rank 25th against receivers. That’s a defense that lets offenses move the ball, and every drive that reaches the red zone is another shot for Golden.

At +186, the books are giving him roughly a 35% chance to score. Based on his workload, that’s too low.

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