Minnesota enters Game 5 in Denver without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo, and the Nuggets have an opportunity that is on the cusp of slipping away from them.

Edwards missing a playoff game would be significant on its own. The Timberwolves losing their primary shot creator, their best perimeter defender, and their closer simultaneously is a different kind of problem. DiVincenzo compounds it. The starting lineup featuring both players alongside Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert logged the most combined minutes of any five-man unit in the entire NBA this season. It won’t be easy replacing 40% of their starting line.

Analyzing matchups with significant injury news is a great use case for Jaxon. We’re able to find out that Minnesota went 12-9 without Edwards during the regular season but with a couple caveats. The wins came in bunches against weaker teams, including a 36-point demolition of Utah and a 33-point win over Milwaukee. The losses came against teams with more offensive firepower, including a 22-point beatdown by Detroit where the Timberwolves scored just 87 points. 

The pattern in Edwards' absence is stark: Minnesota either blows out inferior opponents or gets blown out themselves. The Timberwolves' defense has been elite all season, but without Edwards disrupting passing lanes and locking down the perimeter, Denver's half-court execution gains a significant advantage.

The Nuggets rank first in the NBA in offensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage, and first in half-court points per 100 possessions. They protect the ball at the third-best rate in the league, which eliminates the transition opportunities Minnesota typically relies on when their offense stalls.

Nikola Jokic has been through enough playoff adversity to know what a gift looks like when it arrives. A Game 5 at home, trailing in a series, with the opposing team's best player unavailable is about as clear an opportunity as the postseason offers.

Whether Denver can sustain it and actually climb back into this series remains to be seen. For now, the math does seem to point in their direction. I have a hard time finding even money worth a gamble on their series comeback, but I’m backing the Nuggets to win convincingly in Game 5.

Keep reading below for tonight’s top player props 👇️ 

⚾️ Stop Guessing on NRFI Props

Ask Jaxon to break down today's NRFI slate before first pitch:

NRFI Records – Rank teams by how often they keep the first inning scoreless
Starting Pitcher Matchups – Layer in arm quality to zero in on your best spots
Park Factors – Factor in ballpark conditions to sharpen your edge

Narrow an overwhelming MLB slate down to two or three spots worth backing, in seconds.

💯 Keeping it 100 in the NBA Tonight

The playoffs are delivering exactly what they promised, and today we’re using Pine's 100 sheet to identify the props hitting in Round 1. Then we dig into the specifics with Jaxon to confirm the recent trends. Here are three props worth backing Monday using this approach.

Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Blocks (-146)

Oklahoma City is one game away from sweeping Phoenix, and Holmgren has recorded at least two blocks in every single game of this series and in each of his last six games overall. His block percentage ranks in the 89th percentile and he has totaled 131 blocks in 69 games this season, third among all bigs in the league.

The Phoenix situation actually helps here. Facing potential elimination, the Suns should push the pace and attack the paint more aggressively than they have in their previous three outings. Holmgren is a help-side blocker who does not need to be stationed directly at the rim to reject shots, his length allows him to contest pull-ups and mid-range attempts that most bigs cannot reach. He has hit this line in 70% of his last ten games and 100% of his last five. Back him to keep the streak alive.

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-105)

Harris has cleared this line in all three games of the Detroit-Orlando series and is averaging 28.17 PRA against the Magic across six regular-season meetings this year. The matchup looks strange on paper because Orlando ranks first in the league defending forwards in this category, but Harris has found the specific gap in their scheme repeatedly.

He operates predominantly from the mid-range, ranking in the 92nd percentile in both frequency and efficiency from that zone, and Orlando allows a 44.8% effective field goal percentage on mid-range attempts, which ranks 25th in the league. 

His floor is high and he is playing his best basketball of the year at exactly the right moment.

Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Made Threes (-105)

Robinson has hit exactly three threes in each of the first three games of this series and is averaging 3 makes per game over his last ten contests. He is operating in the 94th percentile for three-point volume among wings and shoots 42% from non-corner locations, where Orlando ranks 13th defensively.

Cade Cunningham drawing double teams and running Detroit's transition attack at the highest frequency in the league means Robinson is constantly finding open looks trailing the play. He accounted for half of Detroit's total three-point makes in Game 2 while the rest of the team shot 25% from deep. If Kevin Huerter remains limited/out, Robinson's role and volume stay steady.

 🌲 The Pine Line

⛳️ Two brothers just won a PGA Tour event together. Meaningful for both, but truly life-changing for one of them.

🏒 Kopitar’s final run deserved a better ending. The Avs made sure it didn’t get one.

⚽️ The situation didn’t change this weekend for soccer’s most shocking battle. The Opta supercomputer isn’t in their favor either.

🏎️ It’s been nearly 30 years since Buenos Aires saw a Grand Prix. They have 600,000 reasons to bring F1 back.

⚾️ Alex Cora isn’t the only manager losing their job. See who else should be treading lightly.

🏒 Can the Penguins Make History?

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Only four times in the history of the Stanley Cup Playoffs has a team overcome a 3-0 deficit to win a series, the most recent happening in 2014 when the Los Angeles Kings made history over the San Jose Sharks.  

A Trip Down Memory Lane

The Kings were +125 underdogs in that series after finishing with 11 fewer points than San Jose and not having home ice.  Not only did LA overcome the likes of Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau…every Kings win in that comeback was by three goals or more.  

Blowout after blowout.  

Fast Forward to Today

The Pittsburgh Penguins will try to become the fifth team ever to pull off the feat after trailing 3-0 to the Philadelphia Flyers.  Can capturing Game 4 serve as a blueprint for how to jumpstart this offense and dominate their in-state rivals?

How to Bet It

Pittsburgh was a -150 favorite to win the series; now, they’re 5/1 on FanDuel to win three-straight games.  The Pens are -120 to win Game 5 on the moneyline, so assuming those odds won’t change a lot for each subsequent game, it’s actually more profitable to do two rollover bets instead of a series bet because the compounded moneyline odds return more than the series price.

However, Jaxon and I agree: proceed with caution.  

Biggest Concern

One reason why Sidney Crosby and company were significant favorites was special teams.  This season, Pittsburgh ranked seventh in power play conversion rate (24.1%) while Philly was dead last (15.7%).  

Also, on the penalty kill, the Penguins came in sixth (81.4%) while the Flyers were 22nd (77.6%).

However, this stat isn’t sticky, meaning special teams success isn’t predictive from one game to the next.  Any hockey game with few whistles or several weird puck bounces can erase this advantage, especially when a single off-game ends the entire rollover.

Bet only a fraction of your unit size on a Pittsburgh rollover, if at all.

As for the other best bets on games happening Monday and Tuesday, here’s where the value is:

Jack Eichel (Vegas) O1.5 Points (+180)

There are two main reasons why this bet can cash.  First, Jack Eichel is averaging 1.8 points over his last five games.  For a plus-money bet, you’re getting good value that he can remain consistent.

Second, Eichel ranks in the 99th percentile in miles skated per game this season with 4.66!  His ability to be at the right place at the right time, no matter the time of the game, suggests he’ll create several opportunities to manufacture offense.  

⚾️ MLB Season is Here

Every edge counts this season. Ask Jaxon about vulnerable starting pitchers or home-run heavy ballpark conditions, and then head over to the MLB sheets to view additional stats and shop for the best odds.