We’re just a day away from kicking off the new NFL season, and if you support a California team, you should have plenty of hope going into the new year.

The Rams bought a championship roster this offseason. They extended Stafford, traded for Myles Garrett, and somehow got Aaron Donald out of retirement. Last year's offense led the league in scoring, but at +500, you're paying favorite pricing for a team that needs Stafford healthy for all 17 games, a rebuilt secondary to gel instantly, and history to ignore itself. Preseason favorites have flopped for years now and the price leaves no room for error.

San Francisco matched the Rams win for win last season despite being hit hard by injuries, and they’ve made the postseason in 5 of the last 7 years. Their path is complicated by a defense that struggled badly to generate pressure and takeaways, along with major health questions surrounding key names like George Kittle, Nick Bosa, and Mike Evans. If the roster stays healthy, the talent and favorable early schedule could make them a real sleeper at +1700 odds, but the defensive red flags are hard to ignore.

The Chargers won eleven games and returned to the playoffs despite major offensive line injuries, and that unit has now been rebuilt with healthy returning starters and fresh additions. Mike McDaniel joins the group to call plays for a QB with one of the best arms in football. Their brutal midseason schedule against several of the league's top teams is one of the main obstacles, but Harbaugh has beaten his win total in five of six seasons as a head coach.

If I'm putting money on a California team, it's the Chargers at +1500. While everyone tails the Rams, the smarter play is sitting further down the board.

🏈 NFL Anytime Touchdown Cheat Sheet

Pine's Anytime TD Sheet gives you everything you need to pick this weekend’s touchdown scorers:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's TD projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has found the end zone over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

🏈 NFL Season Kickoff and Super Bowl Rematch

Wednesday night's opener at Lumen Field carries extra weight as a rematch of Super Bowl LX, where Seattle throttled New England 29-13 to close out a dominant championship run. The Seahawks return largely intact after finishing 14-3, leading the league in scoring defense, and riding a historically efficient unit that ranked first in yards per play allowed and first in EPA per play. Sam Darnold had a career year running an offense that finished third in scoring, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba turning in a league leading receiving season that earned him Offensive Player of the Year.

New England's story was more improbable. A year removed from a four win season, Mike Vrabel's club rode an explosive Drake Maye and a historically favorable schedule to thirteen wins and an AFC title. Maye finished as a top tier fantasy quarterback and MVP runner up, leading the league in yards per play and completion percentage. But the softness of that schedule caught up with them on the biggest stage, where Seattle exposed their offensive line and cruised to the title.

Both rosters look different after this offseason. Seattle mostly ran it back, locking up young stars like Charles Cross and Devon Witherspoon while losing Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker to Kansas City in free agency. That leaves a rookie and a backup handling lead duties in the backfield, alongside a new offensive coordinator and a reshuffled secondary. New England took the opposite approach, aggressively upgrading around Maye by trading for receiver A.J. Brown and reinforcing the offensive line, while also retooling the defensive front.

⭐️ New England to Cover +3.5

The market has noticed New England's improvements. Seattle opened as 4.5 point favorites but has since been bet down to 3.5, with the total also sliding lower, both signs of money coming in on the Patriots. Taking the Patriots at +3.5 makes sense given their elite offensive efficiency a year ago and the additions since, paired with a Seattle offense that now leans on unproven pieces at running back and play calling.

⭐️Drake Maye Over 225.5 Passing Yards

Drake Maye passing yards is another angle worth attacking, since he averaged well beyond this mark last season and now faces a Seattle defense that limits scoring far better than it limits total passing yardage. Seattle's compromised run game could hurt their ability to sustain drives and result in more overall volume from New England.

⭐️Drake Maye Over 0.5 Interceptions

Finally, Maye throwing a pick lines up with both his recent trend of throwing at least one interception in the majority of his outings last season. Seattle’s secondary forced turnovers at one of the highest rates in football last season.

🌲 The Pine Line

💰️ The Patriots locked up their cornerstone CB. The new deal makes Gonzalez the highest paid corner in history.

🌙 The lights went out in Tallahassee. The result was modern football without all the technology.

⚾️ Both teams were scoreless through nine innings. It just took one extra inning to cash the over.

🚨 The disruptions in Berlin are becoming frequent. Teams at the FIBA Women’s World Cup keep getting evacuated.

⚽️ Champions League Kicks Off

The Champions League returns with a loaded Tuesday slate, headlined by a heavyweight reunion in Madrid and a couple of matchups that look ready to produce goals.

Inter Milan at Real Madrid

Jose Mourinho is back in the Bernabeu and goes against a former pupil now managing Inter. On paper the attacking firepower favors the hosts. Madrid has a remarkable streak of scoring in every home Champions League match for a decade and Kylian Mbappe is closing in on a top 5 spot among the competition's all time scorers. 

Madrid's defense has been shakier than the reputation suggests, managing only a couple of clean sheets at home across their last seventeen continental matches. Still, recent history heavily favors the home side, with Inter winless in their last several meetings. This feels like a game to watch unfold rather than force a bet into.

Villarreal/Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 Goals

This one screams goals. Dortmund kept clean sheets in only a couple of matches across their entire European campaign a year ago, and Villarreal have been involved in high scoring, high chance games all season despite failing to win.

Serhou Guirassy is in red hot form up front for Dortmund, and history between these two clubs suggests both sides tend to find the net when they meet. With plus money available on the over, this looks like strong value for a fixture built for chaos.

Club Brugge Moneyline vs Aston Villa

Brugge have been nearly unbeatable at home in this competition in recent years. Villa enter this one out of sorts domestically, managing just a single point so far this season. Backing Brugge on the moneyline looks like a sound way to capitalize on their European home strength against a Villa side still searching for its footing.

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