England and Mexico gave us a frontrunner for match of the tournament last night in Mexico City. In 90 competitive matches at the Azteca stadium, this is only the 3rd time Mexico has lost in regulation.

Mexico controlled possession early, but England scored two quick goals via Jude Bellingham late in the first half shortly followed by a Mexico goal in response. The 2nd half started with an England red card, but it was England who capitalized on a penalty shot a few minutes later for a two goal lead. Mexico got one goal back but couldn’t find the late equalizer with the man advantage.

They’re not short of resilience in the England squad. Their first knockout match against DR Congo was equally exciting, trailing to the underdogs for most of the game before Harry Kane scored two late goals for the victory.

England generated just six total shots last night, put five on target, and converted three of them. A 50% shot-to-goal conversion rate isn't something you can expect every game, but this team knows how to punish opponents when chances arrive.

England opened the tournament at around 10% implied odds to win the whole thing. After dropping down to 7%, they are only up to 14% after securing their spot in the quarterfinals against Norway, with only France and Argentina priced ahead of them.

With Harry Kane and Bellingham finding form behind Thomas Tuchel’s tactics, they are worth a shot at the current price.

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⚽️ FIFA Gives USA a Helping Hand for Round of 16

The USMNT could make team history tonight by winning their second knockout game for the first time in a World Cup, and they’re getting some help.

In an unprecedented decision, FIFA has reinstated Folarin Balogun after overturning his red card from the Bosnia-Herzegovina match, where he was sent off following a VAR review in the 64th minute. The VAR intervention has been met with strictly criticism given the situation: there was no intent, recklessness, or serious danger in the foul that got him sent off.

The U.S. held on shorthanded, maintained 48.4% possession over the final 26 minutes, and extended the lead through Malik Tillman's brilliant free kick. But getting Balogun back for Belgium changes the tactical picture significantly. He opened the scoring against Bosnia before the red card, and his ability to stretch a backline has been a boost to Pochettino's system.

Through four matches, the U.S. has posted a 3-1-0 record, scoring ten goals and conceding four. They've found the net in every single game, averaging 2.5 goals per game, and have kept three clean sheets. Matt Freese has been excellent in goal, Antonee Robinson led the team with 13 defensive interventions in the last match, and Tillman has emerged as the creative hub with an assist before his direct free kick conversion.

Belgium, meanwhile, has been living dangerously. They drew with Egypt and Iran in the group stage, then trailed Senegal 2-0 as late as the 86th minute before winning in extra time. They conceded 19 shots and committed 22 fouls against Senegal, a team far less organized than what they're about to face. Belgium's inability to handle compact defensive blocks and physical transitions has been consistent throughout this tournament.

First Goal: USA (-110)

The matchup angle that stands out most is early goals. The U.S. has scored first in three of their four matches, twice within the opening five minutes. Belgium has conceded first in two of their four games. If the Americans grab an early lead, Belgium will be forced to push forward and abandon the defensive structure that has barely kept them afloat.

🌲 The Pine Line

✈️ A word of advice if you want a new job. Don’t do what Aiyuk is doing. 

💰️ The Dallas Stars are in a stand off with their best forward. A third part will decide what he’s worth.

🎸 Nothing beats a mariachi lullaby outside your hotel room. Fans did their part for the national team.

☀️ No rain at Silverstone this weekend. The race still managed to finish under caution.

🚴 Tour de France has never closed a stage to the public. A wildfire is disrupting cycling’s biggest event.

⚾️ Today’s Best Run-Scoring Environments

Two games on today's slate stand out as the best environments for hitting, and both have the pitcher matchup data to back it up.

Phillies at Royals (2:10 PM ET)

Kauffman Stadium doesn't get enough credit as an offensive venue. It ranks 11th overall in park factors, with a 104 hits factor and a 102 runs factor, and crucially, its strikeout suppression factor sits at 90 meaning more balls are going into play than at virtually any other stadium in baseball.

Cristopher Sánchez has allowed a .308 average and a .370 wOBA to the current Royals roster, and Lane Thomas is hitting .500 against him specifically across 12 at-bats. On the other side, J.T. Realmuto is hitting .667 against Noah Cameron with a home run in three plate appearances, and Kyle Schwarber has already taken him deep once in 3 at-bats. Both pitchers are hittable, and the park rewards contact.. Runners are getting on base in this one.

Rockies at Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)

Dodger Stadium carries a home run park factor of 127, which is 27% above league average, and Colorado is sending Kyle Freeland to the mound against a lineup that has historically feasted on him. In 172 plate appearances against the expected starting lineup for the Dodgers, Freeland has surrendered 51 hits and 11 home runs, producing a .297 batting average against him.

The individual matchups make it worse for Freeland. Shohei Ohtani is hitting .538 against him in 13 at-bats with two home runs and a .683 wOBA. Andy Pages is at .600 in ten at-bats with two more home runs and no strikeouts. Mookie Betts has 13 career hits and three home runs across 47 plate appearances against the lefty. This is a lineup that knows Freeland and has consistently punished him.

The Rockies aren't completely without their own offensive angle, Eric Lauer carries a .297 career average allowed against the current Colorado roster. However, the primary driver here is Los Angeles exploiting a struggling left-hander in a power-friendly park. This game has runs written all over it.

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