Toronto is pounding the Yankees with 29 runs through three ALDS games. They’ve cemented themselves as a legitimate World Series threat. The Dodgers may be the consensus favorite, but right now, the Jays are the high odds team (+550 on Draftkings) that look way under-valued.

Don’t be fooled by last night’s loss, Toronto could be the most complete team in the American League. A blend of explosive offense and elite pitching depth. The emergence of rookie Trey Yesavage, combined with Kevin Gausman, has given Toronto more pitching options than most teams. Star pitchers Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt were not even included for the ALDS roster.

Add in an offense led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho, with Bo Bichette potentially returning soon, and this team looks ready to take on anyone.

The Dodgers might have the pedigree, but if you’re looking for a futures bet that still carries value, the Blue Jays might just be the smartest play in October.

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🏈 TNF Preview and Props

Since rookie Jaxson Dart took over at quarterback, the Giants have been scrappy but inconsistent. His Week 4 debut was a spark, running for 54 yards and accounting for two touchdowns. Other than that, the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play.

That win came mostly from defensive turnovers setting up short fields, not sustained drives. With top receiver Malik Nabers sidelined, the Giants are even more dependent on their run game and Dart’s legs to move the chains.

The Eagles aren’t without flaws, most notably their high three-and-out rate (46.3%) and a run defense ranked 21st in the league. Philadelphia simply converts yardage into points at a much higher rate, protects the ball, and plays stingier third-down defense.

Expect a gritty divisional game early, but over four quarters, the Eagles’ depth and discipline should prove too much for a limited Giants offense.

DeVonta Smith Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

The Giants rank 31st against wide receivers, allowing nearly 184 yards per game to the position. Smith has averaged 54.4 receiving yards over his last five games and gone over this total in 60% of them. He put up a whopping 114 in Week 5. With the Giants struggling in coverage and the Eagles likely to exploit that weakness, Smith should clear 50 yards.

Saquon Barkley Over 14.5 Receiving Yards

Barkley’s role as a receiver has quietly expanded, averaging 25.6 receiving yards over his last five and catching over three passes per game. The Eagles have allowed success to receiving backs, and with their offensive line issues leading to quick checkdowns, Barkley should easily see enough targets to hit this number. It’s a low bar for one of the league’s most versatile backs.

Theo Johnson Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

With Malik Nabers sidelined, the Giants have shifted focus toward their tight ends and Theo Johnson has been the biggest beneficiary. He’s averaging 31.5 yards over his last ten games and has scored three touchdowns from nine receptions in the two games since Dart took over. 

The Eagles are strong against tight ends, but volume alone makes Johnson’s over appealing, especially if the Giants are forced to throw short.

Jalen Hurts Over 40.5 Rushing Yards

Hurts continues to be one of Philadelphia’s most reliable rushing options, averaging 36.4 yards on the ground over his last five contests. The Giants defense ranks 22nd against mobile quarterbacks, and Hurts’ combination of designed runs and scrambles gives him plenty of paths to clear 40 yards. Expect the Eagles to rely on his legs to extend drives and offset pressure.

 🌲 The Pine Line

😵 Half the remaining field was KO’d in Week 5. You’re still alive if you follow these Survivor Pool selections. 

🏆️ The banner went up in Florida. A new chase for the cup begins.

🚙 You think you’ve had bad luck with parking? Not unless it led to felony charges and up to six-years. 

📺️ Two streaming giants. One legendary coach. Zero interest in finishing the story.

👑 LeBron really had the world on edge for a liquor commercial…and didn’t even drop a discount code.

🏈 Flacco off to Cincinnati and Shedeur is QB2 in Cleveland. What has the AFC North come to?

🏒 Bruins/Caps Breakdown and Predictions

The numbers tell the story. Washington was one of the strongest home teams from last season, outscoring opponents by nearly a goal per game (+0.83 goal differential) and converting efficiently on the power play with 0.64 goals per game.

Boston ended last season trending downward with a -0.61 goal differential and a projected -0.78 heading into tonight. With Alex Ovechkin sitting just three goals shy of 900, the energy in Capital One Arena should be high from puck drop.

The sharp bettors are siding with Washington too. The Capitals hold a 62.7% sharp win probability on the moneyline and a slight edge against the spread. Everything from team form to market sentiment supports the home team. Expect Washington to control the pace and deliver a confident win tonight.

Here are two player props that fit this matchup perfectly…

Tom Wilson (WAS) Over 2.5 Hits (-180 ESPN BET)

Wilson’s physical edge was one of Washington’s defining traits last season, and his matchup history with Boston makes this prop stand out.

In three meetings with the Bruins during the 2024 season, he hit the Over every time, averaging 3.3 hits per game. Across his final five games of the year, Wilson averaged nearly six hits per game. Wilson should again have plenty of chances to make his presence felt tonight.

Tanner Jeannot (BOS) Over 2.5 Hits (+103 ESPN BET)

Jeannot’s game thrives on energy and physicality, especially when Boston plays from behind. He cleared this number in both matchups against Washington last season, averaging 3.0 hits per game. Over his final 10 games of the year, he went Over in 70% of them, averaging 3.3 hits.

With plus-money odds and a proven track record against the Capitals, Jeannot’s Over offers one of the best value plays on the board.

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