The first-round bye is supposed to be the ultimate prize. An extra week to heal, game plan, and watch your potential opponents beat each other up while you rest at home. The No. 1 seed gets home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, fresh legs, and time to scheme. On paper, it's the golden ticket to the Conference Championship.

But the data tells a more complicated story. While 70% of top seeds successfully navigate their first playoff game over the last decade, since 2020, the win percentage for No. 1 seeds has dipped to 61.1%. This is highlighted by high-profile flameouts like the 2023 Baltimore Ravens, 2021 Green Bay Packers, and 2021 Tennessee Titans. The question heading into this weekend's Divisional Round is simple: does rest help, or does rust kill?

Why Top Seeds Fall

The most consistent pattern among early eliminations is offensive stagnation. The 2021 Tennessee Titans are the textbook example. Despite a week of rest and the return of Derrick Henry, the offense struggled with timing. Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions, and they barely surpassed 200 total yards as a team.

The 2019 Baltimore Ravens entered the Divisional Round as a historically efficient rushing machine. After the first round bye, they were forced away from their offensive identity early and couldn’t recover against Derrick Henry and the Titans.

Coaching and planning matter as much as anything. Since 2020, Andy Reid and the Chiefs are the only team to parlay a No. 1 seed into a Super Bowl title (Super Bowl LVII). Home-field dominance is the other massive edge. The No. 1 seed ensures that the road to the Super Bowl goes through the top seed's stadium. For teams like the Seattle Seahawks, this has historically been a huge advantage. All three of Seattle's Super Bowl appearances (2005, 2013, 2014) came when they held the NFC's No. 1 seed.

Denver and Seattle on the Clock

This weekend, the Denver Broncos (AFC No. 1) and Seattle Seahawks (NFC No. 1) are looking to uphold the historical advantage of the bye. Both teams finished 14-3, and both teams enter with elite defenses. Denver's defense leads the league in sacks (68) and pressure rate, while Seattle's defense ranks first in DVOA (-24.2%).

The Broncos face the Buffalo Bills, who are coming off a Wild Card win on short rest. Denver is favored by 1.5 points despite Buffalo's recent momentum, reflecting the significant weight oddsmakers give to rest disparity. The question is whether Bo Nix can maintain efficiency after the layoff, as Denver's offense has been league-average in EPA all season.

The Seahawks host the San Francisco 49ers, favored by 7.5 points. Seattle is 3-0 in reaching the Super Bowl when holding the No. 1 seed, and their defense has been suffocating all year. But the 49ers just dismantled the Eagles on the road as a massive underdog, and they bring momentum that has historically troubled rested top seeds.

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⛳ Sony Open 2026: The Season Opener

The PGA Tour's 2026 season was supposed to begin at The Sentry in Maui. Instead, severe drought conditions forced the cancellation of the event, thrusting the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club into an unexpected spotlight. What's typically the "other" Hawaii event is now the official season opener.

The Sony Open has been a staple of the PGA Tour since 1965. Waialae Country Club is a par-70 track measuring 7,044 yards. It's a "shot-maker's" course that emphasizes precision, strategy, and putting over raw power. Success here typically requires comfort on Bermuda greens and the ability to control your ball in windy conditions, with gusts projected to reach 30 mph this week. The $9.1 million purse and 120-player field create a full-field event atmosphere that's rare for early January.

The trend is clear: you need to go low. Seven of the last 10 winners have finished at 16-under par or better. Tight finishes are the norm as six consecutive editions have been decided by one stroke or in a playoff, suggesting the field bunches at the top when conditions are favorable.

Russell Henley (+1100) enters as the betting favorite and the highest-ranked player in the field at World No. 5. He's joined by Ben Griffin (+1700), who had a  three-win season in 2025 and is currently playing some of the best golf on the planet. Hideki Matsuyama (+1700) returns to a course where he's won before, and J.J. Spaun (+1800) brings momentum after his 2025 U.S. Open victory at Oakmont.

Let's break down the best bets for the week.

J.J. Spaun Top 10 Finish (+190)

J.J. Spaun enters the Sony Open as one of the most statistically compelling plays in the field. Coming off a career-defining 2025 season that included a U.S. Open victory at Oakmont, Spaun has transformed from a steady journeyman into a legitimate top-tier threat. He's climbed from World No. 115 to a career-best No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking over the past year, and his game is built perfectly for Waialae.

The elite iron play is what sets Spaun apart. He finished last season ranked 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is the most critical metric for success at this course. Seven of the last 10 winners here have ranked 7th or better in SG: Approach during their winning week. Spaun's ability to control his irons from 150-175 yards, a range that accounts for over 25% of approach shots at Waialae, is a massive edge. 

Spaun carries significant momentum into Honolulu, having finished no worse than T11 in his last three starts of 2025. Most recently, he posted a T4 at the Hero World Challenge in December, proving his game remained sharp during the brief winter break. He's made 21 of 25 cuts last season and recorded seven top-10 finishes.

The course history seals it. Spaun was the 54-hole leader at this event last year before ultimately finishing T3. He led the field in SG: Approach at Waialae and has posted finishes of T12 and T3 in two of his last three appearances here. He's a Bermuda specialist, ranking 7th in strokes gained per round on Bermuda greens last season.

Eric Cole Top 20 Finish (+225)

Cole's ability to gain strokes on the green is his greatest weapon. At a course like Waialae, where the winning score often pushes toward 20-under par, you cannot afford a cold putter. Cole has shown the ability to string together multiple rounds in the mid-60s, which is exactly what's required to secure a top-20 spot in this field.

Cole is a Bermuda specialist who grew up playing similar courses in Florida, and he has a stellar track record at Waialae. He finished 13th in 2024 and 5th in 2025, and Cole himself has noted how comfortable he feels on these greens. His consistency is frequently cited in DFS circles as a foundational piece for lineups because of his high floor. 

This is a statistically sound play based on course fit and current form. Cole's game doesn't rely on the "bomb and gouge" style that's neutralized at Waialae. Instead, he relies on wedge proximity and putting, which are the two most correlated stats with success at the Sony Open. At +225, Cole offers excellent value.

 🌲 The Pine Line

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🚑️ No surgery needed for the Mavericks’ star big man. Dallas is reportedly listening to offers. 

👑 The Last Stylebender is returning to the octagon at UFC Seattle. His trajectory has been in freefall since losing the belt.

📈 Almost half of the NFL teams are expected to make one specific change. Expect offenses to look completely different next year. 

🏂️ Dislocated shoulder won’t stop the three-peat. Chloe Kim’s status for the Olympics is in the air. 

🏈 College Football National Championship Best Bets

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

You’re not alone if you believe Indiana football should CRUISE to its first-ever National Championship.  The Hoosiers opened as 7.5-point favorites over Miami despite the game being played at…(checks notes)...Miami.  In four days, the early money has been on Indiana, and the line has moved to -8.5, signaling sharp bettors' confidence in the Hoosiers.

Not a Homefield Advantage

Treat this game like it's on a neutral field, because it essentially is.

Indiana won’t have to worry about the usual road-game adjustments like silent counts or crowd noise.  Each team has 20,000 tickets allocated to them, creating a split atmosphere.  The get-in price is more than $3,000 with Hoosier fans driving up demand.  Their massive alumni base has consistently traveled well throughout the season, and Monday night should be no different.

It's also still January, so don't expect the oppressive heat and humidity South Florida is known for. Fernando Mendoza and company should be perfectly comfortable in this different environment.

Best Bets

While Indiana could be anointed as arguably THE BEST team in college football history, Miami could capture its first National Championship since 2001.  Using Jaxon’s powerful AI tool, here are the best bets to help you finish the college football season strongly:

Malachi Toney Anytime TD (+145)

Malachi Toney has nearly twice as many receptions as any other Miami Hurricane this season, making him Carson Beck’s go-to weapon.  He’s caught five passes in every playoff game this stretch, including against Texas A&M and Ohio State, two defensive slugfests.  

Against Indiana’s fundamentally sound defense, Miami could go beyond jet sweeps and screens and get creative with trick plays to get him the ball.  Even if it’s a blowout, at +145, Toney represents excellent value as Miami's likeliest scorer.

Indiana Team Total O29.5 (-112)

If the Hoosiers truly are “execution monsters”, then Indiana’s Heisman-winning quarterback should have no trouble getting the Hoosiers to 30 points.  

Yes, Fernando Mendoza is facing a vaunted front seven, but his offense ranks first in points per drive and second in EPA per play, and Indiana has reached these marks despite battling against other fantastic defenses.  

The offensive line has surrendered just 11 quarterback pressures in two playoff games, so Mendoza should have the necessary time to find open targets.  Wide receiver Elijah Sarratt has also scored in every game since returning from injury, proving Indiana has reliable red-zone weapons.

The Hurricanes also rank 89th in allowing explosive pass plays, and considering cornerback Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game because of a targeting penalty in the semifinal, Mendoza could hit this over before halftime, much less for the whole game.

Indiana -8.5 (-105)

Even if you believe Miami attempts to control the clock with Mark Fletcher Jr. and limit Mendoza's possessions, Indiana's defense ranks third in rushing success rate allowed.  Even if you think Carson Beck can show us more, the Hoosiers rank fourth in EPA per pass allowed.  

We’ve also seen Miami unravel, ranking 113th with 7.2 penalties per game (Indiana ranks fourth with 3.5.  Being fundamentally sound is just another reason why, if this spread is sharp, Indiana could still cover it.  

Key Takeaway

Do not expect a competitive National Championship Game. Expect the Hoosiers to complete one of the greatest stories in college football history, and to reward backers handsomely in the process.

Short on time?

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