The AL West is on the verge of making MLB history. With four games left, both the Astros and Rangers are tied at 78-80, meaning this division could crown the first division champion with a losing record ever in MLB history.

The Astros won the season series 9-4, so a dead even finish sends them to the playoffs. Texas has to finish ahead, not just tie. Not only that, but the team that comes up short is unlikely to even qualify as a wild card (3 games back) so the stakes are even higher.

Both teams are hovering around league average production, but are getting there in very different ways. Houston slugs and hits homers (3rd most) but can't hit for average (22nd). Texas gets on base (13th OBP) but doesn't do damage (25th Runs). On the mound, Texas is the better team, with a lower FIP and far better control, while Houston's pitching staff has been one of the league's worst by advanced metrics (25th Pitching WAR).

None of that matters as much as the schedule. Houston closes with four games against a 95 loss Athletics team that's missing basically its entire core lineup and rotation to injury. Texas closes on the road in Minnesota after tonight's home finale against the Mets.

Momentum has shifted back and forth this week. Houston is riding production from Yordan Alvarez, who's still in a distant chase for the Triple Crown. Texas has dropped three straight, been held to four hits or fewer multiple times, and Corey Seager is ice cold during the skid (0-13). The Rangers got some help last night after Houston failed to win despite an extra inning lead in Seattle.

Texas holds the pitching advantage on paper, but winning every game left won’t be enough if the Astros can do the same. Matchup and momentum both lean Houston's way heading into the final weekend of the regular season. The betting value is on the Rangers to pull off the division win. It’s now or never for the teams from Texas.

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🏈 Finding Value for Packers v Falcons TNF Matchup

Atlanta owns the worst scoring offense in football with just 8 points per game so far, but the strange part is the run game sort of works. The Falcons rank top ten in both rushing yards and yards per carry, with Bijan Robinson commanding the league's highest target share among running backs out of pure necessity. Green Bay's run defense looks stout on paper, allowing under 3 yards per carry, but they've already given up three rushing touchdowns this season. Atlanta will have a chance to finish drives on the ground if they can just get the ball down field.

Michael Penix Jr. makes his season debut tonight, which is a threat to a Packers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in red zone touchdown rate allowed. Penix should bolster the Atlanta offense. Before his injury last season he threw 9 touchdowns, 3 picks, and racked up nearly 2,000 passing yards at over a 60% completion rate. The counter is Atlanta's own issues up front and a Packers pass rush that's racked up seven sacks through two games.

On the other side, Green Bay's passing game should feast. Atlanta just lost top cornerback A.J. Terrell to injured reserve, and the Falcons already rank near the bottom of the league in explosive plays allowed with zero interceptions on the year. Christian Watson has been Love's clear go to option, and Atlanta's heavy use of single high safety looks sets up favorably for him. Tucker Kraft benefits from that same defensive tendency underneath.

🔥 Bijan Robinson Over 122.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards

This is the smartest way to play Atlanta's offense tonight. Pure rushing yardage is a tough ask against this front, but Robinson's receiving work as a checkdown outlet pushes his projection well above this number, and he's cleared it in six of his last ten games. Last time against the Packers he finished with 172 combined yards and broke 150 on seven different occasions last season.

🔥 Christian Watson Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

Christian Watson is drawing heavy target volume already, and with Atlanta's top corner out and Love expected to get the ball out quickly under pressure, this profiles as exactly the kind of night Watson's numbers keep climbing. He racked up 147 yards in Week 1 and even half that much does enough for us tonight.

 🌲 The Pine Line

⚾️ Aaron Boone predicted 39 home runs for Ben Rice this season. Maybe next time Boone won’t underestimate him.

🤯 One of the biggest upsets of the year. A late goal just took down the number one team in the country.

🏆️ It’s their trophy to lose. Minnesota enters the playoffs as heavy title favorites.

🔒️ It’s official, lock him down for the season. The Giants are in the market for a short term quarterback.

🏈 Who Finds the Endzone on TNF?

Bijan Robinson is technically the most likely scorer in this game, but you're paying a heavy price for a player stuck on an offense that has not reached the redzone a single time this season.

Christian Watson is the better bet, and it's not close once you look at the usage. He's already scored three touchdowns through two games, and that's backed by big volume, ranking sixth in the league in total targets. He's converted both of his targets inside the five yard line into touchdowns and when Green Bay gets close, he's the guy Jordan Love looks for first.

Atlanta's best cornerback is out for the season, gutting a secondary that's already allowing nearly 240 passing yards and three touchdowns per game through the air. Green Bay is favored at home with a total near 44.5, and as the team carrying the higher implied scoring total, Watson stands to benefit the most from any extra possessions.

A couple of alternatives are worth mentioning. Tucker Kraft plays nearly every offensive snap and scored six times in eight games last season, but he hasn't found the end zone yet this year and doesn't have a red zone target to his name. He’s due for some positive regression. Matthew Golden has solid volume too, but zero touchdowns and just one red zone look all season.

Watson checks every box: volume, a proven red zone role, a defense missing its top corner, and a price that still pays plus money. All factors combined make this one of the best endzone looks tonight.

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