Under coach Mauricio Pochettino, the USMNT finished atop Group D with six points, tying a team record by scoring seven goals across their three group stage matches.

The run started with an inspiring 4-1 victory over Paraguay, followed by a clean 2-0 shutout of Australia that clinched advancement with a game to spare. Pochettino used that security to rotate heavily against Türkiye, fielding nine changes to the starting lineup.

The experimental side actually dominated that match with 52.6% possession, and 18 shots to Türkiye's nine, but conceded a 98th-minute goal to take their only loss of the group stage. The result was cosmetic and not a cause for concern. The first team is healthy, rested, and has no significant injury concerns heading into Sunday.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is making history just by being here. Their 1-1-1 group stage record featured a draw with Canada, a 4-1 loss to Switzerland, and a 3-1 win over Qatar. That was enough to advance as one of the best third-place finishers, marking the first time in the nation's history they've reached the knockout round. Eighteen-year-old Kerim Alajbegovic also became the youngest World Cup scorer in Bosnian history.

The U.S. carries an implied win probability of roughly 80% based on the -500 odds to qualify. Bosnia has conceded 1.8 goals per game against top-20 teams over their last ten matches, and they struggle structurally when chasing games.

The U.S. -1.5 spread at +125 is worth a look. The USA roster is at full strength, and they will be motivated to secure an emphatic win in front of a home crowd.

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⚽️ World Cup Knockout Round Action Continues

The USA isn’t the only exciting game on over the next couple days. We’ve already seen a couple upsets and could have more on the horizon.

Belgium vs. Senegal

Belgium topped Group G with five points, but the path there raised real questions. They needed an Egyptian own goal to avoid a shutout in their opener, drew a blank against Iran's low block in match two, then exploded for five goals against New Zealand to close the group.

That final performance of 35 shots and 54.5% possession was impressive, but New Zealand isn't the measuring stick. The inability to break down disciplined, defensively-minded opposition has been Belgium's recurring problem, and Senegal is considerably more athletic and tactically organized than either Egypt or Iran.

Senegal's route was messier. Two early losses to France and Norway left them needing a result, and they delivered with a 5-0 win over Iraq with 69% possession, 28 shots, and a 90% pass completion rate. Pape Gueye led the way with two goals and an assist. The defensive numbers across the full group stage are the concern, having conceded six goals in three matches.

The market has Belgium slightly favored to advance but I’m leaning towards Senegal to advance at +135. The smarter play is probably Senegal on the draw no bet so that you get your stake back if it finishes level after 90 minutes.

Portugal vs. Croatia (Thursday)

Portugal enters this match as the -130 favorite and the statistical favorite on virtually every metric, but Croatia has been one of the tournament's most efficient sides. Their 2-1 win over Ghana came from just four shots on target, with Vlašić delivering the winner in the 83rd minute off a Modrić assist.

This matchup has under written all over it. Croatia's last two results were 1-0 and 2-1. Portugal has been creating chances without converting at a high rate, and in a knockout format both teams will prioritize defensive structure. Under 2.5 goals is the play.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏀 How many decisions has it been for LeBron? It’s time to add one more to the list.

⚽️ Mbappé is chasing history this summer. He’s running out of World Cup records to break.

📽️ Netflix is hosting the Field of Dreams game this year. There’s one guest they’re desperately trying to land.

🏈 Legally, everything is sorted with the QB out of Indiana. Now we’ll see if anyone will actually draft him.

🎾 Wimbledon witnessed a dramatic return to the court after 4 years. We got one heck of a match out of it too.

⚾️ Batters to Watch on Wednesday Night

A full slate of baseball games today present a couple opportunities to bet on the long ball.

👉️ Heriberto Hernández Player Prop

Coors Field carries the highest overall offensive park factor in baseball at 112, with a runs factor of 125, and there is no better venue in the sport to hunt for power. The Marlins as a whole have been held homerless in nearly 40 collective at-bats against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, so this isn't a matchup-driven play, but Hernández is a different case.

He's hitting .500 against Freeland in eight career at-bats with a .441 wOBA.. The power production hasn't materialized against him yet, but Hernández has homered in 20% of his last 20 games and is a stronger road power threat than at home. Against a pitcher he's consistently squared up, in the best hitting ballpark in baseball, the conditions are aligned for him to break through today.

👉️ Jac Caglianone Player Prop

Caglianone has faced McClanahan three times in his career and homered twice, producing a .667 average, and a 2.667 slugging percentage, against one of the better left-handed starters in the league. The sample size is small, but the quality of contact makes it impossible to ignore.

Kauffman Stadium suppresses home runs at a park factor of 84, so the environment works against this play. Caglianone has also been in a bit of a slump, getting on base just twice in his last 5 games. Despite that, his head to head history here is strong and he is due for a big offensive night.

🎯 Don't Guess, Ask Jaxon

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