Before we touch on TNF, let’s dig into tonight’s NBA matchup between the Pistons and the Bulls.

Detroit's seven-game win streak is impressive on the surface, but if you watched Sunday's overtime escape against Washington, you saw exactly where this thing is headed. Cade Cunningham dropped 46 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists, but he needed 45 shots to get there and was playing on what reports described as "dead legs and a sore tailbone." That's not sustainable basketball.

The injury situation in Detroit is dire. Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, Marcus Sasser, Jaden Ivey, and Ausar Thompson are all out. Jalen Duren and Cunningham himself are day-to-day. Caris LeVert is questionable. The guys who are playing are being pushed past the breaking point, and while home court usually provides a lift, adrenaline only carries you so far when you just clawed through overtime with a skeleton crew 48 hours earlier.

This setup means Chicago's rotation players should see expanded opportunities against a depleted opponent. Late-game fatigue swings should favor the Bulls' depth, especially guys with steady minutes who can exploit tired closeouts and slower rotations in the fourth quarter.

Tre Jones over 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-129)

With Stewart out and Duren day-to-day, Detroit's frontcourt is compromised, and Jones can exploit extra rebound opportunities in a faster, contested game. His recent form supports it, averaging 20.2 combined points and rebounds over his last five games, and Jones has hit the over in all four available road samples this season

Josh Giddey Over 29.5 Points+Assists (-128)

There's a critical caveat: Giddey is listed day-to-day, so this is only actionable if he's cleared to play. If he's active, this becomes a priority. Giddey is Chicago's primary playmaker, and in a tight game against a depleted opponent, he's going to handle heavy possessions and rack up stats. He's averaging 33.6 combined points and assists over his last five games, well over the 29.5 line, and he hit 30 exactly in their season opener against the Pistons.

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❄️ November Prime Time in Foxborough

The Patriots and Jets clash tomorrow in what the numbers suggest might be the most lopsided matchup of Week 11. We're looking at an 8-2 New England squad hosting a struggling 2-7 Jets team, and the gap between these two is even wider than the records indicate.

The Patriots are operating at a completely different level than New York. Their offense ranks 10th in the league by DVOA while the Jets limp in at 29th. The Patriots have built one of the NFL's most explosive passing attacks, ranking 2nd in both completion percentage at 71.53% and yards per attempt at 8.91, while the Jets' passing game is essentially broken, managing just 6.15 yards per attempt (28th).

The Jets actually have something going for them on offense. They're 4th in the NFL in yards per carry at 5.02. Unfortunately for them, they're running straight into New England's brick wall. The Patriots boast the league's best run defense, having allowed only 792 rushing yards all season and surrendering just 3.77 yards per carry.

What this means for the game script is pretty straightforward. The forecast for Foxborough suggests a classic late-season Northeast slugfest with low temperatures and the possibility of rain and snow flurries. Wind and precipitation will lead to fewer downfield attempts, lower completion percentages, and increased turnovers. In all likelihood, these teams will be forced to rely on their running game.

When the Patriots shut down the Jets' ground game, and the numbers suggest they absolutely will, New York will be forced to win through the air with Justin Fields. That's a major problem. Fields ranks 31st in passing EPA this season, and he's working behind an offensive line that's dead last in the league in sack rate allowed at 13.71%.

The betting line has settled at Patriots -11.5, and the analytics support the home team. New England has won seven straight games and covered the spread in six of those seven. Their point differential of +73 ranks 6th in the NFL, while the Jets sit at -46. That 119-point gap tells you everything about the quality difference between these teams.

TNF Prediction: New England -11.5 (-110)

Drake Maye Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)

Maye is already one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league ranking 6th in rushing yards and 1st in total carries among all quarterbacks this season. The kid isn't afraid to tuck it and run. What makes this prop even more attractive is his recent pattern. Maye has gone over 5.5 attempts in every single one of his last five games, averaging nearly eight per game. Over the full season, he's cleared this number in 70% of his appearances at 6.6 attempts per game.

The Jets' defense ranks 20th against quarterback scrambles, so they're not exactly elite at keeping mobile QBs in the pocket. When you factor in that New England will likely lean heavily on the ground game anyway, Maye's designed runs and scrambles become a natural extension of that approach. He ranks 3rd in the league in quarterback EPA per play partly because of his ability to create with his legs when plays break down.

Stefon Diggs Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

While Diggs remains Maye's primary target and favorite red zone option, the recent trends tell a different story than his season average of 55.4 yards per game. Over his last five games, Diggs has stayed under this number in four of them, averaging just 39 yards during that span. At home this season, he's hit the under in 60% of games with an average of 46.6 yards.

When the Patriots get ahead early, they'll shift to clock management and ball control. That means fewer overall pass attempts and a greater emphasis on the running game. This is emphasized even more with the cold, windy weather.

Diggs will still get his targets, but the volume just won't be there for him to rack up big yardage totals. The Jets rank 14th against wide receivers, which is respectable enough to keep a lid on things when combined with reduced passing volume. This looks like a game where Diggs might catch a touchdown but stays under his yardage prop.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏆️ After the carnage of Week 10, only 5% remain. Every week is a minefield now.

💀 From Coach of the Year to out the door. The Giants hit the reset button again.

🏀 From NBA Finals to fired in record time. The dumbest trade in NBA history finally caught up to him.

⚾️ It’s hard to win Manager of the Year once. The rarest repeat in baseball just happened.

🏒 The NHL is getting nervous. Milan’s Olympic arena is not looking very Olympic.

📈 Thursday Night’s Rising TD Threat

The Patriots' rushing attack should dominate the line of scrimmage tomorrow, and that creates multiple pathways to capitalize on New England scoring touchdowns on the ground.

TreVeyon Henderson Anytime Touchdown (-132)

The Patriots' backfield situation creates a really interesting opportunity for TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson has punched in three rushing touchdowns over ten games this season while averaging just over eight carries per game. That average is up to 12.7 per game over his last three.

If Rhamondre Stevenson is limited or sits out entirely, Henderson immediately becomes the primary ball carrier. The Jets rank 21st in defense against running backs, so it’s a great opportunity for the young back. The volume bump with Stevenson's availability in question creates genuine leverage and at -132, the juice isn't killing us.

Drake Maye Anytime Touchdown (+195)

Here's a secondary play with real upside. Maye has scored twice on the ground this season across ten games, and while that twenty percent hit rate isn't massive, he's consistently used in short-yardage situations with sixty-six rushing attempts on the year.

In the type of clock-control, run-first game we're expecting, those short-yardage quarterback sneaks and designed runs near the goal line become more frequent. The Jets rank 9th in defense against quarterback scoring, which isn't lockdown territory. This isn't a heavy-unit play, but it's excellent value in a game where New England should control the pace and create multiple redzone chances.

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