UFC 324 marks a historic shift as the promotion moves its first major event to Paramount+, opening up the potential audience to far more viewers than the traditional pay-per-view model.

The main event features an Interim Lightweight Championship bout between veteran Justin Gaethje and British star Paddy Pimblett. The co-main showcases former champion Sean O'Malley looking to snap a two-fight skid against powerhouse Song Yadong. And the featherweight division delivers a clash between technical striker Arnold Allen and explosive finisher Jean Silva.

Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva Over 2.5 Rounds (-130)

Jean Silva is a natural finisher with an average fight time of just 7:42. He's rarely seen the final bell, landing 5.83 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy. But Arnold Allen is incredibly durable and has never been finished in his professional career. Allen's style is built on negation. He slows fights down, uses his jab to reset distance, and clinches when necessary. He lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute with elite 62% striking defense.

Silva may start fast, but Allen's veteran composure likely drags this into the deep waters of the third round. Allen excels at counter-striking when opponents overextend, and Silva's willingness to take one to give one (55% striking defense) plays directly into that strength. Allen has faced the absolute best in the world, including Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, and while he lost those decisions, he pushed both fighters to their limits.

Sean O'Malley Moneyline (-200)

O'Malley enters this bout ranked 3rd in the bantamweight division, looking to snap a two-fight skid after back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili. Song Yadong is primarily a striker, which plays directly into O'Malley's strengths. Standing 5'11" with a 72-inch reach, O'Malley will hold a three-inch height advantage and a five-inch reach advantage over the 5'8" Song.

O'Malley's game is built on volume and precision. He absorbs only 3.48 significant strikes per minute, a testament to his elite movement. Song brings legitimate one-punch knockout power and recently defeated former double-champion Henry Cejudo via technical decision, but O'Malley's ability to evade and control distance should allow him to outpoint Song over three rounds.

Paddy Pimblett by Finish (-125)

All five of Justin Gaethje's career losses have come before the bell: three knockouts and two submissions. Pimblett is a finishing machine with 17 of his 23 wins coming via stoppage. Gaethje is 37 years old and coming off a heart-wrenching last-second knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300. While he bounced back with a decision over Rafael Fiziev, his coach Trevor Wittman has hinted Gaethje may retire if he loses this bout.

Pimblett is a 2nd-degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with 10 career submission wins. He's currently on a seven-fight UFC win streak and recently submitted King Green and knocked out Michael Chandler. Gaethje lands 6.59 significant strikes per minute with devastating power, but he averages zero takedowns per 15 minutes and relies on his 68% takedown defense to keep fights standing. Once it hits the mat, Pimblett is the far superior grappler.

🎲 New: Instant Parlay Generator

Stop building parlays from scratch. We'll do it for you.

One click on the homepage generates a complete parlay with:

• Smart leg selections based on current matchups

• Clear reasoning for every pick

• Direct betting links to lock it in before lines move

Run it as-is or tweak the legs. No prompting required. No conversation needed. Just instant action when you want a play but don't want to spend the time researching it.

🏒 NHL Props Backed by Data

The 100% sheet identifies players who have cleared specific prop lines in 100% of their recent games. Here are four props where the consistency is backed by matchup data and usage patterns.

Owen Tippett Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+122)

Tippett has recorded 34 total shots over his last 10 games. He's cleared this 2.5 line in 8 of those 10 games and 75% of his last 20. He's recorded as many as 5 SOG in two recent contests, against Pittsburgh and Calgary, showing a high ceiling when he gets heavy offensive zone time.

The matchup against Utah is particularly enticing. Utah's defensive structure allows high shot volume from the perimeter and circles where Tippett excels with his wrist shot. Tippett's role on the power play and as a primary transition threat ensures he sees high-quality looks.

At plus-money, this is excellent value for a player averaging well above the line.

Mikhail Sergachev Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-130)

Sergachev has cleared this line in six straight games and 8 of his last 10, averaging 2.0 shots per game. His season-long average of 2.1 shots provides a healthy cushion and his performance at home is even more dominant, cashing in 87% of home games and averaging 2.61 shots per game.

The Philadelphia Flyers present a favorable matchup for high-volume shooting defensemen. Philadelphia has allowed an average of 7.02 shots on goal per game specifically to opposing defensemen this season. Sergachev's role as a primary puck-mover and power-play quarterback aligns perfectly with this defensive vulnerability.

Historically, Sergachev has found success against Philadelphia. In his last two meetings with the Flyers, he's hit the over both times. The Flyers are dealing with several key absences, weakening their ability to clear the front of the net and block shots and potentially leading to more sustained offensive zone pressure for Utah.

Adam Pelech Over 1.5 Blocks (-118)

Pelech has cleared this line in each of his last five games and in 9 of his last 10 outings. His current mean of 2.6 blocks per game over the last 10 games provides a massive cushion against a line set at just 1.5. 

In his lone matchup against Seattle earlier this season, Pelech was incredibly active, recording 4 blocks. The Islanders are dealing with significant absences in their forward group, with Bo Horvat out and Kyle Palmieri on IR. Pelech, as a cornerstone of their defensive unit, will likely see heavy minutes against Seattle's top lines.

Pelech has hit the over in 11 of his last 15 games and has a mean of 2.6 blocks over his last 10 games. The consistency and matchup history make this one of the best props on the board.

Brent Burns Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+132)

Burns has been incredibly consistent from the blue line. Over his last 10 games, he's recorded 32 shots on goal and cleared this 2.5 line in each of his last five games, averaging 4.0 shots during that stretch.

The matchup against Anaheim is statistically one of the best a shooter can ask for. In his most recent game against Anaheim this season, Burns recorded 3 shots. Looking back at the 2024-2025 season, he averaged 4.5 shots across two matchups against the Ducks.

Anaheim is dealing with a depleted roster and the lack of veteran defensive presence often leads to more sustained zone time for opponents and more shooting lanes for defensemen. Burns is averaging 19:22 of time on ice over his last 10 games, and with Anaheim missing their primary netminder and several key penalty killers, Colorado is expected to control the pace.

Consider his points prop at plus odds as well. 

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏀 The Warriors won big on Monday, but lost big for the rest of the season. Not the desired outcome on a routine play.

🏎️ The newest team on the grid went big with their reveal. The German manufacturer’s entry into Formula One is now official.

⚽️ A freezing night in Norway just produced on one of soccer’s biggest upsets. The Norwegian underdogs did something spectacular.

🛷 “Cool Runnings” could be due for a sequel. The feel-good story has turned into legit competition.

👑 The superstar blueprint is changing in a subtle way. Position matters less than it used to for elite players. 

🏒 How to Bet NHL Power Play Trends

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

Hockey officials are continuing to swallow their whistles and keep penalty boxes vacant.  Since the league began charting power play opportunities in 1963, last season marked the fewest per game on record (2.71).  

This season hasn’t changed things much.  NHL games are averaging 2.96 power play opportunities per game.

How Teams are Adjusting

What isn’t happening is any big change with the man advantage.  Teams are converting at a 20.78% clip, which is only slightly above average.  In other words, scoring has to be done the hard way.

Betting Angle

Power plays remain infrequent, but they are higher now than last season. Does this trend mean we, as bettors, should bet more unders, or is the slight uptick enough to warrant betting overs? Using Jaxon’s AI tool, here are some bets on totals for Wednesday’s slate that I like:

Red Wings at Maple Leafs O6.5 Goals (+105)

Toronto may not need to draw too many penalties to light the lamp frequently.  The Red Wings have allowed the 12th-most goals per 60 minutes on the penalty kill this season.  Assuming William Nylander doesn’t play because of a groin injury, Auston Matthews’ 25 goals ranks in the top ten in the NHL and the offensive depth is more than reliable.  

Detroit’s offense should also be able to do its fair share.  Lucas Raymond has put up 53 points, Alex DeBrincat has 52, and both rank in the top 25 in the league.  Toronto's defense could also be susceptible, ranking 26th in goals allowed (3.35 per game) and last in shots allowed per game (31.51). At plus-money, there's excellent value in expecting a high-scoring matchup.

Capitals at Canucks O5.5 Goals (-145)

Good grief, the Vancouver Canucks are struggling.

During their 11-game losing streak, Vancouver allowed at least three goals in nine of those contests.  If Washington does gain an extra skater, it’s only more fuel for a high-scoring game.

The Caps have also found an offensive rhythm. Tom Wilson leads the team with 22 goals and 42 points. It's not just Alex Ovechkin getting all the attention—Wilson's contributions should leave an already beleaguered defense guessing.

If Vancouver can shoot at volume thanks to skaters like Elias Pettersson, it may be their only way to end the losing skid. Both teams have reason to be more aggressive offensively, so bet the over.

Flyers at Mammoth O5.5 Goals (-134)

Goaltending in Philadelphia may be the biggest reason why there should be at least six goals.  Starter Dan Vladar was placed on injured reserve but could return for this game.  If he doesn’t, their backup goalies have a rough save percentage of approximately .860.

Utah has found an offensive rhythm at home, having won five of its last six and having scored six goals on two occasions.  Neither power play unit has been stellar, but for a 5.5-goal mark, it may not matter.

Key Takeaway

Three games, three overs. Yes, the number of power plays should matter when analyzing totals, but any uptick, no matter how small, might mean the market hasn't caught up just yet. Enjoy the goals!

Connect With Us!

Do you have a product idea or feature request? Did you cash a big parlay with the 100 Sheet? Are you wondering how to get the most out of Jaxon?

You can reach out to us on X @PineSports_AI or you can join the Discord server to leverage even more tools from Pine Sports.