Week 1 always feels like stepping into the unknown. Rosters are fresh, schemes are new, and every bettor is trying to figure out which offseason narratives will actually show up on the field. But if you look back at last season, the opening slate delivered something we haven’t seen in nearly a decade: more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns in Week 1.

This wasn’t normal. We have nine years of data and the 2024–25 season stands alone with the ground game dominating right out of the gate. While running backs were cashing tickets, anyone leaning heavy on quarterback or receiver props was left disappointed.

Of course, that trend didn’t last forever, the passing game heated up as the season went on, and by midyear we were back to seeing QBs and WRs rack up numbers. But that early surge of rushing production stood out, holding up as the second-best rushing week of the entire season.

Rushing touchdowns tend to be more stable week-to-week, while passing scores fluctuate more depending on matchups, weather, and game flow. That consistency matters for bettors, especially when looking at rushing props in the opening weeks. If Week 1 trends like last year, which is already looking like the case after all 5 touchdowns scored last night were on the ground, leaning toward running backs might offer the safer floor.

🤖 Jaxon – The Smarter Way to Bet

Tired of guessing? Just ask Jaxon.

Jaxon crunches millions of data points in seconds, finds value the sportsbooks don’t want you to see, and serves it up without the bias or gut-feel guesses.

🎯 Player Props → built from matchup data, performance history, and line shopping
💎 Plus EV Finder → spots bets where the math is on your side
📰 News & Injuries → all the updates that actually move lines
🏈 Survivor Pool Optimization → map out the perfect strategy week by week

Whether you’re grinding player props, hunting +EV, or asking quick questions like “How does Mahomes perform as a road underdog?”, Jaxon has you covered.

It’s simple. It’s powerful. And your first questions are free.

🏈 Sunday Kickoff Player Props

The wait’s over. Week 1 is finally here, and I’ve been digging in with Jaxon to find some of the best edges on the board. Between rushing attempts, reception props, and a few juicy TD spots, here are a few plays that stand out for Sunday.

Alvin Kamara (Saints) – Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (+105)

Jaxon’s Take: Saints’ QB situation is shaky (arguably worst in the league). New HC Kellen Moore loves the run and the Saints projected to climb from 21st to top-15 in rush attempts. Kamara is expected to log >50% of team’s rush yards, with projections near 1,000+ yards.

My Take: This looks like a smash spot early in the year. Moore will lean on Kamara to keep things steady, especially until the QB play drastically changes.

Evan Engram (Broncos) – Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)

Jaxon’s Take: The numbers make this one pretty straightforward. Engram has gone over 3.5 catches in nearly 90% of his games the past two seasons, averaging more than 5 receptions a game. He’s lined up as Denver’s big slot, projected as their No. 2 target, and at home he’s been automatic on this line. The model leans strongly to the over.

My Take: Feels like Engram’s basically a wide receiver in this offense, and the QB clearly trusts him as a go-to safety valve. Four catches is nothing for a guy who lives on short and easy targets. Unless the Broncos completely implode, I don’t see how he doesn’t clear this.

Davante Adams (Rams) – Over 4.5 Receptions (-145)

Jaxon’s Take: Adams has cleared 4.5 catches in nearly 80% of games over his last 20, averaging more than 6 receptions in that span. At home he’s been even stronger, and in his last meeting with Houston he hauled in 7. The numbers all point toward the over once again.

My Take: It’s Davante Adams. Four or five catches is his floor most weeks. He’s still the guy Stafford looks for when things break down, and against Houston I’d be shocked if he isn’t fed early and often. This feels like one of the safer overs on the board.

🌲The Pine Line

📈 It’s the hope that kills you. Hope-O-Meter shows which NFL fans are lying to themselves.

🧀 Green Bay bought the warranty, right? Their shiny new $188M toy is already “limited”.

👤 Brady & Belichick cast a long shadow. Future QBs and coaches will literally play in the shadows of Brady & Belichick.

🙏 Amari Cooper calls it a career. The 5-time Pro Bowler retires at 31, finishing with 10,000+ yards and 64 TDs.

🎉 Star-studded U.S. Hockey HOF class announced. NHL Champions & Olympic Champions will be honored Dec. 10 in St. Paul.

😂 EA Sports… not in the game. Drama killed its planned college hoops title, leaving the series on the bench.

👑 Air + Mamba card sets record. Their dual-signed Upper Deck card shattered record sale. 

📊 Sunday’s Best Game Bets

Player props are fun, but sometimes the sharpest edges come from picking sides and totals. Week 1 is full of mispriced lines, and Jaxon’s data is pointing to a few spots where the numbers don’t match the market. 

Denver Broncos -8.5 vs. TEN (-113)

The Broncos look well-positioned to cover -8.5. Last season they led the NFL with 12 ATS wins, and all six home victories came by more than eight points. Tennessee finished dead last at 2-15 ATS, routinely failing to meet expectations.

This matchup highlights that gap. Rookie QB Cam Ward is making his NFL debut on the road against a Denver defense that led the league in sacks, QB hits, and finished second in pressure rate. With Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper (24 combined sacks) returning and Patrick Surtain II locking down Calvin Ridley, Tennessee’s offense is in a tough spot. 

Denver’s offense has more upside this year, too. Bo Nix takes over with new weapons in Evan Engram and J.K. Dobbins, giving them the balance to capitalize once their defense sets the tone. Put it together, and the Broncos have both the historical ATS edge and the matchup advantage to cover comfortably.

Bucs @ Falcons Total Score Over 46.5 (-122)

The Bucs and Falcons combined for 66 and 57 points in their two meetings last season, and the Week 1 total of 46.5 looks light by comparison. Tampa was one of the league’s best ‘Over’ teams in 2024, clearing the number in 12 of 18 games (66%).

Even with Offensive-line injuries—Atlanta losing RT Kaleb McGary and Tampa without LT Tristan Wirfs—those weaknesses can actually create scoring chances via sacks, turnovers, and short fields.

Atlanta hands the keys to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. which points toward a more aggressive approach than we’ve seen from the Falcons in past openers. Add in Baker Mayfield’s chemistry with Mike Evans and the Bucs’ ability to generate explosive plays, and this game has all the ingredients for another high-scoring NFC South clash. The Over is the play.

Steelers @ Jets Total Score Under 38.5 (-108)

The Steelers and Jets open with a total of just 38.5, and it’s set that low for a reason. Pittsburgh’s offense could sputter early with Aaron Rodgers adjusting to a new team at age 41, while the Jets plan to lean on a run-heavy, clock-draining approach under Justin Fields. Oddsmakers clearly expect both defenses to control the game.

With the Jets’ September struggles (6-20 SU since 2017) and limited offensive upside, plus Pittsburgh’s likely “clunky” start, this shapes up as one of Week 1’s ugliest matchups. The Under is the play.

🔥 Sunday End Zone Specials

Touchdowns are what we live for on Sundays, and a good Anytime TD ticket makes them even sweeter. Whether it’s a superstar wideout, a red-zone tight end, or a bell-cow back, these are the players I’m backing to find the endzone in Week 1.

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) 

Ja’Marr Chase feels like a near-lock to score in Week 1. He’s fresh off a monster 17-TD season where he found the end zone in 11 of 17 games, including both matchups against Cleveland. The Browns’ defense hasn’t had an answer for elite WRs, giving up 20 scores to the position last year, and Burrow-to-Chase remains the NFL’s most dangerous connection.

With this game carrying one of the week’s highest totals (47.5) and Chase’s Anytime TD odds sitting around -125 to -155, the market agrees. 

David Njoku (Browns) 

David Njoku is a live TD threat in Week 1 against the Bengals. His chemistry with Joe Flacco is proven—four touchdowns in just five games together—and Flacco loves leaning on tight ends in the red zone. Add in Njoku’s size and athleticism, and he’s always one play away from spiking the ball.

The matchup lines up perfectly too. Cincinnati gave up the most catches and second-most touchdowns to tight ends last season, and Njoku has already burned them with big games in back-to-back meetings. With this game projected to be high-scoring (47.5 total), Njoku’s +228 anytime TD odds look like sneaky value.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) 

Bijan Robinson looks primed to find the end zone in Week 1. He scored six touchdowns over his final three games last season, racked up 15 total on the year, and now takes on a full bell-cow role. 

Inside the 20, the Falcons love him. He ranked top-10 in red zone carries and the Bucs’ defense has struggled to contain backs on the ground and through the air. Sportsbooks have him at -190 to score anytime, and given his role and momentum, it feels more like “when” than “if.”

Looking to fill out a full TD lotto ticket? Jaxon’s got a list loaded with sneaky scorers. Check the chat below. 👇️ 

Week 1 always delivers surprises…

…that’s half the fun! Come ride it out with us in Discord and see where the edges take us!