Arbitrage betting has long been viewed as the purest form of strategy-driven wagering. It’s not about luck or gut instinct, it’s about exploiting market inefficiencies through math, timing, and precision. With the addition of arbitrage sheets available on Pine, bettors can take this concept to the next level.

Understanding Arbitrage Betting

At its core, arbitrage betting is an investment method built around one simple idea: if different sportsbooks disagree on the odds of an event, there may be an opportunity to profit no matter who wins.

The strategy involves placing proportional bets on every possible outcome across multiple sportsbooks. When the total implied probability of all outcomes adds up to less than 100%, a guaranteed profit exists.

For example, if a hockey game has Team A favored at -122 on one book and Team B at +140 on another, the combined probabilities leave a small profit window. By allocating your stakes correctly between both sides, you can lock in a return regardless of the result.

These windows rarely last, and this isn’t for the casual bettor. Bookmakers constantly update lines to close discrepancies, and the most successful arbitrage bettors rely on automated tools. The profit margins per opportunity are slim, often between one and five percent, so it takes serious capital, and a long term vision, to make it worthwhile.

Arbitrage Betting with Pine

On Pine you can view active arbitrage opportunities across all the major sportsbooks, and even including Kalshi prediction markets. There are a handful of NFL opportunities this week that can rack up over a 10% ROI if correctly handled.

The first, and biggest, of Week 16 is currently Saquon Barkley Over/Under 99.5 Rushing Yards. You can get the Under on Kalshi and the Over on BetRivers to ultimate guarantee a little over a 3% profit. Again, it doesn’t matter if he hits or not. Follow the dollar amounts at the odds shown above to secure your profit regardless of the outcome.

A second option this week is for the Jaguars to have Over or Under 2.5 Touchdowns. You can take the Under on FanDuel, the Over on BetRivers, and net yourself nearly a 2% return on your investment. In general, a 10% annual gain is considered strong in financial investments. With Pine, you can knock out a 5% return on just these two plays this weekend.

At the time of writing this, there are 13 plays available on the Pine Arb sheet with a 2% or greater profit margin. There are another 40+ plays available with lower margins of that depending on how deep you want to go with it.

🤖 Jaxon Just Got Smarter

Jaxon taps into advanced analytics to break down every NFL or NBA matchup with even greater precision.

Your gut < basic trends < advanced analytics.

It's a data-driven league, but you don't need a data science degree to get the analysis pro handicappers rely on.

📈 Team Stats → Efficiency metrics and situational data
👤 Player Stats → Usage and opportunity info
💰️ Value Stats → Spot advanced stat mismatches

Here is one example of a player shooting analysis that you can do with the new Jaxon updates!

🏈 Betting Week 16 Hit Streaks

The NFL betting landscape offers countless opportunities each week, but finding the right props requires digging into the numbers behind each play. This week, we're looking at the 100% Sheet on Pine Sports to find player props that stand out based on statistical trends and matchup dynamics.

Keon Coleman Over 1.5 Receptions (-110)

Keon Coleman has cleared this number in every single game he's played this year. He has a perfect 11-for-11 record hitting the over, with an average of 3.27 receptions during that stretch. Even in road environments where some receivers struggle, Coleman has posted a flawless 5-for-5 record with a 2.8 reception average. His streak even extends into last season, going back 13 consecutive games. 

His volume supports this consistency. Coleman sees 5 targets per game, which ranks 59th among wide receivers, and converts those opportunities at a strong 65.45% catch rate. His 14% target share places him 50th league-wide. All of these numbers are visible on Pine's prop sheet (on Desktop) by just clicking his receptions prop and scrolling down to the matchup and efficiency stats below his hit chart. With a 65.45% catch rate, Coleman would only need three targets to have a good probability of securing two catches based purely on statistical likelihood.

The elephant in the room is the Cleveland Browns defense. They rank first in the league at limiting receptions to opposing wide receivers. The Browns bring the fourth-ranked Defense DVOA at -10.9%, rank second in total receptions allowed at just 17.57 per game, and sit fifth in passing yards allowed. Their pass rush is ferocious with 47 sacks and a 32.05% pressure rate.

However, that dominant pass rush might actually work in Coleman's favor. When quarterbacks face consistent pressure, they rely on quick-hitting routes and high-percentage throws. Coleman fits that profile perfectly. The line of 1.5 receptions is simply too low.

TreVeyon Henderson Over 72.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

Henderson represents a completely different profile from Coleman. He has absolutely demolished this 72.5 yard line over his last five games, hitting the over in all five contests while averaging 114.2 total yards during that stretch. His Week 15 performance against Buffalo stands out, racking up 161 total yards with 148 coming on the ground and 13 through the air. That game featured two touchdown runs exceeding 50 yards.

Henderson's full-season average sits at 70.3 yards per game across 14 contests, landing just under this 72.5 line, but Stevenson was originally the primary back early in the season. The real red flag appears in his road splits, where he's averaged only 56.5 yards in six games as the visitor and cleared this number just twice for a 33.33% hit rate.

Despite those road struggles, Henderson's efficiency metrics suggest he can hit this number with moderate volume. His 5.41 yards per carry ranks in the top 10 at his position, and his Rushing EPA ranks fourth among all running backs, meaning he consistently generates positive value when he touches the ball. He's averaging 10.21 carries and 2.93 targets per game on the season, but his recent usage has jumped to 15.2 carries over the last five weeks, indicating the Patriots are leaning on him more heavily. He converts 82.93% of his targets into catches, making those receiving yards a reliable component of hitting this over.

The Ravens rank 17th against opposing running backs in rushing plus receiving yards, placing them in the middle of the pack. They're allowing 111.07 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry, both ranking 15th in the league. Henderson doesn't need sustained excellence to clear 72.5 yards; one or two big plays can cover a substantial portion of this line.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏀 Just another record broken. Now is not the time to enjoy it. 

🙏 The NASCAR community was hit hard this week. A North Carolina plane crash leaves fans grieving. 

🎙️ Whatever you do, don’t say this at work. Especially if people could be listening on the radio. 

👑 Is the King focused on the job at hand? Seems like he’d rather be on the links than on the court. 

🏈 Puka had a career night on Thursday. Followed quickly by a social media meltdown. 

🐕️ Underdog Fantasy Picks for Week 16

by Ed Egros

One really cool feature of prop sheets from Pine Sports is the different options it provides no matter how you place your prop bets.  Whether you use more conventional sportsbooks or bet with PrizePicks and Underdog, Pine Sports makes it easy. Just head to the dropdown menu in the upper-right corner of the page, select your platform, and you’re set. For this week’s slate, I’m zeroing in on what’s available on Underdog.

A Winning Approach

If you’re new to Underdog or PrizePicks, Pick ’Em contests are essentially parlays: you select at least two player props, and every leg must hit to cash. One key rule to remember—you must include players from at least two different teams.

A savvy way to do this is by targeting the same game from opposite sides. That’s the approach here, as I’m looking at two games where Jaxon likes a prop from each team.

Eagles at Commanders

In this rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, the defending Super Bowl champions are roughly a touchdown favorite over their division rival.  Neither offense has put up the same numbers as last season, but one unit is clearly trending in the right direction.

Jalen Hurts Over 27.5 Rushing Yards

Context would certainly imply the Eagles are going to run more to control the clock.  There should be multiple “tush push” opportunities, and those rushing yards add up.  On top of that, the Commanders have struggled mightily against mobile quarterbacks.  As Jaxon pointed out, Washington ranks 27th in the league in yards allowed per carry.  Hurts may not have his number called a lot, but when he does, he should be able to turn those runs into chunk plays.  Facing a defense that also ranks 30th in missed tackle rate should also help his cause.

Marcus Mariota Over 0.5 Interceptions

Simply looking at the number of interceptions thrown over the last several games will not tell you the whole story.  Mariota’s bad throw rate of 17.2% ranks ninth among all qualifying quarterbacks this season.  Add to that an Eagles defense coming in ninth in pressure rate, and they should have the tools necessary to force Mariota into even more mistakes, including a turnover.

Raiders at Texans

The team in Sin City has been playing sinful football.  Now they’re facing arguably the best defense in the NFL with a surging offense as two-touchdown underdogs.  Here are two props that should make more money than a roll at the craps table:

Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions

The logic here mirrors the Mariota play. As a big underdog, Smith is likely to be throwing often in catch-up mode. Houston ranks second in defensive DVOA (-20.3%), while Smith’s passing EPA (-69.77) places him 47th among all quarterbacks this season. That combination makes this interception prop especially appealing.

Ka’imi Fairbairn Under 2.5 Field Goals

The Texans kicker has attempted almost as many field goals as anyone this season.  Betting the under has less to do with him and more to do with C.J. Stroud’s return to action.  While Houston’s red zone efficiency has been inconsistent, such plays deep in opponent territory tend to regress over time. With each game back, Stroud should get more comfortable, increasing the chances that drives end in touchdowns rather than field goal attempts—especially against a Raiders defense that has struggled to get stops.

Have you tried Plus Ev?

Now you have the ability to create your own filters on our Plus Ev sheet! Change the props, lines, odds, or EV Thresholds and watch the historical profit tracker change based on your settings! Whether you want to squeeze every last penny out of marginal EV spots, or wait for the massive edges, we have you covered.

👉️ Try Plus EV Bets on Pine