The first few weeks of the NFL are pure chaos. Underdogs win outright, “safe” favorites stumble, and survivor pool entries go up in smoke. If you thought the Bills game was a lock, you know exactly how fast things can flip.

That’s the reality of early-season football: small sample sizes, new systems, and surprise injuries make predicting outcomes harder than ever. Divisional games? Total minefields. Short rest or long travel? Easy recipe for an upset.

The trick is spotting where the cracks might show. Strong defenses vs. shaky offenses, banged-up offensive lines, or QBs who can’t protect the ball. Those are red flags.

Motivation matters too; teams embarrassed one week often bounce back big the next. Don’t overreact to one upset, just keep looking for the spots that give you a little more edge in the chaos.

🤖 Jaxon – Your Edge Against the Books

Tired of guessing? Just ask Jaxon.

Jaxon crunches millions of data points in seconds, finds the hidden value sportsbooks don’t want you to see, and delivers it straight to you.

🎯 Player Props → Discover the sharpest matchups before kickoff
💎 Plus EV Finder → Spot the bets where the math is on your side
📰 News & Injuries → Get the updates that actually move lines
🏈 Survivor Pool Optimization → Build the path that keeps you alive longest

Whether you’re chasing player props, hunting +EV, or want instant answers to questions like “How does Justin Herbert perform as a Road Favorite against other AFC West teams?”, Jaxon has you covered.

It’s simple. It’s powerful. And your first questions are free.

🏈 NFL Sunday Week 3 Player Props

Week 3 is loaded with player prop value, and a few names stand out with strong matchups and clear usage trends. These spots jump off the board as plays worth locking in.

Jonathan Taylor Over 90.5 Rushing Yards

Jaxon’s Take: Taylor is leading the league with 118 rushing yards per game on 21.5 carries. He’s hit this line in 4 of his last 5 (151-yard average) and gets a Titans defense ranked 28th vs RBs…the same unit he gashed for 218 yards last year.

My Take: Taylor looks unstoppable right now. He’s getting bellcow volume, breaking big runs [Watch], and facing a banged-up defense. Unless Indy falls way behind early, I’m confident he cruises past 90 here.

Puka Nacua Over 6.5 Receptions

Jaxon’s Take: Nacua has smashed this line in 5 straight games, averaging 8.6 catches. He’s #1 in the NFL at 9 receptions per game this season and gets elite usage at 10 targets a game. Against Philly last year, he hauled in 9 receptions. 

My Take: Puka doesn’t really go for long explosive plays, but the guy is a target magnet. Philly’s secondary is decent, but I don’t think it matters when you’re getting this kind of volume. I’m rolling with the over.

Travis Etienne Jr Over 52.5 Rushing Yards

Jaxon’s Take: Etienne ranks 2nd in the league with 214 rushing yards through two games and is averaging an elite 7.1 YPC. He’s hit the over in 100% of games this season, including 143 yards at home. Against a Texans defense ranked 24th vs RBs and dealing with key injuries, Jaxon projects him to clear 55.5 with room to spare.

My Take: I’m buying in. Etienne hasn’t always had big games against Houston, but he looks different this season…faster, more decisive, and clearly the centerpiece of Jacksonville’s ground game.

Harold Fannin Jr Over 32.5 Receiving Yards

Jaxon’s Take: Fannin has wasted no time making an impact with 14 targets and 111 yards through his first two games, averaging 55.5 yards per outing. He owns a 15% target share and already ranks as the TE10 in fantasy points per game. With steady usage and routes on nearly 60% of dropbacks, Jaxon projects him to beat this modest line.

My Take: I love how Cleveland is using him. He’s lining up in the slot, outside, even in the backfield. That Swiss Army knife role means he’s always on the field and always a threat. For a rookie already commanding this kind of volume, 36.5 feels too low.

 🌲 The Pine Line

📷️ Forget strapping on a GoPro. These new Oakley sunglasses are the camera and the coach.

🤔 The lines around Tom Brady’s new role aren’t so clear. Not everyone agrees on what it really is.

🍾 An era is ending in L.A. sports. Two icons announced their final chapters. 

🏀 Sleepers, breakouts, and busts. The NBA season is getting closer to tip-off.

👶 Stefon Diggs and Cardi B announce upcoming collab. Dont worry, It’s not dropping on Spotify.

💰 Week 3 Best Game Bets

Every week has that handful of games where the lines just feel a little off. Week 3 is no different. We’ve got a home underdog, a divisional favorite, and a total that looks primed to fly. These are the game bets I like best for Sunday’s slate.

Best Moneyline: New England Patriots (+110)

Drake Maye is coming off a 19-for-23 game with two touchdowns, while Rhamondre Stevenson added 142 total yards against Miami. The defense got after the quarterback with five sacks, and playing at home gives New England an extra boost.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been leaky, allowing 31 points or more in both games, and they are now without Alex Highsmith and Derrick Harmon. Rodgers can still make plays, but he threw two interceptions last week and the Steelers’ pass protection has not been reliable.

The moneyline looks like solid value.

Best Spread: Atlanta Falcons -4.5 (-121)

The Falcons look well set to cover -4.5 against Carolina. The line has already climbed from the opener, showing early confidence in Atlanta.

Carolina’s offensive line is in shambles with both Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett out, leaving Bryce Young exposed behind a patchwork unit. That makes it tough for the Panthers to protect him or establish the run.

Atlanta’s ground game is built to exploit this defense, which struggled against the run last year and is already near the bottom again. With control of the tempo and a weakened opponent, the Falcons have a clear path to win by at least 5 or 6 points.

Best Total: Vegas/Washington Over 43.5 (-110)

Both offenses have shown enough spark through two weeks to expect points here. The Raiders can’t get much going on the ground (just 2.9 YPC), so Geno Smith is likely forced into a heavier passing script. Washington has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and ranks top-10 in quick-pressure rate, which could create both explosive plays and short fields.

The quarterback situation makes it interesting, but even if Jayden Daniels sits, Marcus Mariota has proven he can move the ball efficiently. His dual-threat ability fits well against a Raiders defense that stacks the box and dares teams to throw. With both defenses giving up 33 points through two weeks, the ingredients are here for a back-and-forth game that pushes past the number.

🏆️ Week 3 Anytime Touchdown Scorers

Emeka Egbuka is making a name for himself in Tampa Bay. The rookie wideout already has three touchdowns in his first two games, including a highlight reel catch-and-run on Monday Night Football. He’s seeing over 90% of snaps and plenty of targets, which shows Baker Mayfield and the coaching staff trust him in big spots.

This week he gets a favorable matchup against the Jets, who have already allowed the third-most passing touchdowns in the league. With Sauce Gardner expected to shadow Mike Evans, Egbuka could be the one left with exploitable coverage. Egbuka looks like a strong bet to find the end zone again on Sunday.

Need more TD options for your Parlay this weekend? View the full list of recommendations from Jaxon! 👇️ 

Join the Giveaway in Discord!

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Come test your prop knowledge!