🏈 Week 4 Props from London to Charlotte

Watson's best half in Cleveland turned boos into cheers, plus looking ahead to the weekend slate

Author

Ian Maclin
October 02, 2026

Andre Szmyt drilled a 56 yard field goal with 10 seconds left Thursday night, and the Browns now sit alone atop the AFC North for the first time since 2014. At 3-1, they're off to their best start since 2001.

It wasn't pretty. Cleveland ripped off 21 unanswered points in the second quarter against a Pittsburgh secondary missing the freshly traded Joey Porter Jr. Then the Browns nearly gave it all back, committing 14 penalties before a picked off Hail Mary sealed it with time expiring.

The bigger story is Deshaun Watson. He threw for 181 yards in the first half, his best half since arriving in Cleveland, and finished 24 of 33 for 268 yards with a touchdown and an interception. That's three straight game winning drives, and the same home crowd that booed him after a rough opener was cheering him Thursday.

So is he forgiven? On the field, the case is building. Watson ranks eighth in completion percentage (69.6%) and 11th in yards per attempt. The cracks haven't disappeared, though. He's completing just a third of his throws inside the 10, 32nd among qualified passers, with only one touchdown pass inside the red zone all season. He also fumbled twice last night, losing one.

The harder question arrives this winter. Watson hits free agency after the season, and Cleveland is already carrying $86.2 million in dead money tied to him. With the Jets, Ravens, Titans, Steelers (again), Saints, and Texans up next, a 7-3 record heading into the Week 11 bye is realistic. If the wins keep stacking, the Browns will have to decide whether a few weeks of cheers are enough to re-sign the quarterback this fanbase spent three years booing.

🏈 NFL Anytime Touchdown Sheet

Pine's Anytime TD Sheet gives you everything you need to pick this weekend’s touchdown scorers:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's TD projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has found the end zone over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

🏈 Four Props for a Loaded Sunday

From London in the morning to Sunday Night Football in Charlotte, Week 4 is packed with favorable matchups the numbers like. Here are four props I'm backing.

Indianapolis and Washington kick off the day in London at 9:30 a.m. ET, both sitting at 1-2. Jayden Daniels is questionable with a dislocated elbow, so Marcus Mariota is expected to start after throwing three touchdowns in last week's upset of Seattle. 

Washington's run defense is strong, ranking third in rushing yards allowed, but this bet is about volume. Taylor handles a league high 91.5% of his backfield's touches and has reached 20 touches in 2 of 3 games. With the Colts laying 3.5 points and Daniel Jones struggling through the air, Indy will keep feeding him.

Jacksonville owns the second best DVOA in football and turns 88.9% of its red zone trips into touchdowns. Lawrence ranks eighth in passer rating (107.8) and the Jags rank fifth in touchdown rate. Cincinnati gets home without blitzing, but its secondary is giving up 314 passing yards per game, 31st in the league. In a game with a total above 51, Lawrence has a clear path to two scores.

Dallas has a top five offense by DVOA and Dak Prescott has thrown seven touchdowns with just one pick. Houston's front is the real test, but the Cowboys allow a sack on just 2.86% of dropbacks, second best in the NFL. Behind the pass rush, the Texans' secondary ranks 25th in yards allowed and still hasn't recorded an interception. Lamb has topped 110 yards in back to back weeks, is averaging 6.67 catches over his last three games.

Sunday night in Charlotte features a Carolina pass defense whose solid numbers no longer mean much. Starting corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are both on IR. Goff has eight touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 116.1 rating, and he's cleared this number in 7 of his last 10 games while averaging 287.6 yards. Carolina's run defense is dead last, so Jahmyr Gibbs will get his share, but Detroit's offense has scored 31 points per game for a reason.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏒 Igor is already making history this season. No other NY Ranger goalie has pulled this off. 

💰️ The standoff in Detroit is finally over. The number they landed on is massive.

🏎️ Get ready for an exciting Malaysia GP. The rough surface is already causing teams problems.

⚖️ City was already found guilty on all charges. This outcome will have massive implications on the game.

🔥 Plus-Odd Touchdown Targets

Three players stand out to score this weekend with strong red zone usage on teams that should get plenty of trips down field.

Don't let White's modest snap count fool you. When Washington gets close, he's the guy. The Commanders have run 16 plays inside the 10 this season, and White has been on the field for 10 of them, compared to just three for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Inside the 5, it's six of nine.

Washington also runs more zone concepts than any team in football, and Indianapolis has been gashed by them, allowing 5.49 yards per carry on zone runs. White is questionable with a shoulder injury so confirm he's active before betting. If he sits, Croskey-Merritt inherits the goal line work.

On the other side of that game, Warren is the red zone target for one of football's best finishing offenses. The Colts have scored the game's first touchdown in all three games this season after doing it in 15 of 17 last year. Warren caught 10 of his 19 red zone targets as a rookie and has hauled in all three looks inside the 20 so far this season.

Jonathan Taylor handles the goal line carries, but the throws near the end zone run through Warren. With Keenan Allen and Mo Alie-Cox both questionable, his share could grow even more.

Baltimore is laying 11.5 points at home against a Tennessee offense that has struggled to move the ball, which should translate into plenty of short fields and red zone trips for the Ravens. Flowers is Lamar Jackson's top target, and in a game Baltimore should control from the start, he'll have multiple chances to find the end zone.

🎯 Don't Guess, Ask Jaxon

Before you lock in tonight's slate, run it by Jaxon first.

Live odds, matchup breakdowns, and player prop analysis in seconds, no scrolling through tabs just to bet on the game.