🏈 Week 6 Props and Sunday Night Fireworks

Betting the Under in a Cowboys game is a losing strategy, find out why inside

Author

Ian Maclin
October 16, 2026

If you’ve bet the under in a Dallas game lately, you know how that ends. Since the start of 2024, the over is 27-11-1 in Cowboys games, including 4-1 this year. On the road, their last nine away games all cleared the set total score line, with final scores ranging from 48 to 74 points.

The formula is simple. Dallas scores 27.6 points a game behind the league’s fifth best offense by DVOA, then gives back 27.2 with a defense that ranks dead last. They’re the only team to allow 375+ yards in every game this season. It got bad enough that Brian Schottenheimer pulled Mike Pettine out of retirement this week to help first year coordinator Christian Parker. Fun twist: Pettine used to run Green Bay’s defense.

Sunday night’s game will be hosted at Lambeau Field, and games between these two have been pure chaos over recent years. The last six meetings dating back to 2016 all went over, with two of them finishing at 80 points. Last season’s 40-40 tie ended with nine straight scoring drives, the longest closing run since at least 1933.

Jordan Love just dropped 367 yards on Chicago last week and has multiple touchdown passes in all five games. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are the only teammates in the league both ranked top 10 in receiving yards. On the other side, Dak Prescott has topped 275 yards in four straight with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to feed.

The total sits at 52.5 with Green Bay favored by less than a field goal. Overs are 5-0 on Sunday Night Football and 8-2 on totals of 50 or more this season. We know which way we’re leaning.

🏈 Anytime TD Cheat Sheet  

Pine's Anytime TD Sheet gives you everything you need to predict this weekend’s touchdown scorers:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's TD projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has found the end zone over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

🏈 Sunday Props Targeting Weak Pass Defenses

Three of Sunday’s matchups pit a hot passing game against a secondary that’s been struggling, and we’re backing the over in each one.

On paper this is a ground war. Chicago and Atlanta own the two most productive rushing attacks in football, and Bijan Robinson leads the league with 580 yards. But Atlanta’s run defense is legit, holding opponents to 3.78 yards per carry and just three rushing scores all year. If Ben Johnson can’t move the ball on the ground, he’ll have to throw it.

That’s where Rome Odunze comes in. Caleb Williams is trending toward a return after another full practice, which brings back the downfield connection Odunze thrives on. The Falcons’ secondary is banged up with Terrell on IR and Henderson questionable, and they’re already giving up 274 passing yards a game. Odunze has gone over this number in four of his last five, averaging nearly 55 yards.

Buffalo has the most efficient offense in the league, but its defense is a different story. The Bills rank 31st in passing yards allowed at over 311 per game and have given up 13 touchdowns through the air.

Cousins is second in the NFL with 12 passing touchdowns and has thrown at least two touchdowns in four of his last five games. The Raiders can’t run the ball at all, ranking dead last in yards per carry, so they’ll lean on the pass against a secondary that has struggled all season. Cousins has also cleared this line in both home games, averaging 2.5 scores at Allegiant. If Vegas falls behind early, which is very possible, the passing volume only goes up.

Green Bay’s pass defense looks elite on paper, ranking sixth in yards allowed. The catch is that it hasn’t seen a quarterback like Prescott yet in an offense that is this pass-heavy. Dallas throws 38 times a game, can’t run the ball, and Prescott has topped 275 yards in each of his last four starts. He threw for 319 against this same Packers team last season.

Green Bay is also without Micah Parsons and Javon Hargrave, which takes away much of its pass rush. With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens running routes against a cleaner pocket, Prescott should have the time he needs. His projection sits around 283 yards, comfortably above the line.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏆️ The Brewers are heading to the World Series. The way they did it makes the story even better.

💰️ Wilson didn’t make much when she entered the league in 2018. Now, her $1.4 million WNBA salary is her side income.

🏒 Patrick Kane is loving life since returning to Chicago. He just became the greatest American playmaker in NHL history.

🏌️ The separation agreement has been finalized. Jon Rahm is no longer a part of LIV golf.

🏈 Predicting Sunday’s Touchdown Scorers

Bowers has played three games this season and scored in all three. No one else in the Las Vegas receiving room can say that. The usage explains it: his 11.33 targets per game lead every tight end in football, and he’s turning that into 104 yards per game, also tops at the position. He hasn’t finished below 85 yards yet. 🤯 

Near the goal line, he’s Kirk Cousins’ first read. Bowers has drawn five red zone targets, fourth most per game among tight ends. New England and Kansas City both tried bracketing him. He scored anyway.

The Bills have allowed 13 passing touchdowns through five games and rank among the most generous defenses in the league against tight ends. Cousins already has 12 touchdown passes, and Bowers is the most likely name on the other end of one this week.

Jordan Love just threw for 367 yards and two scores. Now he gets a Dallas defense that ranks last in DVOA, 30th against the pass, and is banged up at both corner and safety. Add a pass rush that isn’t getting home, and Love should have all day to throw.

Golden is the target to follow. His nine red zone looks lead Green Bay and rank fourth among all receivers, and he’s seeing 8.8 targets per game overall. Both of his touchdowns have come in his last three games, but the opportunity says more are coming.

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