Dallas and Baltimore meet Sunday afternoon in the NFL's first ever regular season game in Rio de Janeiro, and the biggest storyline all week has been the turf. Rio has endured its heaviest rainfall on record, leaving the surface soft, patchy, and slick. The NFLPA went public Friday, with JC Tretter noting that two of the three Brazil games have now had field problems.

The league isn't budging. Crews reinforced the natural grass with synthetic stitching, kept it under a giant tarp, and NFL officials say moving the game was never discussed. The locals aren't so sure. Flamengo players who call Maracanã home do not agree with the NFL, griping about bumps and shaky footing. Brian Schottenheimer's message to the Cowboys was simple: choose the right cleats, because slipping is on you.

Travel adds another wrinkle. Both clubs took a ten hour overnight flight Thursday and landed Friday morning, leaving roughly two days to shake off the trip. Neither side gets an edge there, and both play again next Sunday.

For Baltimore, the real question is Zay Flowers. His hamstring has kept him sidelined since the opener, but he logged a limited session in Rio on Friday and is listed as questionable. His impact is hard to ignore. The Ravens scored touchdowns on four of five drives with him in Week 1, then managed just three in 16 drives without him.

Expect his status to come down to the wire. On a field this unpredictable, sure footing and a healthy playmaker could swing the whole afternoon.

🏈 NFL Anytime Touchdown Sheet

Pine's Anytime TD Sheet gives you everything you need to pick this weekend’s touchdown scorers:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's TD projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has found the end zone over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

🏈 Likely Shootouts to Target Player Props

Several games on Sunday have the potential to turn into offensive shootouts, featuring two high-scoring teams and lower risk of a one-sided blowout. Here are three player props to target in these shootout candidates.

🔥 Josh Downs Over 4.5 Receptions

Houston at Indianapolis features the worst defense in football, and it belongs to the home team. The Colts are surrendering 37 points and 545.5 yards per game, dead last in both. Indy's offense also just got smaller. Alec Pierce, their only real deep threat, landed on IR, which pushes the passing game even further toward short, quick throws.

That's where Downs comes in. His target rate per route jumped from 12.5% in Week 1 to 30% in Week 2, when he caught seven balls against Kansas City and locked in an every down role. Houston's pass defense is allowing 9.62 yards per attempt (30th), and if Indy falls behind, Downs becomes Daniel Jones' go to chain mover. His projection sits at 4.83 catches.

🔥 Bucky Irving Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts

Minnesota blitzes on 79.3% of snaps, the highest rate in the league by a mile, and Baker Mayfield has already been pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks despite facing a modest blitz rate. Mayfield has a strong track record against extra rushers, but his line hasn't given him time to show it. Expect Tampa to lean on the ground game to keep him upright.

Irving has cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 games and 13 of his last 15, averaging nearly 17 carries in that span. With a 42.5 total and a 1.5 point spread, this sets up as a grinder, and Tampa's 22.5 carries per game leave plenty of room for his workload to climb.

🔥 Tyler Shough Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Shough leads the NFL with 662 passing yards, the most by a Saints quarterback through two games since Drew Brees in 2009. He's topped this line in five straight games, averaging 312.4 yards over that stretch.

The risk is real. The Raiders rank sixth in defensive DVOA, own the league's best pressure rate, and New Orleans just lost left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. But Las Vegas still allows 8.44 yards per attempt and 15.2 per catch, and the Saints throw on 69% of their plays. Shough has been sacked eight times and kept producing anyway. Volume carries this one, with a projection of 252.7.

 🌲 The Pine Line

⚾️ The Brewers completed a major franchise milestone. Not many have ever been on a team like this.

⭐️ PCA is now apart of MLB’s most exclusive group. Welcome to the 40/40 club.

🏀 The Warriors were ready to give him everything. Some decisions don’t come down to the money.

⚖️ The biggest conviction in sports history. The punishment could send shockwaves through English soccer.

🐎 Workhorse Backs Expected to Find the Endzone

A good formula for targeting touchdown props involves a workhorse back, a heavy share of the goal line work, and a defense that gives up the score, not just the yards. Two backs check every box this week.

🔥 Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown (-150)

Taylor is the template this weekend. He already has four rushing scores, tied for second in the league, and his usage near the end zone is about as concentrated as it gets. His ten red zone carries rank third, and five of his carries have come inside the 5-yard line, tied for second. Houston holds up fine between the 20s, allowing just 85.5 rushing yards per game, but that sturdiness fades once opponents get close. The Texans rank 30th in defensive DVOA and 25th in touchdown rate allowed. The price is steep, but the role and scenario justifies it.

🔥 Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown (+143)

If Taylor is the chalk, Pollard is the value. Tennessee's lead back draws a Giants defense that ranks 29th in both yards per carry allowed (5.04) and touchdown rate allowed (6.31%). Unlike Houston, New York can't even hold up on early downs, surrendering 116 rushing yards per game.

The Titans' offense has been ugly, ranking 29th in DVOA, and that actually works in Pollard's favor. A team that struggles to throw leans on its best runner, so expect him to get the call when drives reach the goal line.

🤔 Still not sure what to bet on?

Use the Parlay Generator on our home page for instant picks or discover player props on the consistency sheets! Pine Sports has the tools to give you an edge when it matters most.