The NFL playoff race reaches its boiling point this week with nine teams positioned to secure their postseason fate. While the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams have already punched their tickets, the battles for division crowns and the coveted first-round byes remain wide open.

AFC: The Race for the Top Seed

Denver Broncos (12-2): In the Driver's Seat

The Broncos control their destiny for both the AFC West title and the conference's lone first-round bye. Their path to securing home-field advantage is complex but achievable: a Denver win combined with losses or ties from the Chargers, Patriots, and Bills would lock it up.

What makes Denver's surge sustainable? A defense ranking 5th in DVOA and 3rd in points allowed per game (18.64). Quarterback Bo Nix has found his rhythm at the perfect time, recently matching his career high in touchdown passes. The analytics give Denver a 69% chance of claiming that No. 1 seed and bye week. They're favored by 3 points at home against Jacksonville this week.

New England Patriots (11-3): Sunday Night Coronation?

The Patriots can clinch a playoff berth with a win over Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, though they enter as 3-point underdogs. With over 99% playoff probability, it's a matter of when, not if. Their +106 point differential ranks 3rd league-wide, but they still only have a 64% chance of winning the AFC East despite facing the NFL's easiest schedule.

Wild Card Watch

The Bills (10-4), Chargers (10-4), and Jaguars (10-4) all stand on the playoff precipice. Buffalo's offense ranks 3rd in points per game (29.36), while Jacksonville's defense has been stifling, allowing just 86.29 rushing yards per game, best in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence has been surgical lately with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions across his last three games.

Don't sleep on the Houston Texans (9-5), who boast the league's 2nd-ranked defensive DVOA and allow a league-low 16.29 points per game. They're in a virtual tie with Jacksonville for the AFC South crown but face the Raiders at Home while the Jags travel to Denver.

NFC: West Coast Showdown Steals the Spotlight

The NFC West Heavyweight Fight

This week's marquee matchup features two 11-3 juggernauts. The Los Angeles Rams are traveling to Seattle in a game that will largely determine the NFC's top seed.

The Rams have been unstoppable offensively, ranking 1st in offensive DVOA and passing touchdowns (37). They've posted back-to-back games with over 500 total yards and 40 points. The analytics favor them with a 51% chance at the No. 1 seed.

But the Seahawks might be the NFL's most complete team. They lead the entire league in total DVOA (43.4%), defensive DVOA (-23.7%), and point differential (+163). A win at home clinches their playoff spot and puts them in control of the division race.

NFC East: Eagles Ready to Soar

Philadelphia (9-5) can wrap up the NFC East with a win over Washington, simultaneously eliminating Dallas (6-7-1) from division contention. The Cowboys' playoff probability sits below 1%, they'd need to win out while the Eagles lose out, which seems pretty unlikely at the moment.

NFC North: Bears and Packers Battle

The Bears (10-4) and Packers (9-4-1) collide in a classic rivalry game with massive playoff implications. Green Bay holds a slight edge in division probability (50% vs. 42%) and boasts the 4th-ranked offense, but Chicago counters with the league's most opportunistic defense and takeaway machine.

Both teams can clinch playoff berths if Detroit (8-6) falls to the Steelers, but that would require Pittsburgh overcoming the current 6.5-point spread.

NFC South: Winner Take All

The 7-7 Buccaneers and Panthers meet in a two-team race for the division. Tampa Bay holds the tiebreaker and 77% probability, but Carolina can flip the script by sweeping their two remaining meetings with the Bucs. They’re good value as three-point home underdogs this Sunday.

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🏈 Rams vs Seahawks on TNF

The stakes couldn't be higher as the Los Angeles Rams travel to Seattle for a Thursday night showdown that will shape the NFC playoff picture. With both teams entering at 11-3 and battling for the conference's top seed, this Week 16 matchup features the league's most efficient offense and its most dominant defense.

The advanced metrics reveal two teams operating at elite levels. The Rams rank 2nd in total DVOA at 43.3%, while the Seahawks edge them at 43.4% for 1st overall. The composition of their excellence couldn't be more different, the Rams lead the league with a 31.2% Offensive DVOA while ranking 3rd defensively at -14.5%, whereas Seattle counters with the NFL's best Defensive DVOA at -23.7% while sitting 9th offensively at 10.8%.

Recent trends intensify these contrasts. Seattle's defense has elevated to a staggering -34.0% DVOA from Weeks 10-15 while generating pressure on 34.4% of opposing dropbacks, the league's highest rate. Unfortunately for Seattle fans, their offense has cratered during this same stretch, plummeting from 20.9% DVOA (5th) to -1.2% (18th), culminating in a touchdown-less performance against the Colts last week.

The Rams have moved in the opposite direction, averaging 186.7 rushing yards over their last three games behind an offensive line posting the highest Adjusted Line Yards recorded since 2018. However, Davante Adams is questionable with a hamstring injury that Sean McVay described as "not looking good”.

The marquee matchup pits the league's 1st-ranked offense against its 1st-ranked defense. Matthew Stafford, playing at an MVP level with 37 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions, faces a Seattle defense that's recorded 41 sacks while ranking 3rd against the run. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold, who threw four interceptions in the first meeting, must navigate a Rams defense that ranks 3rd overall and 7th in interception rate.

LA Rams Moneyline (-104)

Vegas has effectively priced this game as a coin flip, and rightfully so. Given the recent offensive struggles of the Seahawks (18th DVOA over the last six weeks) and the massive advantage the Rams hold in offensive efficiency (1st), the Rams appear to have the slight statistical edge, even on the road.

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🔥 TNF Player Prop Value

The contrasting team profiles Thursday night create exploitable mismatches in the prop market. While Seattle's defense ranks 1st in DVOA at -23.7%, specific positional vulnerabilities remain. The Rams' offense, despite its league-leading 31.2% DVOA, faces its toughest test of the season.

Here are a few plays where the statistical evidence and matchup data align significantly in our favor.

Kyren Williams Over 67.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-117)

Kyren Williams has averaged 88.36 rushing and receiving yards per game this season, clearing the 67.5-yard threshold in 85.71% of his games and 90% of his last 20 contests. This line sits 20.86 yards below his season average despite facing a Seahawks defense ranked 7th against running backs.

The critical factor isn't Seattle's defensive ranking, it's the Rams' offensive line posting the best numbers in the league. Williams recorded 96 combined yards in their previous meeting, and with the Rams averaging 186.7 rushing yards over their last three games, the volume and efficiency metrics both point toward another over. The line undervalues both his consistent production and the historic run blocking creating his opportunities.

Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+104)

Matthew Stafford ranks 1st among all quarterbacks with 37 passing touchdowns, averaging 2.64 per game while hitting over 1.5 touchdowns in 85.71% of his games this season. He's thrown exactly 2 touchdowns in both the 2024 and 2025 matchups against Seattle. While the Seahawks rank 8th against quarterback passing touchdowns and 1st in touchdown percentage allowed, Stafford's red zone precision neutralizes this advantage.

Safford leads all quarterbacks with 56 red zone completions and 14 completions inside the five-yard line, converting drives into touchdowns at the league's highest rate. Getting plus money at +104 on a prop he's cleared in six straight games represents excellent value.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

JSN presents the game's most glaring statistical mismatch. The Rams rank 29th in the league defending wide receiver receptions, while JSN ranks 3rd among all receivers with 96 total receptions and 6.86 per game. He's cleared 6.5 receptions in 71.43% of games this season and 80% of his last ten. More tellingly, he caught 9.0 passes in the previous 2025 meeting against this same Rams secondary.

His elite usage metrics guarantee volume regardless of Seattle's offensive struggles. Even with the Seahawks' offense ranking 18th in DVOA recently, Smith-Njigba's role ensures he'll be fed targets. He’s maintained a 35.0% target share (1st among wide receivers) and 46.0% air yards share (1st among wide receivers) this season and is likely to be heavily involved once again.

🏈 Backup Quarterbacks to Back in Week 16

by Ed Egros

Before every NFL season, one of the more useful exercises I do is power rank the backup quarterback situation for every team. This painstaking analysis helps me figure out how to bet win totals: if a starting gunslinger gets hurt or loses his job, would their season completely implode?

Why It Matters Now

No one would have imagined the Indianapolis Colts turning to Philip Rivers if something happened to Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard, no matter how ambiguous the knee injury to the rookie is.  But, NFL teams are judged on how well the backup to the backup plans are, and if Leonard will never be a viable option anytime soon, it’s best to ding the Colts.

At the same time, despite a season-ending injury to Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs will turn to Gardner Minshew.  Calling his career topsy-turvy would be understatement.  He’s had some duds, but he also earned a Pro Bowl nod just a few years ago in Indianapolis, proving he can be a capable starter.  Minshew has also posted solid numbers and displayed real longevity compared with several other quarterbacks drafted in 2019: 

I’d call that a stable situation.

Lastly, there’s whatever is happening with the Cleveland Browns, having turned to the fourth quarterback on the depth chart to finish the rest of the season.  Even since the beginning of the season, that volatility seemed concerning.

Asking Jaxon

The market will almost always adjust to news of a backup starting.  Now that we’re approaching Week 16, I asked Jaxon which of these line movements were too big because of these changes, and which are not moving enough.

The first underrated quarterback mentioned turned out to be Gardner Minshew:

This line has moved approximately a full touchdown since the Mahomes news broke.

It shouldn't have.

Minshew may not have to be much more than a game manager and still cover against the Tennessee Titans. Just look at how much worse the Titans defense is compared with Kansas City's:

If the Titans cannot create any kind of ground game, Minshew may be the beneficiary of great field position. Handoffs to Isiah Pacheco and short passes to Travis Kelce may be all that's required of Minshew to win comfortably.

What About Old Man Rivers?

While he may be a fun story, Jaxon and I agree to fade Rivers and back the San Francisco 49ers instead:

In my opinion, as well as the 44-year-old can still break down a defense, he simply doesn't have the physical tools to keep this game competitive.

There’s also the 49ers offense Rivers will have to keep up with.  Despite missing time with a toe injury, he is still putting together another solid campaign:

As Jaxon pointed out, Purdy’s projected fantasy points ranks 6th in the NFL.  He should also have the services of running back Christian McCaffrey, against a Colts defense that has been struggling in several areas.  

Especially given opportunities to earn a great seed in the upcoming playoffs, the 49ers should handle the Colts.  

Key Takeaway

There may be no position more important in professional sports than quarterback. But don't forget about the infrastructure around these players—any added research into backup situations could prove valuable late in the season.

Jaxon crunches millions of data points in seconds to find the hidden value sportsbooks don’t want you to see.

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