Something interesting happened last night on Kalshi. The odds of Giannis Antetokounmpo landing in Chicago suddenly spiked from just 1% to a very real 20%, seemingly out of nowhere.

While everyone's been focused on Golden State and Miami, the Bulls have quietly positioned themselves as a legitimate dark horse. And when you look at what they can offer Milwaukee, it starts to make sense. The Bucks are spiraling at 18-29, sitting 12th in the East, and Giannis has reportedly told the front office he's ready for a change. For a team staring down a complete rebuild, Chicago's package of young talent could be exactly what Milwaukee needs.

Here's what makes this fascinating from a basketball perspective: the Bulls have been good but stuck. They're hovering around .500 at 24-26, playing decent basketball but clearly hitting a ceiling. The brutal 134-91 beatdown they took from Miami recently might have been the final push to go all-in.

If Chicago pulls this off, they'd likely have to part with some combination of Coby White, Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, and Ayo Dosunmu. That's a lot of talent walking out the door, but you don't land a two-time MVP without paying a premium. For Milwaukee, this package makes sense because it gives them young players to grow around.

For Chicago, the fit is almost too perfect. They're already fourth in the league in pace and seventh in transition efficiency, and Giannis is devastating on the fast break. They're also desperate for interior defense, ranking 22nd in defensive rating and dead last in preventing shots at the rim. Giannis would instantly flip that script.

The risks? Chicago would gut their depth, losing multiple double-digit scorers in one move. But that 20% jump suggests some major money is willing to gamble on Chicago as the Greek Freak’s next home. The financial flexibility is there, and the motivation is obvious.

Whether this actually happens or not, the Giannis sweepstakes just got a lot more interesting.

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🏒 NHL Shot on Goal Props

Tonight's 10-game NHL slate features several mismatches where high-volume offensive teams face defenses struggling to suppress shots. Based on the latest data, here are a few of tonight’s top plays.

Lucas Raymond Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-174)

Detroit might be the underdog tonight, but Lucas Raymond continues to be their offensive heartbeat. The kid is absolutely rolling, clearing this number in eight consecutive games heading into tonight. When you zoom out to his last 20 contests, he's still hitting at a 75% clip while averaging 2.1 shots per contest.

What really catches my eye here is the matchup history. Raymond has faced Colorado three times dating back to last season, and he's gone over in every single meeting while averaging 3 shots per game. The Avalanche rank 11th defending the wing position, which is solid, but hasn't slowed Raymond down historically.

The game script works in our favor too. Detroit will need to keep pace with Colorado's firepower, meaning Raymond should see heavy deployment on both the top line and power play.

Rickard Rakell Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120)

Pittsburgh is absolutely flying right now, winners of six straight games. They just hung six goals on the Rangers and show no signs of slowing down. Tonight they face an Ottawa squad that's been shaky defensively, setting up what should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.

Rakell has been central to Pittsburgh's surge, clearing 2.5 shots in 80% of his last five and ten games. His recent volume is particularly impressive at 3.6 shots per game over his last ten outings. When these teams met earlier this season, Rakell unleashed six shots on net despite the 4-0 loss.

With Pittsburgh's offense humming and Rakell entrenched in top-six and power play minutes, the shot volume should be there against a defense ranked ninth against his position.

Interestingly, this line opened at 4.5 and has dropped significantly, suggesting sharp money came in on the under at the higher number. Still, I like Rakell to comfortably clear 2.5 given his current form.

Barrett Hayton Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-134)

While Utah has struggled as a team, Hayton has stepped up as a primary offensive weapon. He's cleared 1.5 shots in 80% of his last ten games, with his volume spiking to 3.6 shots per game over his last five outings.

The matchup is golden. Vancouver ranks 31st defending Hayton's position, representing one of tonight's most exploitable mismatches, and have been the league’s worst team this season. Utah is leaning heavily on Hayton for production, and his shot-attempt numbers suggest he's got the green light from everywhere in the offensive zone. This one feels like a gift.

🌲 The Pine Line

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🏈 The final NFL coaching vacancy was filled. The Rams OC gets his first chance in charge.

🏀 Welcome to college basketball. Where eligibility is a myth and the rules don’t matter. 

🏈 Fourth Down Props for Super Bowl LX

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

It didn’t take much imagination to know what the Monday Morning Quarterbacks were complaining about after NFL Championship Sunday…Fourth Downs.

Broncos head coach Sean Payton went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Patriots’ 14-yard-line up 7-0, but it didn’t work out.  Rams head coach Sean McVay chose not to kick on fourth-and-4 from the 6-yard-line trailing 31-27, but that pass play was not meant to be either.  

Does the Chatter Matter?

Th0se two instances of going for it are a really small sample size of the 886 fourth-down attempts this season!  Of those, 489 of them moved the chains, a 55% conversion rate.

So what does any of this mean for Super Bowl LX?  Will there be added pressure on coaches to be conservative?  Or does the biggest stage in football mean being more aggressive?  Using Jaxon’s AI tools, let’s explore what to expect and what props we should bet on.

For the Seahawks…

Here’s something for the traditionalists: Seattle had the fewest fourth-down attempts in the league this season with 12.  That’s seven fewer than next-to-last Houston!  

But, fewer attempts doesn’t automatically mean conservative playcalling.  The website rbsdm.com tracks how often teams SHOULD be going for it when faced with such decisions, based upon where they are on the field, distance from the marker, etc.  From this perspective, Seattle is closer to the middle of the league.  

For the Patriots…

New-age football fans will love this one: New England's 72% fourth-down conversion rate was among the best in the league.

Aggressive play-calling and sharp play design are a big reason the Patriots are here. And with New England still an underdog heading into the Super Bowl, you'd expect Mike Vrabel to keep leaning into that aggression when the situation calls for it.

Historically at the Super Bowl

In each of the last few Super Bowls, there have only been two fourth-down attempts.  However, if you zoom out to include all postseason games, coaches have gotten more aggressive compared with the regular season.  

There's a reason for that. Playoff offenses tend to be better, so they convert at higher rates. Coaches have earned trust in their playbooks by this point. They know which plays are most efficient, and the stakes of each game sharpen decision-making. Context matters more when every possession could swing the outcome.

So, here are a few fourth-down props I like:

Total Successful 4th Down Conversions O1.5 (-106)

The Patriots could single-handedly get us to two conversions here. A team that's aggressive all season rarely reverses course on the biggest stage.  Conservatism doesn't suddenly become the play.

On short-yardage situations, New England typically runs and often converts.  Their elite run game with Rhamondre Stevenson and Drake Maye toting the rock continues to heat up this time of year.  

Will Either Team Convert a 4th Down Attempt in Their Own Territory? Yes (-104)

The Patriots are the likelier path to cashing this one, but don't sleep on Seattle.

One reason why Seattle seems conservative is the trust they place in their special teams, coming in second in DVOA.  Pinning the opposition deep and making field goals has served them well.

But if Seattle faces a fourth down in their own territory, the field position calculus changes. With a No. 1-ranked defensive DVOA, losing the field position battle may matter less than it usually does. The cost-benefit analysis could tip toward aggression at certain parts of the field; and given how potent Seattle's offense has been, they should convert.

Still not sure what to bet on?

Use the Parlay Generator for instant picks or ask Jaxon to break down any matchup you’re considering. You can also discover player props on the consistency sheets! The tools are here to give you an edge when it matters most.