The opening round of the NFL playoffs typically rewards favorites. Home teams with momentum, elite defenses, and quarterback advantages cash tickets at a predictable clip. But buried in the six-game slate are underdogs whose statistical profiles suggest the market has overvalued their opponents.

When an underdog wins, it's usually the result of a specific edge. That could be a defensive injury the market hasn't fully priced in, an offensive strength that exploits a specific weakness, or a team peaking at exactly the right moment while their opponent limps into January. This weekend delivers two underdogs that check multiple boxes.

🐻 Chicago Bears (+115) vs. Green Bay Packers

The Bears entering this matchup as home underdogs is a gift. Chicago is 11-6 and are ranking 5th in offensive DVOA during that stretch. The Packers are 9-7-1 and on a four-game losing streak, but the real story is what happened to their defense when Micah Parsons went to Injured Reserve.

In games with Parsons (Weeks 1-14), Green Bay ranked 10th in defensive DVOA (-5.0%). Since then, that number plummeted to 21.9%, ranking them 28th in the league. The anchor of their defense is gone, and the drop-off has been catastrophic.

The Bears rank 3rd in rushing DVOA (9.1%) and are facing a Green Bay run defense that just surrendered 300 yards to Baltimore. With D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai leading a physical, "bully ball" attack, the Bears can control the clock and keep Jordan Love off the field. Chicago's 67.0% red zone touchdown rate (6th in the NFL) means when they get close, they finish drives.

The statistical reality is clear: Green Bay's defense without Parsons is league-average at best, and Chicago's offense over the last month is top-five. At plus-money, the Bears moneyline is the sharp play.

🌉 San Francisco 49ers (+217) at Philadelphia Eagles

The 49ers enter as the 6-seed facing the 3-seed Eagles on the road, and the market has installed Philadelphia as moderate favorites. The underlying numbers tell a different story.

San Francisco finished the regular season with the #2 ranked Offense DVOA (17.5%), a level of efficiency that few teams can match. The Eagles' defense, while ranked 7th in DVOA (-9.9%), has struggled to prevent explosive plays and maintain consistency against elite play-callers.

The real mismatch is San Francisco's offense versus Philadelphia's offense. Over the last nine games of the regular season, the Eagles' offense ranked a lowly 22nd in EPA per play. They’re looking like a non-playoff team. San Francisco ranked 3rd in that same span, coinciding with Brock Purdy's return to form.

Purdy is operating as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football. Despite missing eight games this season, he ranks 11th in Passing EPA (63.13), 10th in completion percentage (69.37%), and 14th in yards per attempt (7.63).

George Kittle ranks 3rd among all tight ends in Receiving EPA (46.32) and 3rd in fantasy points per game (9.5). His 11.02 yards per reception highlights his ability to turn short passes into chunk gains, directly challenging Eagles linebackers in space.

Then there's Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' ultimate cheat code. His statistical profile as a receiver is better than most starting wideouts:

• Target Share: Leads all RBs with 23.0% (1st)

• Receiving EPA: Ranks 1st among RBs with 39.03

• Fantasy Points Per Game: #2 overall RB (18.51)

The Eagles allow 4.28 yards per carry (16th), which is league-average. If San Francisco establishes McCaffrey on the ground early, it forces Philadelphia's linebackers to cheat toward the line, leaving them even more vulnerable to Kittle and McCaffrey in the passing game.

The 49ers have won 7 of 9 away games this season, proving they travel well. Their #2 ranked offense provides a much higher ceiling than the odds suggest, especially if the Eagles' offensive line struggles continue.

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🏈 Wild Card Weekend Player Props

We're in for a treat this weekend with five great Wild Card matchups. Star running backs facing depleted defenses, elite pass-catchers against injured secondaries, and quarterbacks operating top-tier offenses with a dream of a Super Bowl trophy. Here are this week’s top props.

Kyren Williams Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The Carolina Panthers are the 10th-worst playoff team in DVOA history, scraping into the postseason at 8-9 by winning a weak NFC South. Their defense ranks 24th in Rushing Defense DVOA and allows 4.38 yards per carry (22nd). The Rams possess the #1 ranked Rushing DVOA offense (17.3%), and Kyren Williams is the centerpiece.

Williams ranks 8th in rushing yards per game (73.65) and has hit the over on this line in 80% of his last 5 games and 76.47% of his games this season. He's averaging 4.83 yards per carry, and the Rams' overall offensive efficiency (6.45 yards per play, 1st in the NFL) suggests they'll move the ball consistently.

The Rams have unlocked a devastating 13 personnel package (one back, three tight ends) that creates heavy sets Carolina's front can't match physically. Even if total possessions are limited, Williams' efficiency and the Rams' commitment to the run make this line very beatable.

D’Andre Swift Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Chicago Bears hold a definitive advantage on the ground against a Green Bay defense that's been exposed since losing Micah Parsons to a torn ACL. Chicago ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry (4.85) and 3rd in rushing yards per game (144.18), while Green Bay has plummeted to 31st in rushing success rate allowed in the three games since Parsons' injury.

D'Andre Swift is the primary beneficiary of this mismatch. He ranks 3rd among all RBs in Rushing EPA (15.45) and is averaging 4.87 yards per carry this season. Swift has averaged 67.94 rushing yards per game and has hit the over on this line in 53.33% of his last 15 games at a mean of 68.93 yards.

The Packers rank 20th in the league defending this position prop, and in Swift's two previous matchups against Green Bay this season, he averaged 60.5 yards. Those games, however, featured a healthy Parsons. With 223 carries this season (19th) and elite efficiency, Swift only needs moderate volume to clear this relatively low line.

Parker Washington Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Parker Washington has been on an absolute tear recently. Over his last five games, he's averaging 85.2 receiving yards per game and has hit the over on this line in 80% of those contests. He ranks 24th among all wide receivers in Receiving EPA (29.72) and averages 14.6 yards per reception.

The matchup against Buffalo is ideal for Washington's skill set. The Bills rank 20th in Defensive DVOA (3.2%) and have dealt with secondary injuries throughout the season. Buffalo will likely play more conservative shell coverages to prevent the deep ball, leaving the intermediate areas wide open.

Washington has averaged at least 11.5 yards per target over his last four games, and his 17% target share ensures he'll see the volume necessary to clear this line. With Jacksonville's offense ranked 14th in Offense DVOA (3.9%) and the Jaguars needing to keep pace with Buffalo's high-powered attack (6.46 yards per play, 2nd in the NFL), Washington should see plenty of opportunities in a game that projects to be higher scoring.

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🏈 Best Sack Props for Wild Card Weekend

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

Defense DOES NOT Win Championships—Except When It Does

No matter what your high school coach or parent or best friend told you growing up, research shows that offense is more important to winning a Super Bowl.  

Then again, there have been times vaunted defenses have carried their teams to championships: (e.g. the 2015 Denver Broncos, the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, etc.).  Could 2026 be another defensive year? With Houston, Denver, and Seattle fielding elite defenses while marquee quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson watch from home, the conditions are ripe.

Why It Matters

For us bettors, if defense truly dominates this postseason, backing defenders to make splash plays offers exceptional value.  In particular, sack props could pad our pocketbooks.  

Fortunately, Jaxon’s PrizePicks sheet has some fantastic recommendations, specifically when it comes to who will record a sack.  Here are three I am backing:

Will Anderson Jr. O0.5 Sacks

When looking at sack props, before I even think about the individual defender, the first thing I do is look at the opposing quarterback–and his protection–to see if they allow pressures and sacks.  After all, sacks are a quarterback stat.  

Houston is facing 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who is not as mobile as he used to be.  He may also want to throw to DK Metcalf frequently now that he’s back from suspension.  After all, the Steelers receiver has a 27.9% first-read share, meaning Rodgers prioritizes trying to get it to Metcalf before anyone else.

The problem for Pittsburgh is, All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. may be locked in on Metcalf in coverage.  If Stingley is winning those battles, it could mean secondary sacks.  

Enter Will Anderson.  This season, the Texans edge rusher notched 12 sacks (fourth among defensive linemen) and 36 defensive pressures (fifth among defensive linemen).  Expect him to make an impact Monday night.

Danielle Hunter O0.5 Sacks

Anderson isn’t Houston’s only weapon.  The entire defense has racked up almost as many sacks as anyone in the AFC side of the playoffs:

If it’s not Anderson with multiple sacks against Pittsburgh, it may be Danielle Hunter.  His 14 sacks this season ranks second among defensive linemen, and his 33 pressures puts him sixth.  

If the Steelers double Anderson, Hunter should see increased opportunities to bring down Rodgers.

Good luck this weekend!

Still not sure what to play? Use the Parlay Generator for instant picks or ask Jaxon to break down any matchup you’re considering. You can also discover player props on the consistency sheets! The tools are here to give you an edge when it matters most.

Good luck this weekend.