The 2022 World Cup final between France and Argentina was one of the greatest single sporting events most of us have ever watched. The Qatar final gave us 120 minutes of chaos, a penalty shootout, and the trophy-lifting moment Messi had been chasing. Now, four years later, the signs are pointing toward a rematch.

France is currently the tournament favorite at +350. They generate the highest expected goals per 90 minutes, their counter-attacking structure is lethal, and their roster is as deep as any in the tournament.

France’s path to the final begins with Sweden in the Round of 32, where they're priced at -380, then likely Germany in the next round. A win would likely be followed by the Netherlands in the quarterfinals and a semifinal clash with Spain. Brutal bracket on paper, but France has the individual quality and depth to cut through that kind of schedule.

Argentina sits at +400, second on the board. They have evolved since 2022, leaning into an even more possession-oriented system built around defensive stability. They don't need to dominate games, they need to control them and limit the moments that matter. The man behind their tactics hasn’t made a wrong move in the last 4 years.

Their path to the final starts with Cape Verde, then Australia or Egypt, before their first real test (on paper) in a quarterfinal against Colombia or Switzerland. That would set up a semifinal most likely against Brazil or England. Who would say no to a Superclásico in a World Cup semifinal?

France is favored largely because of volume. They generally have more shots, more possession, and more depth. But there is always Messi. Messi doesn't need 20 chances to change a game. His presence alone forces defensive midfielders out of position, which opens lanes for Argentina's runners. He scored in every knockout round in 2022 and has an elite conversion rate on direct free kicks that makes every foul within 30 yards a legitimate scoring threat.

The odds for the trophy are hard to split but if you believe in a rematch, DraftKings has both teams to reach the final at +700.

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⚽️ Round of 32 Drama Kicks Off

Canada officially got us underway yesterday in the knockout phase of this World Cup, winning a knockout game for the first time in their nation’s history. Three Round of 32 matchups today, and there's real edges to discuss in each one.

Brazil vs. Japan

Brazil was dominant in the group stage with seven goals scored and only one conceded across three matches. Vinícius Júnior led the attack with four goals on 12 shots and Matheus Cunha adding three more on just seven attempts. Nobody else has been able to find the back of the net. It doesn’t hurt that their goalie, Alisson, has been nearly untouchable in goal with 12 saves from 13 shots on goal.

Japan has once again been a tough team to face. They've matched Brazil's seven-goal total and every single one of them came off an assist, which speaks to a team that wins through movement and chemistry rather than individual brilliance. Daichi Kamada has been their engine with two goals and 137 accurate passes.

The +1.5 spread is juiced all the way to -228, which tells you this to expected stay close. With the defensive discipline of both sides, under 2.5 total goals looks like the best value today.

Germany vs. Paraguay

Germany controls games. Their 61% average possession and 87.3% pass accuracy in the group stage was suffocating. Leroy Sané has been explosive up front, Florian Wirtz is the creative hub, and Jonathan Tah completed 94 of 99 passes in their last match while adding 12 defensive interventions.

Paraguay has survived on grit and elite goalkeeping. Orlando Gill was the best player on the pitch in their draw with Australia with five crucial saves. Paraguay enters without Diego Gómez, suspended after yellow card accumulation, which is a real blow to their midfield stability. They do get Miguel Almirón back from his own suspension, but losing Gómez against a team that generates the volume Germany does is a significant problem.

If Germany plays to their potential, this one could get out of reach quickly for Paraguay.

Netherlands vs. Morocco

The Dutch have been the most prolific offense in the tournament, averaging 3.33 goals per game across the group stage with ten total. Brian Brobbey has three goals, van Hecke has been a distribution machine from the back, and van Dijk remains the defensive anchor with 12 interventions in the final group match alone.

Morocco earned a credible 1-1 draw with Brazil, following a dark horse run in the 2022 tournament that went all the way to the semi finals. Achraf Hakimi is one of the most dangerous players on the field, but the Dutch roster depth is simply on another level.

I like the Netherlands at plus odds for a regulation win today purely for the value, but I also won’t be surprised if it goes to extra time. Double-Chance would be the safer alternative.

🌲 The Pine Line

⛳️ Weather caused problems at the Travelers Championship. Now two pros have a Monday morning tee time.

🏎️ It’s not retirement, and it’s not a different race series. Max could be leaving Red Bull anyways.

💣️ Schwarber’s two-run shot in the seventh put him in a new tier. He’s setting franchise records in Philadelphia.

🏒 Diversity was on display across Buffalo this weekend. The NHL Draft was one worth celebrating.

🏈 A Raiders rookie painted a clear picture of leadership. Vegas has their man for it in the locker room.

⚾️ Clear Skies for Big Hits Tonight

Clear weather is expected across the league today which normalizes conditions for our player prop picks. Today we’re focused on two high contact environments and vulnerable pitching staffs.

👉️ TJ Rumfield Player Prop

This Rockies/Marlins matchup features the highest run total line on the board. Coors Field's altitude and gusting winds consistently inflate batting averages on balls in play. Colorado currently allows about 10 hits per game this season, nearly a full hit more than any other staff in baseball. The Marlins aren't an elite offensive club, but they average 8.1 hits per game and are walking into the best batting park in the league.

Colorado's offense isn't irrelevant here either. The Rockies rank third in the league in total hits, so both sides can put up numbers. The Marlins allow 7.50 hits per game, which is respectable, but that number should rise when playing a mile above sea level.

TJ Rumfield has hit the over on total bases in all five of his last five games, averaging 2.6 bases per game in that stretch. Pull it out to 15 games and he's maintained a 73% hit rate. He's become the most consistent power source in Colorado's lineup, and today's environment sets him up perfectly.

👉️ Corbin Carroll Player Prop

San Francisco sits fourth in the league in hits per game at 8.75, a contact-first offense that grinds at-bats and puts the ball in play consistently. They're walking into Chase Field, which carries a 105 hits park factor and ranks second overall in park factors league-wide. The large outfield dimensions there routinely turn catchable fly balls into extra-base hits.

Matt Chapman is hitting .333 against Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez in their career sample, and Casey Schmitt is an absurd 5-for-8 against him, a .625 clip. On the flip side, Ketel Marte has been a nightmare for Giants starter Tyler Mahle, going 8-for-15 with two home runs for a .533 career average.

Corbin Carroll is the prop to target on the Arizona side. He's cleared his hit line in 70% of his last ten games, averaging 1.1 hits per game in that span, and his home hit rate sits at 65% this season. He's well-positioned today to contribute on offense today.

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