Golf's oldest major returns to Royal Birkdale this week, and the winner won't just take home the Claret Jug. He'll carry the title of Champion Golfer of the Year, an honor that traces back to 1860.

Birkdale has hosted ten previous Opens, the last coming in 2017 when Jordan Spieth authored one of the more memorable closing rounds to win the tournament. What separates this venue from the rest of the rotation is its reputation for fairness. Enormous dunes wall off nearly every hole, but the fairways below sit flat, so a good tee shot gets the reward it deserves.

The catch is what waits outside those fairways. Deep pot bunkers punish anything offline, and the swirling coastal wind makes club selection guesswork. If the week stays dry, the turf firms up and drives start chasing 50 yards or more, which shifts the emphasis from raw distance to placement. Tee shots matter more here than almost anywhere.

That framing points toward Rory McIlroy. He completed the Grand Slam at Augusta this spring, has three top 10s in his last four Opens, and led the Scottish Open field in strokes gained off the tee before finishing second. His length lets him fly bunkers that swallow shorter hitters. A top 10 ticket feels like solid value.

Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion, but missed his first cut in 78 starts at the Scottish, and has never finished worse than 25th in five Open appearances. Treat the missed cut as noise. Scheffler leads the tour in every total strokes gained category.

A couple other golfers to watch include Åberg, who keeps knocking on the door with elite driving in both distance and accuracy. Chris Gotterup at +3000 is a solid longshot after a T11 last week and some highlight reel moments at majors in recent years.

There are a couple golfers worth fading too. Be careful with Wyndham Clark. Yes, he won the U.S. Open trophy, but he got worse throughout the tournament before shooting a 73 on the last day. His history of even finishing Top 20 in Majors is not encouraging.

One more thing: watch the Thursday tee time draw carefully. Morning calm and afternoon gusts have decided this championship before.

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⚾️ Home Run Derby + ASG Trends

The Derby lands at Citizens Bank Park tonight with a rule change that matters more than the venue. The clock is gone. Opening round hitters get 20 swings, semis and finals get 15, and a round cannot close on a homer, meaning a hot bat keeps swinging until an out shows up. That turns the event from a conditioning test into an actual home run contest.

Schwarber (+316) leads the majors with 32 long balls and Citizens Bank is one of the friendliest launch pads in baseball for lefty pull power. The timer was the one thing that ever hurt him, since his game is built on deliberate, selective hacks rather than rapid-fire pace. Last summer's swing-off, where he went three for three, is exactly the skill this format now measures.

Caminero (+426) is the main threat to Schwarber. He's at 28 homers this season and went on a rampage, hitting 11 in 12-days entering the break. His average swing speed is the fastest in the league.

Murakami (+525) owns the highest average launch angle in the field but just came off a hamstring IL stint Friday. Health is the only question. If it's a non-issue, his raw pop plays in the South Philly air but I’m hesitant.

Walker (+641) is my favorite longshot. He sits second only to Caminero in bat speed, and his violent, high-effort cut used to gas him out under the clock. That penalty no longer exists. He’s also the first Cardinal since Pujols to bat in the derby, and he’ll have the same pitcher as Albert did.

Angles for Tuesday’s All-Star Game

The Under has been the sharpest side in this game for the better part of two decades. Scores often land near 3-2 or 4-3 while books set lines of 7.5 or 8.5. Hitters see a new flamethrower every inning and never have time solve any of them.

If you want a winner, just pick the American League. The AL has taken 10 of the last 15 and only lost by a tiebreaker last year. They stack strikeout arms and can close the door with a different reliever every frame from the fifth on.

The two best starters in the sport, fully rested, throwing max effort for one or two innings against the top of a lineup that hasn't seen them. That combination doesn't produce first inning numbers very often. No Runs First Inning has hit in exactly half of the last ten All Star games.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🤕 McGregor’s comeback ended exactly how you’d fear. The ultimate buzzkill to end fight night.

🏀 Sophie has a back up plan if things don’t pan out with Indiana. Dana White hired her on the spot this weekend.

🏈 The Seattle Seahawks finally have a new owner. The impact will extend far beyond just the football team.

🎾 A month ago we was collapsing at the French Open. Now he is lifting the most meaningful title of his career.

⚽️ Last Four Fight for World Cup Trophy

Spain, France, Argentina, and England are all that remain. Spain is the most complete side left. They have scored 11 goals in the tournament with an expected goals at 12.75. They have allowed only 1 goal after keeping 5 clean sheets to start the tournament. They're the only remaining team living in the top tier on both sides of the ledger.

Spain generates the most and concedes the fewest shots per 90. The counter-press wins possession high, which kills opposing transitions before they start. Note that this isn't the patient passing carousel of a decade ago. They're playing straighter, using wide players to pull back lines apart.

France is the biggest threat to that. Their 53% possession looks modest, but their expected goals per shot is among the best in the whole tournament. When they break, they break into genuinely good looks rather than hopeful ones. They defend by compressing the middle and letting their wide speed punish anyone who overcommits. Sixteen goals on 13.3 xG signals that they’ve converted some unlikely opportunities.

Argentina is strong in the possession battle at 55%, second only to Spain (60%). Their control is the defense. The wrinkle worth pricing is set pieces, where a real slice of their 13.9 xG originates. That keeps them live in ugly, low-tempo matches that would otherwise favor an opponent.

England is the outlier. They have the most Attempts inside the Penalty Area of the remaining teams, but the lowest expected goals at 12.2. They've been converting equal to their creation rate, with 13 goals, and have been on of the more resilient teams in the tournament with multiple comebacks.

Argentina holds the ball and France holds the star quality, but the pick is Spain. Spain out-creates and out-suppresses everyone simultaneously. Consider England unders and Argentina set piece props as separate angles regardless of who lifts the trophy this weekend.

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