This is it. The Toronto Blue Jays are heading home to the Rogers Centre with a 3-2 lead, one win away from their first World Series title since 1993. The atmosphere in Toronto is absolutely electric, and the narrative is set for a classic elimination game.

Guerrero Jr. has been on a heater in the playoffs, and especially in the world series. In this final series he has recorded 14 total bases from 8 hits, has scored 6 runs (1+ in 4 of 5 games), and has dominated the Dodgers in 2025 averaging 1.38 hits/game against them.

In the other dugout you’ve got Freddie Freeman, who is making a habit featuring in World Series walk-off home-run moments. Freeman averaged 1.21 hits on the road this year and has 5 so far in this series. His one hit in Toronto earlier in the series was a double in his first AB against Gausman, tonight’s starting pitcher for the Jays.

History is heavily leaning toward the Blue Jays. Teams that win Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead go on to win the series 67.6% of the time. That percentage jumps even higher to 74.1% when that team returns home for Games 6 and 7.

The Blue Jays have the momentum and the home crowd, but the Dodgers have Yamamoto, Ohtani, and the desperation of elimination. Don’t miss this one.

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🏈 NFL Week 9 Best Bets

by Tony Reyes

Why Buying the Vikings up to +9.5 at the Lions is SHARP

Detroit is an 8.5-point home favorite against Minnesota, and the public is all-in on Detroit to cover. The Lions are 5-2, fresh off a bye, ranking 3rd in Total DVOA and have dominated the Vikings in five straight meetings scoring 30+ points each game.

But the sharp money is telling a different story.

The line opened at Lions -9.5 and moved DOWN to -8.5, even as the public piles on Detroit. This downward movement highlights sharp money backing Minnesota and suggests the market has overreacted to the Vikings' recent struggles. 

When the public hammers one side and the line moves the OTHER direction? That's professionals stepping in. Analytical models give Minnesota a 53.7% chance to cover +8.5, pointing to an inflated line. 

Minnesota's path to covering starts with their pass rush. The Vikings own the NFL's 2nd-best QB pressure rate. Yes, their run defense is weak (24th in the league), but that relentless pressure can disrupt Jared Goff and cap Detroit's offensive explosiveness. Pressure creates mistakes, and mistakes keep games close.

On offense, rookie QB J.J. McCarthy returns for Minnesota despite the offensive line struggling mightily, they rank 31st in sacks allowed. Detroit will likely focus on clock control with their strong rushing attack (7th in rushing yards per game) rather than running up the score. The Lions want to grind this game out, not get into a shootout.

The projected score? Lions 27, Vikings 20. That's a 7-point spread. Buy the point, take Vikings +9.5, and get yourself a valuable edge in a game projected to be much closer than the public thinks.

Grab Vikings +9.5 at -122 before the market adjusts.

Why Texans to Win by 1-6 Points at +300 Is The Win Margin Play Of The Week

The Under 40.5 is the safe play. Sharp money is all over it, and the defensive metrics scream low-scoring rock fight.

But if you want REAL value? If you want to triple your money on a bet that aligns PERFECTLY with the game script?

Target the Texans to win by 1-6 points at +300 odds.

The line movement tells the entire story. The line opened with Denver as the favorite, then FLIPPED to Houston -1.5. That's not the public moving numbers—that's sharp money moving the market. Professional bettors are placing massive wagers on the Texans to win at home, and the market respects that money enough to completely reverse the favorite.

The total sits at 40.5 points—one of the lowest on the entire Week 9 slate. When you combine a rock-bottom total with sharp money backing the home team, it signals one thing: a CLOSE game. Houston wins, but they don't blow Denver out of the water. They win ugly.

The betting splits prove the sharp action. At DraftKings, only 22% of bets are on Houston, but those bets account for 48% of the money. That's the definition of sharp action—small volume, big dollars. The professionals are backing Houston, but they're not expecting a blowout.

Here's the game script that cashes this bet. Houston's defense ranks #1 in the NFL in points allowed at 14.71 per game. Denver's offense is methodical and run-heavy (4th in rushing yards), designed to control the clock and keep games close. Bo Nix has taken only 8 sacks all season because Denver's offensive line protects him exceptionally well.

Denver's pass rush (1st in sack rate at 13.23%) should cause problems for C.J. Stroud. When Stroud is under pressure, his completion rate drops from 68% to 51%. That means Houston's offense will struggle to pull away and score in bunches. They'll get points, but it'll be a grind.

Final score? Texans 17, Broncos 14. Or maybe 20-17. Hell, maybe 16-13. That's a 3-6 point margin—right in the sweet spot for this bet. With +300 odds, you're getting 3-to-1 on the exact kind of outcome the sharps are backing in this matchup.

The Texans win this one by less than a touchdown. 

Take Texans to win by 1-6 points at +300.

Why Steelers Moneyline Is The Upset Of The Week

The public sees the 7-1 Indianapolis Colts rolling into Pittsburgh and thinks this is easy money. The Colts are averaging 33.8 points per game, #1 in the NFL. They've scored 30+ points in four straight games and are 6-2 against the spread this season. A staggering 78% of all money wagered on the spread is on Indianapolis.

But the line movement reveals sharp resistance. The line opened at Colts -2.5 and moved to -3. Despite nearly 80% of the money backing Indianapolis, the line STOPPED at the key number of 3 and refuses to budge. That's sharp money buying the Steelers at +3, creating resistance against the public's push. When the line won't move despite overwhelming public action, you know the pros are on the other side.

Mike Tomlin as a home underdog is MONEY. Tomlin holds a 64-37 record against the spread when receiving points in his career. When specifically playing at home as an underdog, the Steelers have covered 75% of the time. On average, his underdogs outperform the spread by 3.38 points. That's not luck—that's preparation, discipline, and coaching.

The matchup favors Pittsburgh's passing attack in a massive way. The Colts' pass defense is TERRIBLE. They're allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.30% of their passes and giving up 1.59 passing touchdowns per game. Wide receivers are torching them for 151 receiving yards per game. This secondary is getting picked apart weekly.

Aaron Rodgers ranks 2nd in the league in passing touchdowns. DK Metcalf and company are about to feast on this secondary like it's Thanksgiving dinner. The Colts might score 30 points, but the Steelers are built to keep pace through the air.

At +156 odds, the market is giving the Steelers just a 39.06% chance to win outright. But when Mike Tomlin is a home underdog, he historically outperforms spreads by 3+ points. When the Colts' biggest weakness (pass defense) matches perfectly with the Steelers' biggest strength (passing attack), that implied probability is way too low.

The sharps aren't just taking Steelers +3. They're betting on the upset. 

Take Steelers Moneyline at +156.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 A monster in the red zone and the best prices we’ve seen all season. Here are the top Touchdown props for Sunday’s NFL slate. 

🏒 The frozen frenzy was just as advertised. 109 Goals across 16 games, 7 hours.

🏆️ Destined group winners, early eliminations, and teams who just hope for a wild card spot. The NBA Cup starts tonight!

🏀 Can the Gators repeat with a largely new starting squad? ESPN dropped their NCAAM mega preview and it’s worth a look.

🏎️ It’s been 17 years since the 2008 F1 title. It might make for the strangest racing drama of the decade.

🏈 Top NFL Sunday Player Props

Week 9’s prop slate features several lines that look like they haven’t caught up to recent news, usage shifts, and matchup realities. These are the spots from Jaxon that I like most this week.

Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-117, Caesars)

This is a sharp buy-low opportunity on Caleb Williams in a game that could turn into a shootout. He’s averaging nearly 244 passing yards over his last five games and sits just above this number for the season. Cincinnati’s secondary has been a problem all year, ranking 29th in passing yards allowed and giving up 250 per game. Their lack of pass rush doesn’t help and with Trey Hendrickson banged up, Williams should have plenty of time to operate.

The Bears’ ground game will set up play-action opportunities, and with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze both active, Chicago’s passing efficiency should climb. Cincinnati ranks dead last in overall defensive DVOA and bottom three in opponent third-down conversion rate, which means sustained drives and multiple scoring chances. Williams has cleared this line in tougher spots, and the game flow sets up perfectly for him to air it out once again.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-118, BetMGM)

Pat Freiermuth’s receiving line looks like an overcorrection. The Colts rank 29th in defense versus tight ends, consistently allowing chunk plays over the middle. Freiermuth doesn’t need volume to get to 20 yards. He ranks sixth among all tight ends in yards per catch at 12.5, meaning just two receptions could be enough.

While his home splits haven’t been great, this matchup is tailor-made for a rebound. Indianapolis struggles to contain tight ends on seam routes and play-action crossers, both staples of Pittsburgh’s offense. If the Steelers fall behind early, Freiermuth should see increased looks in the middle zones where the Colts are weakest.

Jayden Daniels (WAS) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-114, BetRivers)

Jayden Daniels has hit the under on this line in three of his last five games, and his current hamstring injury adds even more downside. Washington’s offense has cooled off lately, averaging just over 23 points per game, and now faces one of the NFL’s elite defenses. Seattle ranks seventh in points allowed and third in yards per play allowed, forcing opponents to settle for field goals more often than not. Their top-10 pressure rate will make it tough for Daniels to hold the ball long enough to push it downfield.

Daniels’ mobility will likely be limited, removing one of his biggest weapons for extending plays and creating red-zone opportunities. If Marcus Mariota is forced into action, the Commanders’ passing ceiling falls dramatically. Seattle ranks second overall in Defensive DVOA and seventh in Defensive EPA, giving them multiple ways to neutralize a quarterback playing at less than full health. The odds of Daniels throwing two or more touchdowns here are slim.

All the sports…

MLB may be wrapping up, but that still leaves NHL, NBA, NFL, Soccer, F1, UFC, college sports, and more to keep track of. How does anyone keep up?

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