Super Bowl LX features two 14-3 powerhouses that have steamrolled their respective conferences all season long. The Seattle Seahawks enter as one of the most dominant DVOA teams in modern NFL history, while the New England Patriots have transformed from an offensive juggernaut into a defensive fortress during their current six-game winning streak.

The advanced metrics suggest this game will be decided by explosive plays. Seattle boasts a league-best +4.7% explosive play differential while New England counters with the NFL's highest explosive creation rate on offense at 13.6%. 

The Seahawks' Defensive Masterclass

Seattle has been the most complete team in football this season, ranking first in total DVOA at a staggering 44.9%. Their defensive dominance under Mike Macdonald has been the gold standard of the 2025 season. Seattle ranks first in defensive DVOA at -24.5% and have allowed just 17.2 points per game, the best mark in football. 

Offensively, Sam Darnold has resurrected his career under coordinator Klint Kubiak, leading the NFL with a 51.7% DVOA on play-action passes. The Seahawks are most dangerous when operating from 12 personnel with one running back and two tight ends. When Darnold deploys play-action from this grouping, he averages an absurd 15.7 yards per attempt. The Seahawks will be sad to lose Kubiak after this game.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the league's premier man-coverage killer, averaging 4.16 yards per route run against man defense while finishing with 1,793 receiving yards, the most among all wide receivers. Kenneth Walker III provides the boom-or-bust element in the backfield, leading the NFL in avoided tackle rate at 34.4%. Seattle scores 29.2 points per game, the highest average in football.

New England's Defensive Transformation

While New England's full-season DVOA sits at 10.6%, ranking ninth overall, their weighted DVOA, which prioritizes recent performance, ranks them second in the NFL. 

The defense has allowed just 0.7 points per possession over three playoff games, territory occupied by very few teams. They've achieved this transformation by becoming the second most blitz-heavy team in the NFL since Week 9, applying constant pressure and forcing quarterbacks into uncomfortable decisions.

The Patriots' offense lives on verticals, those deep throws outside the numbers that stretch defenses to their breaking point. Drake Maye was the league's best quarterback on these deep outside throws, posting a 98.3 total QBR. His 4,394 passing yards rank fourth in the NFL, and his passing EPA of 165.16 sits first among all quarterbacks. He's also a legitimate dual-threat weapon with a rushing success rate above 50%.

Stefon Diggs continues to be a high-efficiency target with a receiving EPA of 70.37, fourth among wide receivers. Hunter Henry has also been critical, finishing seventh among tight ends with 768 receiving yards, and he'll face a Seattle defense that ranked 16th in total DVOA against tight ends, one of their few relative weaknesses.

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🏆️ SB LX Player Prop Angles

The player props market offers several exploitable opportunities based on advanced metrics and recent performance trends.

TreVeyon Henderson Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

This number looks absurdly low given Henderson's consistency all season. Whether you look at his last five, ten, or twenty games, he's hit the over 80% of the time. He's averaging 38.4 yards over his last five games and 53.8 yards over his last ten. 

The Seahawks' defense is elite, ranking third in rushing yards allowed and first in yards per carry allowed at 3.7. However, they rank 21st in tackle efficiency and 24th in total missed tackles with 109. Henderson ranks eighth among all running backs in rushing EPA and fifteenth in yards per carry at 5.06. He averages 10.59 carries per game, but half that many should be enough to clear this line. 

Austin Hooper Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

While Seattle's defense ranks first in DVOA overall, their one relative weakness is defending the tight end position. Hooper has hit the over on this 7.5-yard line in 16 of his last 20 games and 7 of his last 10. His season average of 18.47 yards per game is nearly double this line.

He ranks fifth among tight ends in yards per target at 10.12 and eighth in yards per reception at 12.52. The Seahawks rank 21st in the NFL against the tight end position specifically for receiving yards. While their cornerbacks eliminate the perimeter, they often allow space in the intermediate middle of the field and Hooper's 80.77% catch percentage makes him the perfect candidate to exploit this.

Kenneth Walker II Over 2.5 Receptions (-113)

Kenneth Walker III is widely known for his goal-line dominance and explosive rushing, but his involvement in the passing game is an undervalued part of his profile. Walker has been a consistent target-earner lately, averaging 3.2 receptions per game over his last five games, and he's hit the over on this prop in 70% of his last ten games.

The New England Patriots rank 21st in the league in defending receptions against the running back position. With Seattle likely facing a heavy pass rush from a Patriots front that ranks eighth in sacks, expect Sam Darnold to utilize Walker on quick screens and check-downs to neutralize the pressure. Walker's 86.11% catch percentage in 2025 shows he's elite at hauling in the targets he does get.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏆️ Players don’t always perform as expected in the Super Bowl. This analysis reveals surprising patterns about alpha receivers in the big game.

🩼 Seattle couldn’t get through the first full practice for the Super Bowl. Now their young star is just hoping he can play.

🏃‍♂️ All the focus is on stopping the big play. Don’t forget to keep eyes on the QB. 

🍀 There were 886 fourth-down attempts this season. Will either team convert one on Sunday night?

💵 Does your state have a betting ban? Super Bowl gamblers have found a way around them.

A Super Bowl LX PrizePicks Parlay

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

The weekend is just about here, and fewer things are standing in your way from making your last bets on Super Bowl LX.  What we’ve already established is this 4.5-point spread is large for Super Bowl standards and the total of 45.5 is also low for the big game.

And Now…

We can use what we’ve learned about what the market is telling us, as well as Seahawk and Patriot tendencies, to put together a four-legged parlay.  Using Jaxon’s PrizePicks sheet to find value, here’s what I concocted:

Mack Hollins More Than 27.5 Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs leads the Patriots with more than 100 targets.  Hunter Henry isn’t far behind that mark.  But the third option in this passing attack is Mack Hollins.

If the Seahawks do not get to the quarterback, Drake Maye can use his mobility to extend plays and go through his progressions. Even if Hollins isn't the primary option, there will be time for him to become the best option.

Hollins will also have more time to go deeper down the field. Averaging nearly 61 air yards per game (50th in the NFL) means 1-2 catches could clear the number.

Elijah Arroyo More than 0.5 Receptions

It can't be Jaxon Smith-Njigba getting every target for the Seahawks. Sam Darnold has to distribute the production around, and a backup tight end may be just as likely as anyone.

Elijah Arroyo was activated from injured reserve a few weeks ago after suffering a knee injury.  He was a healthy scratch in the NFC Championship Game, but assuming he's available for the Super Bowl, there's not much tape on him.

That element of surprise could be enough for one good catch and one winning leg.

Rhamondre Stevenson More than 0.5 Touchdowns

Not only has the Patriots running back taken over the largest share of the backfield workload, he's become an integral part of New England's red zone offense.

Inside the 5-yard line, Stevenson has 10 carries for four touchdowns. The Seahawks' front may be formidable, but Stevenson is almost guaranteed to at least get chances to score.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba More Than 7.5 Receptions

I believe JSN will be Super Bowl MVP.  I wrote it before and I’ll write it again: this season, no receiver had a higher target share (35.8%), no one had more receiving yards (1,793) and almost no one had more receiving yards per route run among qualifiers (3.61).  

Just as importantly, the Patriots rank 15th in receptions allowed.  JSN’s impact may be more with volume than explosives, but he’s as versatile as any receiver in the NFL.  The best bet that also acknowledges his dominance is over 7.5 receptions.

Placing the Bet

If you put all of these legs together on PrizePicks, you get a payout of 12 times your bet, so $10 becomes $120!

You can also add a freebie like Drake Maye to pass for more than 0.5 yards, increasing your multiplier to 13.5 times your bet! There are restrictions, but you have options.

Let's end the football season in a blaze of glory!

🎰 Have you tried Parlay Generator?

Go to the Pine Sports home page and click on the ✨Free Parlay Generator button to get an instant AI-powered parlay for today’s games. Responses include all the relevant stats and insights plus direct betslip links to quickly add the plays to your sportsbook.

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