Aaron Rodgers is 42 years old and preparing to lead the Pittsburgh Steelers into a high-stakes AFC Wild Card matchup against the Houston Texans on Monday night. While we still don’t know his future should the Steelers lose tonight, a win would put him near the top of an exclusive list of 40-year-old QBs to win a playoff game.

Since 2017, Rodgers has been a force in the postseason, when he gets there. He's thrown for at least two touchdowns in seven of his last eight playoff appearances and surpassed 300 yards in four of eight. His ability to push the ball downfield remains elite, but the 4-4 record during that span tells a different story. Playoff football is decided by razor-thin margins, and individual brilliance doesn't always translate to victories.

Rodgers enters this matchup coming off a strong regular-season finale, completing 31 of 47 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown in a 26-24 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Now he faces a Texans defense that ranks 6th in pass defense and has been statistically dominant all season, ranking near the top of the league in yards and first downs allowed.

The 2025 Statistical Profile

Before projecting Monday night, here's what Rodgers did during the regular season. He finished with 327 completions on 498 attempts for 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. That breaks down to 20.44 completions per game, 207.62 passing yards per game, and 1.50 touchdowns per game. He ranked 9th among quarterbacks in completions, 14th in passing yards, and 13th in touchdowns.

Rodgers has been highly efficient, ranking 10th in the NFL with a 66.36% completion rate, but he faces a big challenge against a Houston defense that ranks 6th in the league against the pass and 7th against completions. The Texans are built to make quarterbacks uncomfortable, and Rodgers will need to rely on his short-to-intermediate passing game to move the chains.

Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Completions (-110)

Rodgers has been incredibly consistent in his passing game recently. He's cleared this 20.5 line in each of his last five games, averaging 25.0 completions over that span. Over his last ten games, he's hit it 70% of the time at a mean of 20.9, and his season average sits at 20.44.

While the Texans' defense is formidable, the Steelers' offensive scheme has relied heavily on Rodgers' efficiency to move the chains. The Texans rank 3rd in opponent completion percentage, but Pittsburgh's offense ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards after catch, meaning Rodgers doesn't need to air it out downfield to hit this number. Short, efficient passes to DK Metcalf and Kenneth Gainwell should allow him to rack up completions.

Aaron Rodgers Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-115)

While the Texans rank 6th in the NFL in pass defense, this line of 205.5 feels slightly low for a quarterback of Rodgers' caliber in a win-or-go-home scenario. Rodgers has surpassed this total in 80% of his last five games, including a 294-yard performance just last week, with an average of 247.2 yards. His season average of 207.62 is right in line with this number, but his "big game" history suggests he'll push for more.

The Steelers' offense ranks 2nd in yards after catch, meaning Rodgers doesn't have to do all the heavy lifting himself. Even if Houston's defense limits explosive plays, the efficiency and volume should be enough to clear this line.

🤖 Jaxon – Your Edge Against the Books

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It’s simple. It’s powerful. And your first questions are free.

🏈 Texans Playoff Props to Back on Monday Night

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

Watching Josh Allen power through multiple injuries to lead the Bills past Jacksonville reminds me of the knight in “Monty Python in the Holy Grail” boasting about his mere flesh wounds.  The truth is, that knight WISHES he were as tough as Josh Allen.

He played through hand and leg injuries, was evaluated for a concussion and came into the game dealing with a foot issue.  That’s an injury report that will be scrutinized for next weekend.  

War of Attrition

In the playoffs, the last team standing is often simply the healthiest team left standing.  You may not believe in the Seahawks or Broncos to make a run to the Super Bowl as #1 seeds, but they are among the healthiest.  

This explains why teams covet bye weeks and rest starters in Week 18—staying healthy matters more than momentum.

Texans at Steelers

That’s exactly why the Texans rested wide receiver Nico Collins last week.  He did not have an injury designation then or now, but the break is no less important.  Collins has dominated Houston's receiving production this season, out-gaining every other Texan receiver by a wide margin:

Collins O70.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

As Jaxon pointed out, over Collins’ last five games, his per-game average spiked from approximately 74 yards per game to 84 yards a contest.  Also, his 32% air yards share and 1,529 air yards this season (ninth in the NFL) means there’s potential for explosive plays.  

It may be predictable where the ball is going, but so are the results.  Back Nico Collins to go over his receiving yards prop.  

One Key Houston Injury

Running back Jawhar Jordan however will not play because of an ankle issue.  While not Houston’s primary ball-handler, Jordan did have a 101-yard outing just a few weeks ago.  

You might expect more touches for Woody Marks, who already leads the Texans in rushing attempts:

But, Marks may have already hit a ceiling.  So, Houston could then turn to a backup.

Chubb O15.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Nick Chubb is in his eighth season in the NFL, but the former Browns star remains a reliable veteran presence. With Jordan sidelined, expect Chubb to see expanded work. 

Pittsburgh's run defense has been porous, ranking 31st out of 32 teams in the league with 125 missed tackles. Chubb only needs to break one or two arm tackles to cruise past this modest number. I'm backing the Texans back to clear 16 rushing yards comfortably.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🪓 Another coach is on the chopping block. He doesn’t appreciate the questions about it. 

🧊 The ice is finally ready in Milan. Or at least almost ready.

✈️ $3 Million to cover Miami’s travel expenses for the Championship. They better roll up in Ferraris.

🏈 The Hoosiers are rewriting everything we know about college football. The most improbable title is one game away.

🏀 They just couldn’t wait to settle it on the playground. Three game suspension for fighting off-court.

🏒 Monday Night NHL Props

Three players on tonight’s slate have statistical profiles where recent form, role changes, and matchup advantages align. From a forward riding a perfect 10-game streak to a road warrior with an 85% hit rate away from home, these props are backed by volume trends and favorable defensive matchups.

Dawson Mercer Over 1.5 Shots On Goal (-148)

Mercer has been on a tear recently. He's hit the over on this line in 100% of his last 10 games, averaging 2.5 shots per game during that stretch. Over his last 20 games, he boasts an 80% hit rate with a mean of 2.35 shots. His season average of 2.11 shots per game is being weighed down by early-season usage limits.

On the road, Mercer has been even more aggressive. In 23 away games this season, he's hit the over 73.91% of the time, averaging 2.26 shots per game. The primary driver for this prop is Mercer's situational usage. New Jersey is dealing with key injuries and the coaching staff has leaned heavily on Mercer to provide more offensive production.

Mercer’s placement in the top six ensures he's skating alongside high-end playmakers who facilitate zone entries and create space. His current 11-game average suggests this line should be 2.5, making 1.5 at -148 strong value.

Matt Boldy Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-120)

Boldy has established himself as the high-volume shooting engine for the Minnesota Wild. He's averaging 3.28 shots on goal per game through 46 games this season, and his role as a focal point on the top power-play unit alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes ensures he maintains a high floor for shot volume.

Over his last 15 games, Boldy is averaging 3.20 shots on goal with a 66.67% hit rate on this over. His season-long hit rate sits at 67.4%, showing consistent performance above this line. In his most recent outing against the Islanders, Boldy recorded 6 shots on goal, and he's recorded 5 or more shots in four of his last ten games.

The matchup against New Jersey presents a favorable environment. Boldy is averaging 4:08 of power-play time per game, and in their last game, the top unit generated 5 shots on goal in 4:36 of man-advantage time. Boldy's positioning in the bumper and half-wall spots on the power play ensures he'll get quality looks.

Logan Stankoven Over 1.5 Shots On Goal (-130)

Stankoven has been a completely different player on the road this season. His road mean of 2.60 shots on goal is nearly a full shot higher than his home average, and he's cleared this 1.5 line in 17 of his 20 road contests (85%).

Over his last 20 games, Stankoven is averaging 2.0 shots per game, clearing the line in 65% of those matchups. Over his last 15 games, his volume has stayed consistent with a mean of 1.93 shots and a 66.67% hit rate. Even over his last 10 games, where his average dipped slightly to 1.60 shots, he still cleared the line in 60% of contests.

The Hurricanes face the Detroit Red Wings tonight, and Stankoven's road performance makes this one of the sharpest props on the board.

Did you tail?

Both underdog picks in our last edition cashed exactly as predicted. The Bears put together an incredible comeback against Green Bay's Parsons-less defense, while Brock Purdy and the 49ers' elite offensive efficiency proved too much for Philadelphia.

If you rode these plus-money plays, enjoy the profit! We’ve got more edges coming for the divisional round.

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