We’re running out of chances to talk baseball picks this season. Game 3 was great for us, Clement and Vladdy both cashed their hit props and Ohtani hit two more Home Runs to cash our +150 Series Home Run future.

On the note of Ohtani, he reached based nine times on Monday night with a perfect 1.000 average. He hit 4 for 4 including two home runs followed by five straight intentional walks.

It’s yet another Ohtani record that is unlikely to be broken, especially in a World Series game. The previous post season record was to to reach base 6 times, a crazy accomplishment, but we aren’t even factoring in the 4-4 hits/2 home runs part of his game 3 performance.

Last night, Ohtani added his contributions from the mound, although it wasn’t enough for the win. Other than one pitch that resulted in a 2-run home run in the 3rd, it’s hard to find many flaws in his performance. Six strikeouts in six Innings with just 2 earned runs from 4 hits. Then he started the 7th and was responsible for two more hits and runs before being replaced.

Tonight we have Round 2 between Yesavage and Snell on the mound. Neither pitched particularly well in Game 1. Snell allowed 5 runs from 8 hits in 5 innings and 100 pitches thrown. Yesavage racked up 80 pitches in a short 4 inning spell but only allowed 2 runs.

Vladdy and Ernie Clement have the most hits this post season and the Blue Jays strategy of contact hitting over power has been effective against the Dodgers’ power-first pitching. Guerrero is up to a 9-game streak, Clement up to 10 in-a-row. Both have over 70% Hit Rates against Lefties this season.

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🏈 Ravens vs Dolphins TNF Preview

The return of Lamar Jackson headlines the night, but the real story is how these two teams match up on efficiency and style. Baltimore sits near the top of the league in offensive DVOA and ranks second in yards per play at 6.54. Miami lags far behind at 5.65 yards per play and has struggled with consistency, especially since losing Tyreek Hill.

The Ravens’ offense thrives on balance and tempo. They’re the most efficient rushing team in football, averaging over five yards per carry and 133 rushing yards per game. That power run game, boosted by Derrick Henry and Jackson’s mobility, should feast against a Miami defense that ranks 29th in run DVOA and allows more than 145 rushing yards per game.

The problem for Baltimore is that their own defense hasn’t been much better. They’ve given up 30 points per game, one of the worst marks in the league, and have shown a tendency to let inferior teams hang around longer than expected.

The current spread of -7.5 reflects how heavily the market is leaning on Lamar Jackson’s impact but the Dolphins have quietly covered in four of their last six games, including an outright 34-10 win over Atlanta last week. Tua Tagovailoa looked comfortable for the first time in weeks, throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions, while rookie De’Von Achane continued to shine with another efficient day on the ground.

Baltimore should control the pace with their run game, but that’s exactly why the 7.5 points feel generous. A slower, clock-draining game limits possessions, and Miami has enough offensive life to stay within a score. The Ravens likely win, but the data and situational factors point to Miami covering.

Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-110)

Best Player Props for Ravens vs Dolphins

If the Ravens control the pace but the Dophins keep it close, there are a few key props that we can capitalize on.

Mark Andrews – Over 2.5 Receptions (-158)

With Lamar Jackson returning, the Ravens are likely to emphasize quick reads and controlled throws and no one benefits more from that than Andrews. He’s been Jackson’s most trusted target for years and operates as the release valve when pressure arrives. Miami ranks 25th in receptions allowed to Tight Ends, and their linebackers have consistently struggled to stay disciplined in zone coverage.

Andrews has cleared this mark in four of his last five games and averages 3.4 catches per contest on the year. Even modest usage should be enough to get him over the number given Baltimore’s tendency to funnel early downs toward Andrews in short-yardage situations.

De’Von Achane – Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

De’Von Achane’s explosiveness continues to redefine Miami’s ground game, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 67 rushing yards per game. He’s cleared this number in four of his last five and has been even stronger at home, averaging 85.6 yards per game in Miami. The Ravens’ defense ranks 23rd in rushing yards allowed to running backs, surrendering nearly 129 per game, and they’ve been particularly susceptible to speed backs who can exploit outside lanes.

The Dolphins ran for 141 yards last week in their win over Atlanta, signaling a clear intent to control tempo through the run game. Expect Mike McDaniel to lean on Achane early and often to keep Lamar Jackson off the field. Given the matchup and current form, Achane Over 60.5 rushing yards is a well-supported, high-value play for Thursday night.

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🏈 TNF Touchdown Scorers

Two strong touchdown targets stand out for Thursday night, one stepping into a new WR1 role and the other with a chance to dominate on the ground.

Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown (+145)

Jaylen Waddle is one of the most attractive values of the slate. With Tyreek Hill on Injured Reserve, Waddle becomes the clear top option for Tua Tagovailoa, particularly in the red zone where he already ranks fifth among wideouts in receptions.

The Ravens have been a weak link against receivers, ranking 29th in touchdowns allowed to the position. Waddle has scored in four of eight games this season, and the combination of expanded volume and a soft defensive matchup makes this a high-upside play at plus money.

Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+165)

Miami’s defense ranks dead last in touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks, and their heavy-blitzing approach often opens lanes for mobile QBs. Jackson has just one rushing score this season, but his history as a red-zone runner and the Dolphins’ bottom-tier defensive metrics point to positive regression.

Jackson has a legitimate shot to punch one in himself, making this a solid value pick for bettors looking to capitalize on his dual-threat potential.

🏀 NBA Usage Rates: Early-Season Risers

Injuries, load management, and roster experiments have opened the door for unexpected usage spikes across the league. A few young games are taking full advantage.

Austin Reaves has gone from a supporting role to the centerpiece of the Lakers offense almost overnight. With LeBron James yet to suit up and Luka Doncic sidelined, Reaves has been asked to do everything. Lucky for the Lakers, he is.

His 31.8% usage rate ranks ninth in the league, a staggering leap that’s translated into back-to-back 40-point games, including a 51-point explosion. Reaves isn’t just filling space; he’s carrying the team’s entire is offensive identity until the stars return.

In San Antonio, rookie guard Dylan Harper is proving he’s NBA-ready far sooner than expected. Drafted No. 2 overall, Harper stepped into the starting point guard role with De’Aaron Fox out and immediately looked comfortable. He’s averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds, and over 4 assists on nearly 49% shooting.

Harper’s 6-foot-7 frame allows him to defend multiple positions, giving the Spurs flexibility while Victor Wembanyama commands interior attention. Even when Fox returns, Harper’s early production might make it hard to take him off the floor.

Then there’s Philadelphia’s rookie revelation, VJ Edgecombe. The 76ers have been forced to turn to their young guards while Joel Embiid and Paul George sit out. VJ’s 34-point debut ranks as the third-highest ever for a first-year player and second-best of the shot clock era. Since then, he’s been a complete box-score threat, averaging nearly 50 fantasy points through three games while stuffing every statistical category.

Alongside Tyrese Maxey, he’s helping shape what might become the most exciting young backcourt in the league. Edgecombe is making it clear that youth is driving the Sixers’ early-season success.

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